Raymond W. So

Further Evidence on the Integration of REIT, Bond, and Stock Returns

This study examines the integration of REIT, bond, and stock returns. Cointegration and vector autoregressive models are employed to explore the causality and long-run economic linkages among these securities. Our results show that REITs behave more like stocks and less like bonds after the structural changes in the early 1990s. Overall, results suggest that the benefits of diversification by including REITs in multiasset portfolios diminish after 1992.

Price discovery in the German equity index derivatives markets

This article examines the intraday price discovery process among stock index, index futures, and index options in Germany using DAX index securities and intraday transactions data. The three index securities contribute to a common factor, but the spot index and index futures have substantially larger information shares than index options. Moreover, the returns of the three index securities exhibit feedback effects, with futures being dominant. Because the trading costs of the futures appear to be the lowest of the three and those of the options to be the highest, the results are consistent with the transaction cost hypothesis.

REIT Returns and Inflation: Perverse or Reverse Causality Effects?

Contrary to the Fisherian theory of interest, previous studies document a negative relationship between REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) returns and inflation. In this research, we re-examine this perverse inflation behavior by testing for the causal relationships among REIT returns, real activity, monetary policy, and inflation through a vector error correction model. Our results indicate that the observations of REIT returns as perverse inflation hedges are spurious. The observed negative relationship between REIT returns and inflation is in fact a manifestation of the effects of changes in monetary policies. These findings are consistent with Darrat and Glascocks (1989) evidence of monetary effects on REIT returns.

Price and volatility spillovers between interest rate and exchange value of the US dollar

Abstract In this paper, the dynamic relationships between interest rate and exchange value of the US dollar are studied via a multivariate Exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model. In terms of price changes, movements of interest rates have positive effects on movements of exchange rates. However, changes in exchange rates do not explain changes in interest rates. Nevertheless, there exists volatility spillovers between the two markets, indicating that their second moments are related. Overall evidence suggests that these two markets have short-term dynamic interactions. The existence of volatility spillovers also suggests that the relationships between these two economic variables are not necessarily linear.

Exchange rate variability and the riskiness of US multinational firms: evidence from the Asian financial turmoil

This paper studies the relationship between exchange rate variability and the volatility of the returns of US multinationals. Based on a sample of US multinationals with sales in the Asia-Pacific region, we examine how exchange rate fluctuations around the 1997 Asian financial crisis affected the sensitivity of those firms to stock market risk. The empirical evidence shows that increases in exchange rate variability during the crisis were associated with statistically significant increases in stock return volatility for the multinationals. Some of the increases in volatility were systematic in nature, because the beta coefficients of the firms rose during the period of increased exchange rate variability.

Rationality of Stock Splits: The Target-Price Habit Hypothesis

The question of why firms exercise stock splits has inspired research for some time. Signalling and optimal trading range hypotheses are possible explanations for stock splits. This paper considers the sociological aspects of maintaining a stable target-price habit. It argues that one of the principal reasons for stock splits is to conform to the market norm, which is established by mutual reinforcement among financial analysts, managers, and investors. Models based on economic reasons alone do not fully explain the rationality of stock splits.

The Relationship Between REITs Returns and Inflation: A Vector Error Correction Approach

Previous studies show that REITs returns and inflation arenegatively related. This paper reexamines this perverse inflation hedgephenomenon by investigating the relationship among REITs returns, realactivities, monetary policy and inflation through a Vector ErrorCorrection Model. Empirical results show that inflation does notGranger-cause REITs returns and that REITs returns signal changes in monetary policy. The observed negative relationship between REITs returnsand inflation is merely a proxy for the more fundamental relationshipbetween REITs returns and other macroeconomic variables.

Intraday volatility spillovers in the German equity index derivatives markets

This paper examines the intraday information transmission process among the Deutscher Aktienindex (DAX), DAX futures and DAX options in Germany. Using the extreme value volatility approach developed in Booth et al. (1997, Management Science, 43, 1564-1576), the volatilities of the three markets are found to spill over to one another. These results support the notion that the three index assets are informationally linked, and the three markets should be considered a complete system for intraday information processing.

A Note on International Portfolio Diversification with Short Selling

In this paper, the diversification benefits of using stock index futures are examined. Empirical evidence shows that traditional diversification in international equity markets does not produce a risk adjusted performance superior to the US market. An explanation for this result is that restrictions on short selling prohibit the best allocation of resources when overseas stock markets are riskier and have worse returns. However, when such restrictions are eased for short selling in index futures markets, investors are enabled to both allocate their investments more efficiently and to construct a superior portfolio.

Excess Return and Risk Characteristics of Asian Exchange Listed Real Estate

This study examines the behavior of the excess returns of publicly-listed real estate firms whose shares are traded in Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand in widely-varying market situations. The results indicate that the publicly-traded stocks of real estate firms in these markets, apart from Taiwan, do not exhibit excess return behavior. In addition, with the exception of South Korea, the risk characteristics of exchange-listed real estate firms are found to vary with differences in market conditions. We also demonstrate that there was no structural shift in return behavior around the Asian crisis.