Raymond Ward

Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: a region by region overview

Abstract Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

Improved modelling of the impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetland plant communities

This study presents an enhanced methodology for modelling the impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetlands. The tool integrates dGPS-calibrated LiDAR data, isostatic uplift and sediment accretion rates to predict the location and extent of plant communities at three non-contiguous micro-topographical coastal wetlands in Estonia by 2100 in response to global sea level rise. Scenarios were run including sediment accretion, elevated sediment accretion and then discounting sediment accretion and dGPS calibration for comparison. Results showed an increase in surface elevation (related to sediment accretion and isostatic uplift) resulting in a decrease in local sea level in the majority of sites and scenarios in the north of the country, although a rise in local sea level is predicted in sites with limited allochthonous sediment supply, predominantly impacting higher elevation plant communities. Wetlands situated on the west coast are likely to maintain equilibrium with sea level as a result of lower sedimentation and isostatic uplift than more northerly sites. This study shows that dGPS-calibrated LiDAR data and sediment accretion are essential to maintain model validity in Baltic coastal wetlands due to their low relief and could considerably improve current sea level rise impact models for other regions.

Importance of Microtopography in Determining Plant Community Distribution in Baltic Coastal Wetlands

ABSTRACT Ward, R.D.; Burnside, N.G.; Joyce, C.B., and Sepp, K., 2016. Importance of microtopography in determining plant community distribution in Baltic coastal wetlands. This study investigated microtopography and edaphic factors to ascertain their use as determinants for identifying the location and extent of plant community types in internationally important Baltic coastal wetlands in Estonia. Plant community types were identified, and abundance and frequency of plant species were recorded within 105 1-m2 quadrats at two sites. Within each quadrat, a real-time kinematic differential GPS (dGPS) was used to record elevation; soil moisture, organic matter, particle size, pH, salinity, nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) were also measured. A significant difference was recorded for elevation in six of the seven different plant communities: Reed Swamp, Clubrush Swamp, Lower Shore grassland, Upper Shore grassland, Tall Grassland, and Scrub and Developing Woodland. Median elevation differences between plant communities were between 0.04 m and 0.19 m. Soil moisture and salinity were related to elevation, and all three significantly influenced plant community location. A Canonical Correspondence Analysis confirmed that elevation and soil moisture influenced the distribution of five of the seven community types, while the remaining two communities were strongly related to either pH and salinity or organic matter, N, and K, respectively. Microtopography was found to strongly affect the distribution and extent of Baltic coastal wetland plant communities because of the relationship between sea-level and site hydrology. Rising sea levels may profoundly affect the distribution of plant communities in these wetlands, and the quantification of the elevation differences between the plant communities in this study provides an important baseline for predicting their future location and extent.

Nature conservation in remote rural areas: a win-win situation?

Nature conservation has a long and notable history in Estonia starting from the traditional roots of folk religion in the 1300s. The first national park in the Soviet Union was created in Estonia and today more than a fifth of the territory of Estonia is under some level of nature protection. The economy and legal system of Estonia have changed rapidly over the last 20 years since independence was regained in 1991. The development of protected areas has been affected directly and indirectly by a variety of inter-related political, social, economic and demographic factors. The changes have been rapid and extensive as in other Eastern-European countries. The main aim of this article is to discuss the socio-economic development of protected areas during the last two decades in Estonia. The article gives an overview of the history of nature conservation in Estonia, an analysis of socio-economic and demographic developments of protected areas and explores possible development paths for Estonia’s protected areas. Four scenarios: emptying, residence, exposition and research are discussed with their potential drivers and outcomes presented.

Soviet military heritage: brown and green - recovery and enhancement

Estonia has been for centuries a strategically important area in Eastern Europe, in particular due to its relatively long coastline (including islands about 3800 km). Therefore it has been subject to military invasions by various foreign powers. Each of them has built numerous military facilities, most of which originate from the Second World War or subsequent Soviet occupation period. Almost the whole coastal area of Estonia and large inland areas were in use by the military and closed to the public. The Soviet military had left behind both, green and brown heritage. After the withdrawal of Russian troops, Estonia regained control of approximately 87,000 hectares of land formerly under the military control, suffering from a high pollution load. Conversely, the military presence and strict limitations left large areas in a natural state largely untouched by human activities. After regaining independence 40 new protected areas were established in Estonian Green Belt zone, which was heavily guarded Soviet military territory in Estonia. In Estonia the regional differences are considerable. The pristine natural environment and valuable objects of cultural heritage are considered to be strongest advantages for the development of rural areas, thus it is extremely important that former military sites are remediated and made safe. After the collapse of the Soviet Union the extent and character of pollution caused by the Soviet military was studied. This article provides an overview of the extent of the pollution, the recovery of brownfield sites as well as green heritage.