Raul Markus

Lessons From The EU-Russia Sanctions 2014-2015

Abstract This article analyzes and discusses the objectives of the sanctions implemented by the European Union against Russia and Russian countermeasures against EU member states in 2014-2015, by comparing the official aims with the options expressed in theoretical debates and experiences gained from historical lessons. In principle, the study seeks an answer to the question: what could be realistically achieved as a result of the current form of restricted sanctions and what stays beyond their reach. Methodologically, this article focuses on the evaluation of the ability of theoretical models to explain the logic of anti-Russian sanctions and debates the options of the outcomes of current formation of sanctions in light of theoretical models.

The bust, the boom and the sanctions in trade relations with Russia

Next to the growing tensions in global economic arena, the challenges for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are often related to Russia’s actions and ambitions. Mutual economic relations have been particularly tense at the beginning of the 1990s, in 1995–1997 and then in 2007–2009, when Russia has imposed sanctions against the Baltic countries and has been putting economic, political or propagandist pressure on them. The current “sanctioning war” is seriously testing the mutual economic relations again and is raising the question whether there is a hope for normalization of trade relations in the nearest future between the Baltic countries and Russia. Thus, the article focuses on the trade dynamics between the Baltic countries and Russia over the period 2004–2016 and analyses the main factors that have influenced this trade dynamics. The article will also debate the outlook for trade relations to be normal again in the light of the sanctioning war between Russia and the EU and its allies.

European Normative Power During Ukrainian-Russian Conflict

Abstract During last two decades the European Union as “normative power Europe” has been associated with the export of certain universal norms, rules and practices to the other countries. Rule of law, democracy, strong commitment to human rights and fundamental freedoms, and social justice — these principles form the core of the identity of the European Union. Relying on shared political, economic and cultural ties among member states, the EU has sought to promote these norms also in the neighbouring countries, including Russia. However, the outbreak of the violent conflict between Russia and Ukraine at the end of 2013 clearly demonstrates that the EU has failed in its efforts in Russia despite extensive mutual relations and comprehensive financial support provided by the EU. The aim of the current article is to analyse how consistent the EU has been in defending and promoting European values and norms in the international arena and with Russia during the Ukrainian-Russian conflict.

Die Wirtschaftssanktionen Als Die Mittel Der Internationalen Druck (Economic Sanctions as a Component of International Political Pressure)

German Abstract: Die vorliegende Studie konzentriert sich auf die Frage, ob die theoretischen Grundlagen und die bisherigen Erfahrungen darauf hinweisen, das die vom Westen gegen Russland verhangte Sanktionen den gewunschten Erfolg bringen konnten. Dabei leitet die Analyse aus der Logik aus, das das Ziel der Sanktionen ist, den anderen beteiligten Seite den grostmoglichen wirtschaftlichen Druck auszuuben, um den Gegner zu zwingen das ?Spiel? zu verlassen. Die EU und die Vereinigten Staaten erwarten, das Russland den wirtschaftlichen Druck mittelfristig nicht ausuben wird und die Destabilisierung der Ostukraine beenden wird. Russland dagegen hofft die Auswirkung der westlichen Sanktionen wenigstens langer standzuhalten als die Ukraine, um sich dabei die taktischen Vorteile zu verschaffen. In diesem Kontext ist es wichtig die potenziellen Quellen der Auswirkung der Sanktionen gegen Russland zu identifizieren und den Umfang des Drucks zu bezeichnen.English Abstract: To stop the conflict in Ukraine, in 2014 the European Union (EU), the United States and others western countries have introduced targeted sanctions against Russia, which where followed by countermeasures imposed by Russia. While the USA and the EU (including Estonia) are expecting that Russia will be unable to adapt to the pressure of sanctions at least in mid-term, Russia expects to last longer than Ukraine to get tactical advantage. The aim of the research is to analyse whether sanctions against Russia have the economic potential to work. The authors suggest that based both on theory and previous practical experience, the direct economic impact of the EU-sanctions is relatively modest. However, the indirect pressure on the Russian economy exercised by the decrease in oil prices in the world market and the reaction of the financial markets, combined with the sanctions have at least potential to lead to the acceptable political solution from the perspective of the EU and the USA.

Die Wirtschaftssanktionen als die Mittel der internationalen Druck während der russisch-ukrainischen Krise. Majandussanktsioonid kui rahvusvaheline survemeede: kui suured on eduvõimalused Venemaa-Ukraina kriisi puhul

To stop the conflict in Ukraine, in 2014 the European Union (EU), the United States and others western countries have introduced targeted sanctions against Russia, which where followed by countermeasures imposed by Russia. While the USA and the EU (including Estonia) are expecting that Russia will be unable to adapt to the pressure of sanctions at least in mid-term, Russia expects to last longer than Ukraine to get tactical advantage. The aim of the research is to analyse whether sanctions against Russia have the economic potential to work. The authors suggest that based both on theory and previous practical experience, the direct economic impact of the EU-sanctions is relatively modest. However, the indirect pressure on the Russian economy exercised by the decrease in oil prices in the world market and the reaction of the financial markets, combined with the sanctions have at least potential to lead to the acceptable political solution from the perspective of the EU and the USA