Rasmus Fatum

Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market

Sterilized foreign exchange market intervention may affect the exchange rate if it signals future monetary policy actions. Signaling will be effective if the central bank backs up intervention with predictable changes in the stance of monetary policy and, in turn, affects current expectations. The authors investigate whether intervention operations in the United States are related to changes in expectations over the stance of future monetary policy. Expected changes in policy are inferred from changes in second- and third-nearby Federal funds futures rates. They also test the signaling hypothesis using survey-based measures of expected short-term interest rate changes. Estimates obtained from a GARCH time-series model over the 1989-93 period do not support the signaling hypothesis: dollar-support intervention is not related to a rise in expected future short-term interest rates (monetary tightening). However, intervention significantly increases the conditional variance of Federal funds future rates, suggesting that it adds considerable noise to the market.

Monetary Policy News and Exchange Rate Responses: Do Only Surprises Matter?

This paper shows that exchange rates respond to only the surprise component of an actual US monetary policy change and that failure to disentangle the surprise component from the actual monetary policy change can lead to an underestimation of the impact of monetary policy, or even to a false acceptance of the hypothesis that monetary policy has no impact on exchange rates. This finding implies that there is a need for reexamining the empirical analyses of asset price responses to macro news that do not isolate the unexpected component of news from the expected element. In addition, we add to the debate on how quickly exchange rates respond to news by showing that the exchange rates under study absorb monetary policy surprises within the same day as the news are announced.

ECB Foreign Exchange Intervention and the EURO: Institutional Framework, News and Intervention

Using a unique intervention “news” data set, this paper investigates the impact of ECB intervention and intervention-related news (newswire reports) on the Euro exchange rate. A time-series study of news generated by ECB officials and market participants regarding intervention and the value of the Euro as well as an event study of firm reports of ECB intervention is conducted. Both studies find significant short-run effects on the Euro value, while only “negative” statements (official statements denying past intervention or ruling out future intervention) appear to have persistent effects.

Foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy in Japan, 2003–04

This article examines the rationale behind the massive increase in Japanese foreign exchange market intervention operations in 2003-04, and evaluates its effectiveness both in limiting yen exchange rate appreciation and influencing the direction of monetary policy. The two main questions addressed in this study are: Was the intervention effective in slowing exchange rate appreciation compared to a counterfactual case with no intervention? And, has intervention on such a large scale authorized by the Ministry of Finance been able to directly influence liquidity creation or indirectly influence the stance of Bank of Japan policy?

Do Exchange Rates Respond to Day-to-day Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations When No Monetary Policy Changes Occur?

This paper addresses whether exchange rates respond to changes in expectations of future U.S. monetary policy when no actual monetary policy changes occur. We employ data on Federal funds futures contracts for extracting a measure of policy expectations, control for the surprise element of macroeconomic news and policy developments, and analyze more than 12 years of daily exchange rate data. Our findings show that continuous day-to-day changes in expectations of future monetary policy are associated in a highly significant and systematic way with day-to-day changes in exchange rates even when no actual monetary policy changes occur. This suggests that monetary policy matters for daily exchange rate determination in more ways than merely through infrequent, actual policy changes.

Evaluating foreign exchange market intervention: Self-selection, counterfactuals and average treatment effects

Studies of central bank intervention are complicated by the fact that we typically observe intervention only during periods of turbulent exchange markets. Furthermore, entering the market during these particular periods is a conscious “self-selection” choice made by the intervening central bank. We estimate the “counterfactual” exchange rate movements that allow us to determine what would have occurred in the absence of intervention and we introduce the method of propensity score matching to the intervention literature in order to estimate the “average treatment effect” (ATE) of intervention. Specifically, we estimate the ATE for daily Bank of Japan intervention over the January 1999 to March 2004 period. This sample encompasses a remarkable variation in intervention frequencies as well as unprecedented frequent intervention towards the latter part of the period. We find that the effects of intervention vary dramatically and inversely with the frequency of intervention: Intervention is effective over the 1999 to 2002 period, ineffective during 2003 and counterproductive during the first quarter of 2004.

Real-Time Effects of Central Bank Interventions in the Euro Market

This paper investigates the real-time effects of foreign exchange intervention using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Denmark is currently pursuing an active intervention policy under the provisions of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) and intervenes on a discretionary basis when considered necessary. Prior participation in ERM II is a requirement for adoption of the Euro. Therefore, our study is of particular relevance for the new European Union member states that are either currently participating in ERM II or expected to do so at a later date as well as for Denmark. Our analysis employs the two-step weighted least squares estimation procedure of Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Vega (2003) and an array of robustness tests. We find that intervention exerts a statistically and economically significant influence on exchange rate returns when the direction of intervention is consistent with fundamentals and intervention is carried out during a period of high exchange rate volatility. We also show that the exchange rate does not adjust instantaneously to the unannounced and discretionary interventions under study. We conclude that intervention can be an important short-term policy instrument for exchange rate management.

Daily Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Evidence from Official Bank of Canada Data

This paper analyzes the effects of official, daily Bank of Canada intervention in the CAD/USD exchange rate market over the January 1995 to September 1998 period. Using an event study methodology and different criteria for effectiveness, movements in the CAD/USD exchange rate over the 1 through 10 days surrounding intervention events are investigated. It is shown that Bank of Canada intervention was systematically associated with both a change in the direction and a smoothing of the CAD/USD exchange rate. Bank of Canada intervention did not, however, succeed in reducing the volatility of the CAD/USD exchange rate. Additionally, the paper introduces the issue of currency co-movements to the intervention literature. It is shown that the effects of intervention are weakened when adjusting for general currency co-movements against the USD, suggesting that currency co-movements should be taken into account when addressing the effects of central bank intervention aimed at managing a minor currency vis-a-vis a major currency.

Post-Plaza intervention in the DEM/USD exchange rate

In this paper, whether specific methods of conducting central bank interventions increase the likelihood of achieving its objectives in analysed. Daily Bundesbank and Fed intervention data covering the entire Post-Plaza period are used to estimate binary choice models over the sample of observations when at least one of the two central banks were intervening. The results suggest that central banks can, in fact, improve the likelihood of success primarily through coordination and that unilateral intervention conducted by the Bundesbank appears to have been destabilizing. Furthermore, it is shown that relatively infrequent intervention has a higher likelihood of success.

Rules versus Discretion in Foreign Exchange Intervention: Evidence from Official Bank of Canada High-Frequency Data

This paper analyzes official, high-frequency Bank of Canada intervention and exchange rate data (the latter quoted at the end of every 5-minute interval over every 24-hour period) over the January 1995 to September 1998 time-period. The data is of particular interest as it spans over two distinctly different intervention regimes – one characterized by purely rules-based (“mechanistic”) intervention versus one characterized by both rules-based and discretionary intervention. This unique feature of the data allows for both a comparison of the effects of rules-based version discretionary intervention and a general investigation of intraday effects of intervention. Employing an event-study methodology and three different criteria for success, the study presents strong evidence showing that intervention systematically affects movements in the CAD/USD and in the desired direction along with some evidence that intervention is associated with a reduction of exchange rate volatility. Interestingly, there is no indication that discretionary intervention is more effective than rules-based intervention.