Rasmus Ejrnæs

Science for a wilder Anthropocene: Synthesis and future directions for trophic rewilding research

Trophic rewilding is an ecological restoration strategy that uses species introductions to restore top-down trophic interactions and associated trophic cascades to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems. Given the importance of large animals in trophic cascades and their widespread losses and resulting trophic downgrading, it often focuses on restoring functional megafaunas. Trophic rewilding is increasingly being implemented for conservation, but remains controversial. Here, we provide a synthesis of its current scientific basis, highlighting trophic cascades as the key conceptual framework, discussing the main lessons learned from ongoing rewilding projects, systematically reviewing the current literature, and highlighting unintentional rewilding and spontaneous wildlife comebacks as underused sources of information. Together, these lines of evidence show that trophic cascades may be restored via species reintroductions and ecological replacements. It is clear, however, that megafauna effects may be affected by poorly understood trophic complexity effects and interactions with landscape settings, human activities, and other factors. Unfortunately, empirical research on trophic rewilding is still rare, fragmented, and geographically biased, with the literature dominated by essays and opinion pieces. We highlight the need for applied programs to include hypothesis testing and science-based monitoring, and outline priorities for future research, notably assessing the role of trophic complexity, interplay with landscape settings, land use, and climate change, as well as developing the global scope for rewilding and tools to optimize benefits and reduce human–wildlife conflicts. Finally, we recommend developing a decision framework for species selection, building on functional and phylogenetic information and with attention to the potential contribution from synthetic biology.

Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km(2) ) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m(2) units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km(2) units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km(2) units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46-72% of variation in LmT and 92-96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km(2) units peaked at 60-65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km(2) units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km(-1) ) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km(-1) ). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km(2) units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.

COMMUNITY ASSEMBLY IN EXPERIMENTAL GRASSLANDS: SUITABLE ENVIRONMENT OR TIMELY ARRIVAL?

It is hard to defend the view that biotic communities represent a simple and predictable response to the abiotic environment. Biota and the abiotic environment interact, and the environment of an individual certainly includes its neighbors and visitors in the community. The complexity of community assembly calls forth a quest for general principles, yet current results and theories on assembly rules differ widely. Using a grassland microcosm as a model system, we manipulated fertility, disturbance by defoliation, soil/microclimate, and arrival order of species belonging to two groups differing in functional attributes. We analyzed the outcome of community assembly dynamics in terms of species richness, invasibility, and species composition. The analyses revealed strong environmental control over species richness and invasibility. Species composition was mainly determined by the arrival order of species, indicating that historical contingency may change the outcome of community assembly. The probability for multiple equilibria appeared to increase with productivity and environmental stability. The importance of arrival order offers an explanation of the difficulties in predicting local occurrences of species in the field. In our experiment, variation in fertility and disturbance was controlling colonization with predictable effects on emergent community properties such as species richness. The key mechanism is suggested to be asymmetric competition, and our results show that this mechanism is relatively insensitive to the species through which it works. While our analyses indicate a positive and significant correlation between richness and invasibility, the significance disappears after accounting for the effect of the environment. The importance of arrival order (historical contingency) and environmental control supports the assumption of the unified neutral theory that different species within a trophic level can be considered functionally equivalent when it comes to community assembly. However, our results indicate that variation in asymmetric competition is the key factor determining the richness of the resulting communities, and this is far from neutral.

Putting plant resistance traits on the map: a test of the idea that plants are better defended at lower latitudes

• It has long been believed that plant species from the tropics have higher levels of traits associated with resistance to herbivores than do species from higher latitudes. A meta-analysis recently showed that the published literature does not support this theory. However, the idea has never been tested using data gathered with consistent methods from a wide range of latitudes. • We quantified the relationship between latitude and a broad range of chemical and physical traits across 301 species from 75 sites world-wide. • Six putative resistance traits, including tannins, the concentration of lipids (an indicator of oils, waxes and resins), and leaf toughness were greater in high-latitude species. Six traits, including cyanide production and the presence of spines, were unrelated to latitude. Only ash content (an indicator of inorganic substances such as calcium oxalates and phytoliths) and the properties of species with delayed greening were higher in the tropics. • Our results do not support the hypothesis that tropical plants have higher levels of resistance traits than do plants from higher latitudes. If anything, plants have higher resistance toward the poles. The greater resistance traits of high-latitude species might be explained by the greater cost of losing a given amount of leaf tissue in low-productivity environments.

Can we trust gradients extracted by Detrended Correspondence Analysis

. In this study, data from dry temperate grassland vegetation in Denmark are used to compare the predictive power of gradients obtained by ordination. One of the problems of ordination methods based on weighted averaging, namely the assumption of symmetric, unimodal response curves, is investigated by smoothing species responses to simple and complex gradients respectively. It was found that species response types to a pH gradient are diverse and often deviate from a unimodal, symmetrical shape. Bimodal responses were also found, but they disappeared when more influential gradients were considered. Many species showed truncated responses with optima near gradient ends. In order to assess the impact of unrealistic response assumptions and reported problems with instability on the performance of DCA, the predictive potentials of measured variables and coenoclines extracted by DCA were compared. Despite field data violating the assumption of unimodal response, DCA was found to extract gradients predicting species abundance better than the environmental variables available. Shortcomings and advantages of indirect and direct methods in plant ecology are discussed.

Strong microsite control of seedling recruitment in tundra.

The inclusion of environmental variation in studies of recruitment is a prerequisite for realistic predictions of the responses of vegetation to a changing environment. We investigated how seedling recruitment is affected by seed availability and microsite quality along a steep environmental gradient in dry tundra. A survey of natural seed rain and seedling density in vegetation was combined with observations of the establishment of 14 species after sowing into intact or disturbed vegetation. Although seed rain density was closely correlated with natural seedling establishment, the experimental seed addition showed that the microsite environment was even more important. For all species, seedling emergence peaked at the productive end of the gradient, irrespective of the adult niches realized. Disturbance promoted recruitment at all positions along the environmental gradient, not just at high productivity. Early seedling emergence constituted the main temporal bottleneck in recruitment for all species. Surprisingly, winter mortality was highest at what appeared to be the most benign end of the gradient. The results highlight that seedling recruitment patterns are largely determined by the earliest stages in seedling emergence, which again are closely linked to microsite quality. A fuller understanding of microsite effects on recruitment with implications for plant community assembly and vegetation change is provided.

Gradient analysis of dry grassland vegetation in Denmark

Abstract. We present a gradient analysis of 620 vegetation samples covering most of the floristic and environmental variation in semi-natural grassland vegetation on well-drained soils in Denmark. Vegetation was sampled using frequency in subplots. Explanatory variables were surface inclination, aspect, pH, geographical co-ordinates together with indications of soil type. Detrended Correspondence Analysis revealed four floristic gradients that could be interpreted in ecological terms by measured variables supplemented with site calibrations based on weighted averaging of Ellenbergs indicator values. All four axes were interpreted using rank correlation statistics, and linear and non-linear multiple regression of sample scores on explanatory variables. The first gradient was from dry calcareous to humid acidic grasslands; the second reflected an underlying gradient in fertility; the third reflected regional differentiation and the fourth was associated with variation in intensity of competition as indicated by association with calibrated Grime-CSR values for the plots. We applied subset ordination to the data as a supplement to traditional permutation and correlation statistics to assess the consistency of ordination results. DCA axes 1 and 2 were consistent in space and time. This gradient analysis is discussed in a context of plant strategy theory and species diversity models. Ecocline patterns lend support to the view that grazing not only favours the ruderal strategy but also the stress-tolerant strategy. The low rank of competition as an explanatory variable for the floristical gradients supports the notion that competitive effects play a subordinate role for species composition compared to microclimate and soil conditions in infertile semi-natural grasslands.

High herbivore density associated with vegetation diversity in interglacial ecosystems

Significance Megafaunas have been decimated worldwide during the last 50,000 y, with poorly understood ecosystem consequences. In Europe, the ability of the extinct megafauna to generate structurally diverse vegetation within the temperate forest biome is controversial and has important implications for conservation management. We used paleoecological beetle data to reconstruct the abundance of large herbivores and the vegetation structure in Great Britain before and after the megafaunal extinctions. We found indications of high abundances of large herbivores and a mosaic of closed forest and wood–pasture vegetation in the last interglacial period and primarily closed forests with lower herbivore abundance in the early Holocene. These findings support an important role for large herbivores in driving vegetation dynamics and in current efforts to promote landscape diversity through rewilding. The impact of large herbivores on ecosystems before modern human activities is an open question in ecology and conservation. For Europe, the controversial wood–pasture hypothesis posits that grazing by wild large herbivores supported a dynamic mosaic of vegetation structures at the landscape scale under temperate conditions before agriculture. The contrasting position suggests that European temperate vegetation was primarily closed forest with relatively small open areas, at most impacted locally by large herbivores. Given the role of modern humans in the world-wide decimations of megafauna during the late Quaternary, to resolve this debate it is necessary to understand herbivore–vegetation interactions before these losses. Here, a synthetic analysis of beetle fossils from Great Britain shows that beetles associated with herbivore dung were better represented during the Last Interglacial (132,000–110,000 y B.P., before modern human arrival) than in the early Holocene (10,000–5,000 y B.P.). Furthermore, beetle assemblages indicate closed and partially closed forest in the early Holocene but a greater mixture of semiopen vegetation and forest in the Last Interglacial. Hence, abundant and diverse large herbivores appear to have been associated with high structural diversity of vegetation before the megafauna extinctions at the end of the Pleistocene. After these losses and in the presence of modern humans, large herbivores generally were less abundant, and closed woodland was more prevalent in the early Holocene. Our findings point to the importance of the formerly rich fauna of large herbivores in sustaining structurally diverse vegetation in the temperate forest biome and provide support for recent moves toward rewilding-based conservation management.

The impact of temperature regimes on development, dormancy breaking and germination of dwarf shrub seeds from arctic, alpine and boreal sites

It has been suggested that the infrequent sexual reproduction of arctic dwarf shrubs might be related to the harsh environmental conditions in which they live. If this is the case, then increases in temperature resulting from global climate change might drastically affect regeneration of arctic species. We examined whether recruitment of Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum and Vaccinium uliginosum (hereafter E. nigrum and V. uliginosum) was affected by temperature during three reproductive stages: seed development, dormancy breakage and germination. Seeds were collected from an arctic, an alpine (only E. nigrum) and a boreal site with different climates; stored at different winter temperatures and incubated for germination at different temperatures. Seeds of V. uliginosum developed in the boreal region had a higher percentage germination than did seeds developed in the Arctic. In contrast, seeds of E. nigrum from the arctic site had a higher or similar percentage germination than did seeds from the alpine and boreal sites. Increased winter temperatures had no significant effect on resulting germination percentage of E. nigrum. However, V. uliginosum seeds from the arctic site suffered increased fungal attack (and thus decreased germination) when they were stratified under high winter temperatures. Seeds of both species increased germination with increased incubation temperatures. Our results suggest that both species would increase their germination in response to warmer summers. Longer summers might also favour the slow-germinating E. nigrum. However, increased winter temperatures might increase mortality due to fungal attack in V. uliginosum ecotypes that are not adapted to mild winters.

Mammal predator and prey species richness are strongly linked at macroscales

Predator-prey interactions play an important role for species composition and community dynamics at local scales, but their importance in shaping large-scale gradients of species richness remains unexplored. Here, we use global range maps, structural equation models (SEM), and comprehensive databases of dietary preferences and body masses of all terrestrial, non-volant mammals worldwide, to test whether (1) prey bottom-up or predator top-down relationships are important drivers of broad-scale species richness gradients once the environment and human influence have been accounted for, (2) predator-prey richness associations vary among biogeographic regions, and (3) body size influences large-scale covariation between predators and prey. SEMs including only productivity, climate, and human factors explained a high proportion of variance in prey richness (R2=0.56) but considerably less in predator richness (R2=0.13). Adding predator-to-prey or prey-to-predator paths strongly increased the explained variance in both cases (prey R2=0.79, predator R2=0.57), suggesting that predator-prey interactions play an important role in driving global diversity gradients. Prey bottom-up effects prevailed over productivity, climate, and human influence to explain predator richness, whereas productivity and climate were more important than predator top-down effects for explaining prey richness, although predator top-down effects were still significant. Global predator-prey associations were not reproduced in all regions, indicating that distinct paleoclimate and evolutionary histories (Africa and Australia) may alter species interactions across trophic levels. Stronger cross-trophic-level associations were recorded within categories of similar body size (e.g., large prey to large predators) than between them (e.g., large prey to small predators), suggesting that mass-related energetic and physiological constraints influence broad-scale richness links, especially for large-bodied mammals. Overall, our results support the idea that trophic interactions can be important drivers of large-scale species richness gradients in combination with environmental effects.