Ravi P. Shukla

The dominant intraseasonal mode of intraseasonal South Asian summer monsoon

From June through September, the intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon is dominated by the so-called “monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO).” This paper provides a comprehensive description of the MISO based on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The MISO is characterized by alternating active periods, in which the primary rain area of the Asian summer monsoon that stretches from the northern Arabian Sea east southeastward almost all the way to the northwest Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone is relatively intense, and break periods, in which the heaviest rainfall shifts from south Asia to the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. The MISO is attended by well-defined but weak sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations whose phase is indicative of a negative feedback upon the atmospheric perturbations. Meridional profile of variables on the various regression maps shown in this paper averaged along a set of tilted axes parallel to the west-northwest to east-southeast (WNW-ESE) sloping lines in empirical orthogonal function 1 of OLR have been made, and it is found that the strongest westerly 850 hPa wind anomalies are located two grid points (5° of latitude) to the south of the reference latitude. At the 150 hPa level, the meridional profile of divergence is closely aligned with the OLR profile. SST profile is lowest at approximately 2.5° of latitude to the south of the minimum OLR and 2.5° to the north of the strongest westerly 850 hPa wind anomalies. The sea level pressure profiles and the midlower tropospheric geopotential height profiles are almost in phase. It is observed that in most years, there are two–three bands of intensified and suppressed rainfall that cross the reference line from south to north (northward propagating) at the interval of 30–60 days over South Asia. The degree of correspondence between the MISO and active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is also documented.

Simulation of the South Asian Monsoon in a Coupled Model with an Embedded Cloud-Resolving Model

AbstractThe simulation of the South Asian monsoon by a coupled ocean–atmosphere model with an embedded cloud-resolving model is analyzed on intraseasonal and interannual time scales. The daily modes of variability in the superparameterized Community Climate System Model, version 3 (SP-CCSM), are compared with those in observation, the superparameterized Community Atmospheric Model, version 3 (SP-CAM3), and the control simulation of CCSM (CT-CCSM) with conventional parameterization of convection. The CT-CCSM fails to simulate the observed intraseasonal oscillations but is able to generate the atmospheric El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode, although with regular biennial variability. The dominant modes of variability extracted from daily anomalies of outgoing longwave radiation, precipitation, and low-level horizontal wind in SP-CCSM consist of two intraseasonal oscillations and two seasonally persisting modes, in good agreement with observation. The most significant observed features of the intraseas...

Mean state and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon simulation by NCEP CFSv2

The capability of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is evaluated in the context of the global monsoon in the Indo-Pacific domain and its variability. Although the CFSv2 captures the ISM spatial structure qualitatively, it demonstrates a severe dry bias over the Indian subcontinent. The weaker model monsoon may be related to an excessive surface convergence over the equatorial Indian Ocean, which reduces the moisture transport toward the Indian subcontinent. The excessively low equatorial pressure is in turn a part of a tropical-wise bias with the largest errors in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific associated with the cold sea surface temperature bias and an overly strong inter-tropical convergence zone. In this sense, the model bias in the tropical Pacific influences those in the Indian Ocean-ISM region substantially. The leading mode of the June–September averaged CFSv2 rainfall anomalies covering the ISM and its adjacent oceanic regions is qualitatively similar to that of the observations, characterized by a spatial pattern of strong anomalies over either side of the Indian peninsula as well as center of opposite sign over Myanmar. However, the model fails to reproduce the northward expansion of rainfall anomalies from Myanmar, leading to opposite anomalies over northeast India and Himalayas region. A substantial amount of the anomalous fluctuation is attributed to the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although the model variability depends more strongly on ENSO. The active regional influences in the observations may contribute to its baroclinic vertical structure of the geopotential height anomalies in the ISM region, compared with the predominantly barotropic one in CFSv2. Model ENSO deficiencies also affects its ISM simulation significantly.

Interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon associated with the air–sea feedback in the northern Indian Ocean

Using observation-based analyses, this study identifies the leading interannual pattern of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) independent of ENSO and examines the potential mechanisms of its formation. For this purpose, an objective procedure is used to isolate the variability of the summer precipitation associated with the contemporary ENSO state and in previous winter–spring, which influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region in opposite ways. It is shown that the leading pattern of these ENSO-related monsoon rainfall anomalies reproduces some major ISMR features and well represents its connections to the global-scale ENSO features in both lower and upper troposphere. On the other hand, the leading pattern derived from the precipitation anomalies with the ENSO component removed in the ISM and surrounding region also accounts for a substantial amount of the monsoon precipitation centered at the eastern coast of the subtropical Arabian Sea, extending into both the western Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent. The associated atmospheric circulation change is regional in nature, mostly confined in the lower to mid troposphere centered in the Arabian Sea, with a mild connection to an opposite tendency centered at the South China Sea. Further analyses show that this regional pattern is associated with a thermodynamic air–sea feedback during early to mid summer season. Specifically, before the monsoon onset, an anomalous atmospheric high pressure over the Arabian Sea causes excessive shortwave radiation to the sea surface and increases SST in May. The warm SST anomalies peak in June and reduce the sea level pressure. The anomalous cyclonic circulation generates regional convection and precipitation, which also induces subsidence and anticyclonic circulation over the South China Sea. The combined cyclonic–anticyclonic circulation further transport moisture from the western Pacific into the Indian Ocean and causes its convergence into the Arabian Sea. As a result, the regional cyclone is further enhanced and expanded to the Indian subcontinent in July. The substantial reduction of the solar radiation, however, cools down the sea surface and causes the decay of the circulation in August. This study suggests that the pre-monsoon Arabian Sea condition may be an important contributor to the ISM predictability from monthly to seasonal scales.

Simulations of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations with the Climate Forecast System, version 2, over India and the Western Pacific: Role of Air–Sea Coupling

Abstract In this study, we examine the characteristics of the boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) using the second version of the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and revisit the role of air–sea coupling in BSISO simulations. In particular, simulations of the BSISO in two carefully designed model experiments are compared: a fully coupled run and an uncoupled atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) run with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). In these experiments an identical AGCM is used, and the daily mean SSTs from the coupled run are prescribed as a boundary condition in the AGCM run. Comparisons indicate that air–sea coupling plays an important role in realistically simulating the BSISO in CFSv2. Compared with the AGCM run, the coupled run not only simulates the spatial distributions of intraseasonal rainfall variations better but also shows more realistic spectral peaks and northward and eastward propagation features of the BSISO over India and the western Pacific. This study indicates that including an air–sea feedback mechanism may have the potential to improve the realism of the mean flow and intraseasonal variability in the Indian and western Pacific monsoon region.

Subseasonal Prediction of Significant Wave Heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean Region

AbstractThe bias and skill of multi-week predictions of significant wave height (SWH) in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean (WP–IO) region are investigated. The WaveWatch III (WW3) model is forced with daily 10-m winds from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), retrospective forecasts (CFSR). Reforecasts using January and May initial conditions for the period 1999–2009 are considered. The main features of the climatological mean 10-m winds in weeks 1–4 are well captured by CFSv2, although the magnitude of the bias increases with lead time over much of the region in both the January and May cases. The CFSv2–WW3 system similarly captures the magnitude and spatial structure of SWH in weeks 1–4 well in both cases; however, the magnitude of the positive biases increases with lead time over the Southern Ocean (SO), the South China Sea, and the northwestern Pacific region in the January cases, and over SO in the May cases. The magnitude of the SWH ...