Raven Molloy

Declining migration within the US: the role of the labor market

Interstate migration has decreased steadily since the 1980s. We show that this trend is not primarily related to demographic and socioeconomic factors, but instead appears to be connected to a concurrent secular decline in labor market transitions. We explore a number of reasons for the declines in geographic and labor market transitions, and find the strongest support for explanations related to a decrease in the net benefit to changing employers. Our preferred interpretation is that the distribution of relevant outside offers has shifted in a way that has made labor market transitions, and thus geographic transitions, less desirable to workers.

Does tax policy affect executive compensation? evidence from postwar tax reforms

The trends in executive pay and labor income tax rates since the 1940s suggest a high elasticity of taxable income with respect to tax policy. By contrast, the level and structure of executive compensation have been largely unresponsive to tax incentives since the 1980s. However, the relative tax advantage of different forms of pay was small during this period. Using a sample of top executives in large firms from 1946 to 2005, we also find a small short run response of salaries, qualified stock options, and bonuses paid after retirement to changes in tax rates on labor income — even though tax rates were significantly higher and more heterogeneous across individuals in the first several decades following WWII. We explore several potential explanations for the conflicting impressions given by the long-run and short-run correlations between taxes and pay, including changes in social norms and concerns about pay equality.

The Effect of Gasoline Prices on Household Location

By raising commuting costs, an increase in gasoline prices should reduce the demand for housing in areas far from employment centers relative to locations closer to jobs. Using annual panel data on a large number of postal codes and municipalities from 1981 to 2008, we find that a 10% increase in gas prices leads to a 10% decrease in construction in locations with a long average commute relative to other locations but to no significant change in house prices. Thus, the supply response prevents the change in housing demand from capitalizing in house prices.

The Postforeclosure Experience of U.S. Households

Despite the recent flood of foreclosures on residential mortgages, little is known about what happens to borrowers’ households after their mortgages have been foreclosed. We study the postforeclosure experience of U.S. households using a unique data set based on the credit reports of a large panel of individuals from 1999 to 2010. Although foreclosure considerably raises the probability of moving, the majority of postforeclosure migrants do not end up in substantially less desirable neighborhoods or more crowded living conditions. These results suggest that, on average, foreclosure does not impose an economic burden large enough to severely reduce housing consumption.

The post-foreclosure experience of U.S. households

Despite the recent flood of foreclosures on residential mortgages, little is known about what happens to borrowers and their households after their mortgage has been foreclosed. We study the post-foreclosure experience of U.S. households using a unique dataset based on the credit reports of a large panel of individuals to from 1999 to 2010. Although foreclosure considerably raises the probability of moving, the majority of post-foreclosure migrants do not end up in substantially less desirable neighborhoods or more crowded living conditions. These results suggest that, on average, foreclosure does not impose an economic burden large enough to severely reduce housing consumption.

Job Changing and the Decline in Long-Distance Migration in the United States

Interstate migration in the United States has decreased steadily since the 1980s, but little is known about the causes of this decline. We show that declining migration is related to a concurrent secular decline in job changing. Neither trend is primarily due to observable demographic or socioeconomic factors. Rather, we argue that the decline in job changing has caused the decline in migration. After establishing a role for the labor market in declining migration, we turn to the question of why job changing has become less frequent over the past several decades. We find little support for several explanations, including the rise of dual-career households, the decline in middle-skill jobs, occupational licensing, and the need for employees to retain health insurance. Thus, the reasons for these dual trends remain opaque and should be explored further.

Understanding Declining Fluidity in the U.S. Labor Market

In this paper, we first document a clear, downward trend in labor market fluidity that is common across a variety of measures of worker and job turnover. This trend began in the early 1980s, if not somewhat earlier. Next, we present evidence for a variety of hypotheses that might explain this downward trend, which is only partly related to population demographics and is not due to the secular shift in industrial composition. Moreover, this decline in labor market fluidity seems unlikely to have been caused by an improvement in worker–firm matching or by mounting regulatory strictness in the labor or housing markets. Plausible avenues for further exploration include changes in the worker–firm relationship, particularly with regard to compensation adjustment; changes in firm characteristics, such as firm size and age; and a decline in social trust, which may have increased the cost of job searches or made both parties in the hiring process more risk averse.

Pay cuts for the boss: Executive compensation in the 1940s

Executive pay fell during the 1940s, marking the last notable decrease in the past 70 years. We study this decline using a new panel data set on the remuneration of top executives in 246 firms. Government regulation—including explicit salary restrictions and taxation—had, at best, a modest effect on executive pay. By contrast, a decline in the returns to firm size and an increase in the power of labor unions contributed greatly to the reduction in executive compensation relative to other workers’ earnings from 1940 to 1946. The continued decrease in relative executive pay remains largely unexplained.

Business Investor Activity in the Single-Family-Housing Market

We discuss recent purchase activity by business investors in the market for single-family homes and consider the possible benefits and risks of this activity.

Large-Scale Buy-to-Rent Investors in the Single-Family Housing Market: The Emergence of a New Asset Class: Large-Scale Buy-to-Rent Investors in the Single-Family Housing Market

In 2012, several large firms began purchasing single-family homes, creating large portfolios of rental property, and securitizing these investments in capital markets. We present the first systematic evidence on this new investor activity in order to shed light on the factors that have supported its emergence. Three key factors were the ample supply of property for sale, tight mortgage financing, and a decrease in acquisition and managerial costs brought about by technological advances. In addition, we show that buy-to-rent investors appear to have supported house prices in the neighborhoods where they concentrated. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved