Raymundo M. Campos-Vázquez

TEENAGE PREGNANCY IN MEXICO: EVOLUTION AND CONSEQUENCES

We analyze the consequences of a teenage pregnancy event in the short and long run in Mexico. Using longitudinal and cross-section data, we match females who became pregnant and those who did not based on a propensity score. In the short run, we find that a teenage pregnancy causes a decrease of 0.6-0.8 years of schooling, lower school attendance, fewer hours of work and a higher marriage rate. In the long run, we find that a teenage pregnancy results in a 1-1.2-year loss in years of education, which implies a permanent ef fect on education, and lower household income per capita.

Self-selection patterns among return migrants: Mexico 1990-2010

AbstractThis paper analyzes the self-selection patterns among Mexican return migrants during the period 1990–2010. To calculate the selection patterns, we nonparametrically estimate the counterfactual wages that the return migrants would have experienced had they never migrated by using the wage structure of stayers. We find evidence that the selection patterns in observable skills change over time from positive selection in 1990 toward negative selection in 2010. Additionally, we observe that the wages of return migrants are larger than those that the migrants would have obtained had they not migrated.JEL CodesF22, J01, J61, O54

FAMILY INCOME INEQUALITY AND THE ROLE OF MARRIED FEMALES' EARNINGS IN MEXICO: 1988-2010

We study family income inequality in Mexico from 1988 to 2010, when among married couples, the share of income contributed by females grew from 13 to 23 percent. However, the correlation of married males’ to married females’ earnings has been fairly stable at 0.28, one of the highest correlations recorded across countries. We follow Cancian and Reed’s (1999) methodology in order to determine whether married females’ income equalizes total family income distribution. We investigate several counterfactuals and conclude that increased female employment has contributed to a decline in family income inequality through higher married females’ labor participation in poor families.

Did Population Well-being Improve During Porfirian Mexico? A Regional Analysis using a Quasi-Human Development Index

It is argued that economic growth during the Porfiriato did not improve the well-being of the Mexican population. One explanation for such result is that the economic growth pattern was skewed and benefited more the northern states and less the southern ones. Following the estimation method of the Human Development Index, we calculate a Quasi-Human Development Index for the Mexican states during the period 1895–1910. Results show that at the start of the period (1895) the northern states were already the most developed. During the next 15 years this pattern was maintained and the dispersion in human development increased marginally. Finally, it is shown that the true losers of the Porfiriato were the states surrounding Mexico City and not the southern ones.

Supply of Schooling and Dropout Rates: Evidence from the Oportunidades program in Mexico

In this article we provide evidence that measures of school supply, such as quantity and quality at the local level, are important predictors of dropout behaviour among conditional cash transfer beneficiaries in Mexico. We use administrative records of the Oportunidades programme in both rural and urban areas to follow the schooling trajectory of a cohort of students from sixth grade to high school. Under half of rural beneficiaries attending sixth grade make it to the tenth grade. Our regression analysis indicates that the absence of a junior high school in a locality increases the probability of dropping out after sixth grade by 6.8 percentage points; the absence of a high school increases the probability of dropping out after ninth grade by 12.2 percentage points. This means that 16% of all rural sixth†grade students would enter tenth grade if they had junior high and high schools in their localities. Attending a low†quality junior high school increases the probability of dropping out after ninth grade by 13 percentage points in rural areas and 7.6 percentage points in urban areas.

Long-Run Human Development in Mexico: 1895–2010

We estimate a measure of long-run development in Mexico by calculating a human development index for the period 1895-2010. This index is calculated using urbanization rates, measures of schooling, and number of physicians per capita for each state in Mexico. This is the longest homogenous series to date that compares development at the national and state levels. We find a significant increase in human development over the period studied; however, divergence across states increased through 1940 and then decreased substantially. Perhaps more significantly, development patterns across states exhibit a strong persistence over time. Northern states have been wealthier than the rest from the beginning of the period, while southern states are the poorest. The states surrounding Mexico City were as poor as the southern states at the beginning of the twentieth century, but experienced accelerated development from 1940 to 1980.

Returns to cognitive and non-cognitive skills: evidence for Mexico

ABSTRACT This study examines how cognitive and non-cognitive skills are valued in the labour market in Mexico. It uses a novel dataset which includes a wide array of cognitive and non-cognitive skill measures. Non-cognitive skills are rewarded in the market even after controlling for family background and educational attainment. Returns to non-cognitive skills are similar between men and women. However, controlling for educational attainment and family background, only men are rewarded for their cognitive skills.

Growth is (really) good for the (really) rich

This paper analyses the relationship between mean income and the income of the rich. Our methodology closely follows that of Dollar and Kraay (Journal of Economic Growth, 2002, 7, 195), but instead of looking at the bottom of the distribution, we focus on the top. We use panel data from the World Top Incomes database, which collects top income data from several countries using tax returns as the raw source. We define the “rich” as earners in the top 10%, 1%, 0.1% and 0.01% of the income distribution. Using data since 1980, we find that economic growth is good for the rich in the sense that the mean income of the top decile of the distribution grows in the same proportion as that of the whole population. However, we also find that the income of earners in the top percentile of the distribution and above grows faster than average income: therefore, economic growth is really good for the really rich. We also find that during economic downturns the average income of top earners responds proportionally less to changes in mean income than during economic expansions. Our results are consistent with the increase in inequality that has been recently observed at the top part of the distribution in many countries, and they are robust to different specifications, country samples and time observations.

The effects of emigration on development and fiscal outcomes in Mexico

This paper has two separate goals. First, we review the empirical evidence on the effects of migration on development in Mexico. We examine the types of migrants who leave and return to Mexico, the effects of emigration on wages, and the effects of remittances on poverty and human capital accumulation. Second, we attempt to estimate the fiscal impact of emigration in Mexico. Previous literature generally associates emigration and remittances with positive development outcomes in the areas of poverty and health. Remittances are an important source of income for poor households and for high-migrant states. We find that emigration has a positive impact on GDP and fiscal revenue. However, we calculate that there would have been similar effects had emigration not occurred. Emigration has thus not had a significant economic impact on tax collection.