Raymond A. K. Cox

A Stochastic Model of Superstardom: An Application of the Yule Distribution

This study employs a stochastic model developed by G. Udny Yule and Herbert A. Simon as the probability mechanism underlying the consumers choice of artistic products and predicts that artistic outputs will be concentrated among a few lucky individuals. We find that the probability distribution implied by the stochastic model provides an excellent description of the empirical data in the popular music industry, suggesting that the stochastic model may represent the process generating the superstar phenomenon. Because the stochastic model does not require differential talents among individuals, our empirical results support the notion that the superstar phenomenon could exist among individuals with equal talent. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

The Causal Relationship between Bank Capital and Profitability

The relationship between capital structure and return on equity (ROE) is examined. It is shown that for banks in the US, for the relatively less regulated 1983–1989 period as well as the more highly regulated 1996–2002 period, there is a positive relationship between financial leverage and the ROE. The analysis is extended to determine the relationship between return on assets (ROA) and equity capital. The evidence supports the hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between equity capital and ROA.

Confucius confusion: analyst forecast dispersion and business cycles

Purpose Financial analysts have been found to be overconfident. The purpose of this paper is to study the ramifications of that overconfidence on the dispersion of earnings estimates as a predictor of the US business cycle. Design/methodology/approach Whether aggregate analyst forecast dispersion contains information about turning points in business cycles, especially downturns, is examined by utilizing the analyst earnings forecast dispersion metric. The primary analysis derives from logit regression and Markov switching models. The analysis controls for sentiment (consumer confidence), output (industrial production), and financial indicators (stock returns and turnover). Analyst data come from Institutional Brokers Estimate System, while the economic data are available at the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Economic Data site. Findings A rise in the dispersion of analyst forecasts is a significant predictor of turning points in the US business cycle. Financial analyst uncertainty of earnings estimate contains crucial information about the risks of US business cycle turning points. The results are consistent with some analysts becoming overconfident during the expansion period and misjudging the precision of their information, thus over or under weighting various sources of information. This causes the disagreement among analysts measured as dispersion. Originality/value This is the first study to show that analyst forecast dispersion contributions valuable information to predictions of economic downturns. In addition, that dispersion can be attributed to analyst overconfidence.

Drivers of US Bank Failures during the Financial Crisis

Hundreds of banks failed during the financial crisis of 2008 to 2010 causing significant social cost and enfeebling economic growth for years following. In the aftermath of the crisis, regulators responded, as always, with new regulations, the efficacy of which is debatable. For policy makers to enact effective regulation, they must understand the true cause of bank failures during crisis periods. We study the effects of 31 variables using univariate t-tests and probit regression to determine their influence on the probability of bank failure. We find that banks failed during the 2008 to 2010 financial crisis because of choices management made to accept more risk, specifically by having higher financial leverage, investing in higher risk loans in real estate and construction and by holding less liquid assets and fewer low risk loans like single family real estate loans. That is, the cause of US bank failures during the finance crisis was poor management.