Ravi S. Nanjundiah

Role of Asian and African orography in Indian summer monsoon

Role of Asian and African orography in the Indian summer monsoon has been investigated using a general circulation model. Orography of Asian region west of 80°E appears to have more impact on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall than the orography to the east of 80°E. It has been found that removal of the African orography increases the seasonal precipitation over the Indian sub-continent by 28%, whereas removal of orography over the entire globe reduces it by 25%. Moreover, there was a substantial delay in all-India monsoon onset in the experiment in which mountains were removed globally, mainly due to the intrusion of midlatitude dry air west of 80°E. The increase in precipitation in which orography over Africa was removed was due to the positive feedback between the wind over the East African coast/Arabian Sea and precipitation over Bay of Bengal, with the latter leading the former by about 2 days.

A gradient-based comparison measure for visual analysis of multifield data

We introduce a multifield comparison measure for scalar fields that helps in studying relations between them. The comparison measure is insensitive to noise in the scalar fields and to noise in their gradients. Further, it can be computed robustly and efficiently. Results from the visual analysis of various data sets from climate science and combustion applications demonstrate the effective use of the measure.

How good are the simulations of tropical SST-rainfall relationship by IPCC AR4 atmospheric and coupled models?

The failure of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by prescribed SST to simulate and predict the interannual variability of Indian/Asian monsoon has been widely attributed to their inability to reproduce the actual sea surface temperature (SST)–rainfall relationship in the warm Indo-Pacific oceans. This assessment is based on a comparison of the observed and simulated correlation between the rainfall and local SST. However, the observed SSTconvection/rainfall relationship is nonlinear and for this a linear measure such as the correlation is not an appropriate measure. We show that the SST–rainfall relationship simulated by atmospheric and coupled general circulation models in IPCC AR4 is nonlinear, as observed, and realistic over the tropical West Pacific (WPO) and the Indian Ocean (IO). The SST–rainfall pattern simulated by the coupled versions of these models is rather similar to that from the corresponding atmospheric one, except for a shift of the entire pattern to colder/warmer SSTs when there is a cold/warm bias in the coupled version.

Monsoon sensitivity to aerosol direct radiative forcing in the community atmosphere model

Aerosol forcing remains a dominant uncertainty in climate studies. The impact of aerosol direct radiative forcing on Indian monsoon is extremely complex and is strongly dependent on the model, aerosol distribution and characteristics specified in the model, modelling strategy employed as well as on spatial and temporal scales. The present study investigates (i) the aerosol direct radiative forcing impact on mean Indian summer monsoon when a combination of quasi-realistic mean annual cycles of scattering and absorbing aerosols derived from an aerosol transport model constrained with satellite observed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is prescribed, (ii) the dominant feedback mechanism behind the simulated impact of all-aerosol direct radiative forcing on monsoon and (iii) the relative impacts of absorbing and scattering aerosols on mean Indian summer monsoon. We have used CAM3, an atmospheric GCM (AGCM) that has a comprehensive treatment of the aerosol–radiation interaction. This AGCM has been used to perform climate simulations with three different representations of aerosol direct radiative forcing due to the total, scattering aerosols and black carbon aerosols. We have also conducted experiments without any aerosol forcing. Aerosol direct impact due to scattering aerosols causes significant reduction in summer monsoon precipitation over India with a tendency for southward shift of Tropical Convergence Zones (TCZs) over the Indian region. Aerosol forcing reduces surface solar absorption over the primary rainbelt region of India and reduces the surface and lower tropospheric temperatures. Concurrent warming of the lower atmosphere over the warm oceanic region in the south reduces the land–ocean temperature contrast and weakens the monsoon overturning circulation and the advection of moisture into the landmass. This increases atmospheric convective stability, and decreases convection, clouds, precipitation and associated latent heat release. Our analysis reveals a defining negative moisture-advection feedback that acts as an internal damping mechanism spinning down the regional hydrological cycle and leading to significant circulation changes in response to external radiative forcing perturbations. When total aerosol loading (both absorbing and scattering aerosols) is prescribed, dust and black carbon aerosols are found to cause significant atmospheric heating over the monsoon region but the aerosol-induced weakening of meridional lower tropospheric temperature gradient (leading to weaker summer monsoon rainfall) more than offsets the increase in summer-time rainfall resulting from the atmospheric heating effect of absorbing aerosols, leading to a net decrease of summer monsoon rainfall. Further, we have carried out climate simulations with globally constant AODs and also with the constant AODs over the extended Indian region replaced by realistic AODs. Regional aerosol radiative forcing perturbations over the Indian region is found to have impact not only over the region of loading but over remote tropical regions as well. This warrants the need to prescribe realistic aerosol properties in strategic regions such as India in order to accurately assess the aerosol impact.

REVIEW OF HYDROCLIMATIC TELECONNECTION BETWEEN HYDROLOGIC VARIABLES AND LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS WITH INDIAN PERSPECTIVE

ABSTRACT Hydroclimatic teleconnection between hydrologic variables and large-scale atmospheric circulation phenomena is being studied worldwide and gaining more and more interest in recent years due to its potential use in hydrologic time series analysis and forecasting. In this paper a review of such related work is presented. First, characteristics of major large-scale atmospheric circulation phenomena from tropical Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean region are explained. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode from tropical Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean respectively are selected and their global influences on hydrologic variables through hydroclimatic teleconnection are elaborated. Potential predictive power of such large-scale indices for hydrologic variables is explained based on the established research work across the world. Research opportunities, in this direction, are then explained in Indian perspective. A preliminary analysis is also presented in this regard. Predictive potential of such large-scale indices is of immense use to water resources community.

An Exploration Framework to Identify and Track Movement of Cloud Systems

We describe a framework to explore and visualize the movement of cloud systems. Using techniques from computational topology and computer vision, our framework allows the user to study this movement at various scales in space and time. Such movements could have large temporal and spatial scales such as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has a spatial scale ranging from 1000 km to 10000 km and time of oscillation of around 40 days. Embedded within these larger scale oscillations are a hierarchy of cloud clusters which could have smaller spatial and temporal scales such as the Nakazawa cloud clusters. These smaller cloud clusters, while being part of the equatorial MJO, sometimes move at speeds different from the larger scale and in a direction opposite to that of the MJO envelope. Hitherto, one could only speculate about such movements by selectively analysing data and a priori knowledge of such systems. Our framework automatically delineates such cloud clusters and does not depend on the prior experience of the user to define cloud clusters. Analysis using our framework also shows that most tropical systems such as cyclones also contain multi-scale interactions between clouds and cloud systems. We show the effectiveness of our framework to track organized cloud system during one such rainfall event which happened at Mumbai, India in July 2005 and for cyclone Aila which occurred in Bay of Bengal during May 2009.

The Impact of the Time Step on the Intensity of ITCZ in an Aquaplanet GCM

Several numerical experiments have been conducted using the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, version 3 (CAM3) to examine the impact of the time step on rainfall in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in an aquaplanet. When the model time step was increased from 5 to 60 min the rainfall in the ITCZ decreased substantially. The impact of the time step on the ITCZ rainfall was assessed for a fixed spatial resolution (T63 with L26) for the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core (SLD). The increase in ITCZ rainfall at higher temporal resolution was primarily a result of the increase in large-scale precipitation. This increase in rainfall was caused by the positive feedback between surface evaporation, latent heating, and surface wind speed. Similar results were obtained when the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core was replaced by the Eulerian dynamical core. When the surface evaporation was specified, changes in rainfall were largely insensitive to temporal resolution. The impact of temporal resolution on rainfall was more sensitive to the latitudinal gradient of SST than to the magnitude of SST.

Performance of WRF-Chem over Indian region: Comparison with measurements

The aerosol mass concentrations over several Indian regions have been simulated using the online chemistry transport model, WRF-Chem, for two distinct seasons of 2011, representing the pre-monsoon (May) and post-monsoon (October) periods during the Indo–US joint experiment ‘Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX)’. The simulated values were compared with concurrent measurements. It is found that the model systematically underestimates near-surface BC mass concentrations as well as columnar Aerosol Optical Depths (AODs) from the measurements. Examining this in the light of the model-simulated meteorological parameters, we notice the model overestimates both planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and surface wind speeds, leading to deeper mixing and dispersion and hence lower surface concentrations of aerosols. Shortcoming in simulating rainfall pattern also has an impact through the scavenging effect. It also appears that the columnar AODs are influenced by the unrealistic emission scenarios in the model. Comparison with vertical profiles of BC obtained from aircraft-based measurements also shows a systematic underestimation by the model at all levels. It is seen that concentration of other aerosols, viz., dust and sea-salt are closely linked with meteorological conditions prevailing over the region. Dust is higher during pre-monsoon periods due to the prevalence of north-westerly winds that advect dust from deserts of west Asia into the Indo-Gangetic plain. Winds and rainfall influence sea-salt concentrations. Thus, the unrealistic simulation of wind and rainfall leads to model simulated dust and sea-salt also to deviate from the real values; which together with BC also causes underperformance of the model with regard to columnar AOD. It appears that for better simulations of aerosols over Indian region, the model needs an improvement in the simulation of the meteorology.

Decreasing intensity of monsoon low-frequency intraseasonal variability over India

Understanding the changing nature of the intraseasonal oscillatory (ISO) modes of Indian summer monsoon manifested by active and break phase, and their association with extreme rainfall events are necessary for probabilistic estimation of flood-related risks in a warming climate. Here, using ground-based observed rainfall, we define an index to measure the strength of monsoon ISOs and show that the relative strength of the northward-propagating low-frequency ISO (20-60 days) modes have had a significant decreasing trend during the past six decades, possibly attributed to the weakening of large-scale circulation in the region during monsoon season. This reduction is compensated by a gain in synoptic-scale (3-9 days) variability. The decrease in low-frequency ISO variability is associated with a significant decreasing trend in the percentage of extreme events during the active phase of the monsoon. However, this decrease is balanced by significant increasing trends in the percentage of extreme events in the break and transition phases. We also find a significant rise in the occurrence of extremes during early and late monsoon months, mainly over eastern coastal regions. Our study highlights the redistribution of rainfall intensity among periodic (low-frequency) and non-periodic (extreme) modes in a changing climate scenario.

Computational load in model physics of the parallel NCAR community climate model

Maintaining a balance of computational load over processors is a crucial issue in parallel computing. For efficient parallel implementation, complex codes such as climate models need to be analyzed for load imbalances. In the present study we focus on the load imbalances in the physics portion of the community climate model`s (CCM2) distributed-memory parallel implementation on the Intel Touchstone DELTA computer. We note that the major source of load imbalance is the diurnal variation in the computation of solar radiation. Convective weather patterns also cause some load imbalance. Land-ocean contrast is seen to have little effect on computational load in the present version of the model.