Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer

A meta‐analysis of crop pest and natural enemy response to landscape complexity

Many studies in recent years have investigated the relationship between landscape complexity and pests, natural enemies and/or pest control. However, no quantitative synthesis of this literature beyond simple vote-count methods yet exists. We conducted a meta-analysis of 46 landscape-level studies, and found that natural enemies have a strong positive response to landscape complexity. Generalist enemies show consistent positive responses to landscape complexity across all scales measured, while specialist enemies respond more strongly to landscape complexity at smaller scales. Generalist enemy response to natural habitat also tends to occur at larger spatial scales than for specialist enemies, suggesting that land management strategies to enhance natural pest control should differ depending on whether the dominant enemies are generalists or specialists. The positive response of natural enemies does not necessarily translate into pest control, since pest abundances show no significant response to landscape complexity. Very few landscape-scale studies have estimated enemy impact on pest populations, however, limiting our understanding of the effects of landscape on pest control. We suggest focusing future research efforts on measuring population dynamics rather than static counts to better characterise the relationship between landscape complexity and pest control services from natural enemies.

Natural capital and ecosystem services informing decisions: From promise to practice

The central challenge of the 21st century is to develop economic, social, and governance systems capable of ending poverty and achieving sustainable levels of population and consumption while securing the life-support systems underpinning current and future human well-being. Essential to meeting this challenge is the incorporation of natural capital and the ecosystem services it provides into decision-making. We explore progress and crucial gaps at this frontier, reflecting upon the 10 y since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. We focus on three key dimensions of progress and ongoing challenges: raising awareness of the interdependence of ecosystems and human well-being, advancing the fundamental interdisciplinary science of ecosystem services, and implementing this science in decisions to restore natural capital and use it sustainably. Awareness of human dependence on nature is at an all-time high, the science of ecosystem services is rapidly advancing, and talk of natural capital is now common from governments to corporate boardrooms. However, successful implementation is still in early stages. We explore why ecosystem service information has yet to fundamentally change decision-making and suggest a path forward that emphasizes: (i) developing solid evidence linking decisions to impacts on natural capital and ecosystem services, and then to human well-being; (ii) working closely with leaders in government, business, and civil society to develop the knowledge, tools, and practices necessary to integrate natural capital and ecosystem services into everyday decision-making; and (iii) reforming institutions to change policy and practices to better align private short-term goals with societal long-term goals.

Spatial patterns of agricultural expansion determine impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage

Significance Deforestation is a major threat to biodiversity and many ecosystem services and is closely linked to agricultural expansion. Sustainability assessment of different agricultural products and policies requires an understanding of the impacts of land conversion resulting from shifts in demand or incentives for production. The prevailing approaches to estimating such impacts do not account for the spatial context of the transformation. This study shows how different patterns of agricultural expansion into forested landscapes can vastly reduce or exacerbate the total impact, suggesting that methods to measure sustainability should consider not only the total area but also where and how the landscape is converted. The agricultural expansion and intensification required to meet growing food and agri-based product demand present important challenges to future levels and management of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Influential actors such as corporations, governments, and multilateral organizations have made commitments to meeting future agricultural demand sustainably and preserving critical ecosystems. Current approaches to predicting the impacts of agricultural expansion involve calculation of total land conversion and assessment of the impacts on biodiversity or ecosystem services on a per-area basis, generally assuming a linear relationship between impact and land area. However, the impacts of continuing land development are often not linear and can vary considerably with spatial configuration. We demonstrate what could be gained by spatially explicit analysis of agricultural expansion at a large scale compared with the simple measure of total area converted, with a focus on the impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage. Using simple modeling approaches for two regions of Brazil, we find that for the same amount of land conversion, the declines in biodiversity and carbon storage can vary two- to fourfold depending on the spatial pattern of conversion. Impacts increase most rapidly in the earliest stages of agricultural expansion and are more pronounced in scenarios where conversion occurs in forest interiors compared with expansion into forests from their edges. This study reveals the importance of spatially explicit information in the assessment of land-use change impacts and for future land management and conservation.

Global malnutrition overlaps with pollinator-dependent micronutrient production

Pollinators contribute around 10% of the economic value of crop production globally, but the contribution of these pollinators to human nutrition is potentially much higher. Crops vary in the degree to which they benefit from pollinators, and many of the most pollinator-dependent crops are also among the richest in micronutrients essential to human health. This study examines regional differences in the pollinator dependence of crop micronutrient content and reveals overlaps between this dependency and the severity of micronutrient deficiency in people around the world. As much as 50% of the production of plant-derived sources of vitamin A requires pollination throughout much of Southeast Asia, whereas other essential micronutrients such as iron and folate have lower dependencies, scattered throughout Africa, Asia and Central America. Micronutrient deficiencies are three times as likely to occur in areas of highest pollination dependence for vitamin A and iron, suggesting that disruptions in pollination could have serious implications for the accessibility of micronutrients for public health. These regions of high nutritional vulnerability are understudied in the pollination literature, and should be priority areas for research related to ecosystem services and human well-being.

A new approach to modeling the sediment retention service (InVEST 3.0): Case study of the Cape Fear catchment, North Carolina, USA

There is a growing call for ecosystem services models that are both simple and scientifically credible, in order to serve public and private sector decision-making processes. Sediment retention receives particular interest given the impact of this service on water quality. We developed a new version of the sediment retention model for the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) tool to address previous limitations and facilitate model uncertainty assessment. We tested the model in the Cape Fear basin, North Carolina (NC), performing sensitivity analyses and assessing its ability to detect the spatial variability in sediment retention service for eight subcatchments. The main advantages of the revised model include the use of spatially-explicit, globally available input data, and the explicit consideration of hydrological connectivity in the landscape. The sensitivity analyses in the study catchment identified the erosivity and erodibility factors, together with the cover factor for agricultural land as the most influential parameter for sediment export. Relative predictions, representing the spatial variability in sediment exports, were correctly represented by the model. Absolute sediment exports were also highly correlated with observations, although their interpretation for socio-economic assessments is more uncertain without local knowledge of the dominant erosion processes. This work confirms that the sediment connectivity approach used in the revised InVEST model has great potential to quantify the sediment retention service. Although resources to conduct model calibration and testing are typically scarce, these practices should be encouraged to improve model interpretation and for confident application in different decision-making contexts. Without calibration, the InVEST sediment model still provides relevant information for ecosystem services assessments, especially in decision contexts that involve ranking of sediment export areas, such as spatial prioritization of conservation, development or restoration activities, taking into account non-linear sediment responses to changes in land use.

Degradation in carbon stocks near tropical forest edges.

Carbon stock estimates based on land cover type are critical for informing climate change assessment and landscape management, but field and theoretical evidence indicates that forest fragmentation reduces the amount of carbon stored at forest edges. Here, using remotely sensed pantropical biomass and land cover data sets, we estimate that biomass within the first 500 m of the forest edge is on average 25% lower than in forest interiors and that reductions of 10% extend to 1.5 km from the forest edge. These findings suggest that IPCC Tier 1 methods overestimate carbon stocks in tropical forests by nearly 10%. Proper accounting for degradation at forest edges will inform better landscape and forest management and policies, as well as the assessment of carbon stocks at landscape and national levels.

A global synthesis of the effects of diversified farming systems on arthropod diversity within fields and across agricultural landscapes

Agricultural intensification is a leading cause of global biodiversity loss, which can reduce the provisioning of ecosystem services in managed ecosystems. Organic farming and plant diversification are farm management schemes that may mitigate potential ecological harm by increasing species richness and boosting related ecosystem services to agroecosystems. What remains unclear is the extent to which farm management schemes affect biodiversity components other than species richness, and whether impacts differ across spatial scales and landscape contexts. Using a global metadataset, we quantified the effects of organic farming and plant diversification on abundance, local diversity (communities within fields), and regional diversity (communities across fields) of arthropod pollinators, predators, herbivores, and detritivores. Both organic farming and higher in-field plant diversity enhanced arthropod abundance, particularly for rare taxa. This resulted in increased richness but decreased evenness. While these responses were stronger at local relative to regional scales, richness and abundance increased at both scales, and richness on farms embedded in complex relative to simple landscapes. Overall, both organic farming and in-field plant diversification exerted the strongest effects on pollinators and predators, suggesting these management schemes can facilitate ecosystem service providers without augmenting herbivore (pest) populations. Our results suggest that organic farming and plant diversification promote diverse arthropod metacommunities that may provide temporal and spatial stability of ecosystem service provisioning. Conserving diverse plant and arthropod communities in farming systems therefore requires sustainable practices that operate both within fields and across landscapes.

Sensitivity analysis of a sediment dynamics model applied in a Mediterranean river basin: Global change and management implications

Climate change and land-use change are major factors influencing sediment dynamics. Models can be used to better understand sediment production and retention by the landscape, although their interpretation is limited by large uncertainties, including model parameter uncertainties. The uncertainties related to parameter selection may be significant and need to be quantified to improve model interpretation for watershed management. In this study, we performed a sensitivity analysis of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) sediment retention model in order to determine which model parameters had the greatest influence on model outputs, and therefore require special attention during calibration. The estimation of the sediment loads in this model is based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). The sensitivity analysis was performed in the Llobregat basin (NE Iberian Peninsula) for exported and retained sediment, which support two different ecosystem service benefits (avoided reservoir sedimentation and improved water quality). Our analysis identified the model parameters related to the natural environment as the most influential for sediment export and retention. Accordingly, small changes in variables such as the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events could cause major changes in sediment dynamics, demonstrating the sensitivity of these dynamics to climate change in Mediterranean basins. Parameters directly related to human activities and decisions (such as cover management factor, C) were also influential, especially for sediment exported. The importance of these human-related parameters in the sediment export process suggests that mitigation measures have the potential to at least partially ameliorate climate-change driven changes in sediment exportation.

Priorities to Advance Monitoring of Ecosystem Services Using Earth Observation

Managing ecosystem services in the context of global sustainability policies requires reliable monitoring mechanisms. While satellite Earth observation offers great promise to support this need, significant challenges remain in quantifying connections between ecosystem functions, ecosystem services, and human well-being benefits. Here, we provide a framework showing how Earth observation together with socioeconomic information and model-based analysis can support assessments of ecosystem service supply, demand, and benefit, and illustrate this for three services. We argue that the full potential of Earth observation is not yet realized in ecosystem service studies. To provide guidance for priority setting and to spur research in this area, we propose five priorities to advance the capabilities of Earth observation-based monitoring of ecosystem services.

Society Is Ready for a New Kind of Science—Is Academia?

Society Is Ready for a New Kind of Science—Is Academia? Bonnie L. Keeler, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Anne D. Guerry, Prue F. E. Addison, Charles Bettigole, Ingrid C. Burke, Brad Gentry, Lauren Chambliss, Carrie Young, Alexander J. Travis, Chris T. Darimont, Doria R. Gordon, Jessica Hellmann, Peter Kareiva, Steve Monfort, Lydia Olander, Tim Profeta, Hugh P. Possingham, Carissa Slotterback, Eleanor Sterling, Tamara Ticktin, and Bhaskar Vira July 2017