Rebecca Kippen

Public support for alcohol policies associated with knowledge of cancer risk

BACKGROUND Several options are advocated by policy experts to mitigate alcohol-related harms, although the most effective strategies often have the least public support. While knowledge of tobacco-related health risks predicts support for relevant public health measures, it is not known whether knowledge of alcohol health risks is similarly associated with the acceptability of policies intended to reduce alcohol consumption and related harms. This study aims to gauge public support for a range of alcohol policies and to determine whether or not support is associated with knowledge of a long-term health risk of alcohol consumption, specifically cancer. METHODS 2482 adults in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, participated in an online survey. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between demographic data, alcohol consumption, smoking status, knowledge of alcohol as a risk factor for cancer and support for alcohol-related policies. RESULTS Most participants were supportive of health warnings, restricting access to internet alcohol advertising to young people, and requiring information on national drinking guidelines on alcohol containers. Almost half of participants supported a ban on sport sponsorship, while less than 41% supported price increases, volumetric taxation, or reducing the number of retail outlets. Only 47% of participants identified drinking too much alcohol as a risk factor for cancer. Knowledge of alcohol as a risk factor for cancer was a significant predictor of support for all policies, while level of alcohol consumption had a significant inverse relationship with policy support. CONCLUSION The finding that support for alcohol management policies is associated with awareness that drinking too much alcohol may contribute to cancer could assist in the planning of future public health interventions. Improving awareness of the long term health risks of alcohol consumption may be one avenue to increasing public support for effective alcohol harm-reduction policies.

Parental preference for sons and daughters in a western industrial setting: Evidence and implications

This paper considers whether sex composition of existing children in Australian families is an important factor in parity progression. Using census data from 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001, women are linked with their co-resident children, allowing investigation of family sex composition and its changing impact over time on the propensity to have another child. The study finds that parents are much more likely to have a third and fourth birth if existing children are all of the same sex, indicating a strong preference for children of both sexes. This increased propensity has added around three per cent to the fertility of recent cohorts. The paper concludes with a discussion of the potential impact of sex-selection technologies on fertility. The authors argue that future widespread use of reliable sex-selection technologies might act to increase fertility in the short term, but would lead to a long-term reduction in fertility.

Research note: The founders and survivors project

This paper describes the multidisciplinary project Founders and Survivors: Australian Life Courses in Historical Context. Individual life courses, families and generations through the nineteenth and twentieth centuries are being reconstituted from a wide range of data including convict records; birth, death and marriage registrations; and World War I service records. The project will result in a longitudinal study of Australian settlement, the long-run effects of forced labour and emigration on health and survival, family formation, intergenerational morbidity and mortality, and social and geographic mobility.

Births, Debts and Mirages: The Impact of the Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS) and Other Factors on Australian Fertility Expectations

This paper uses survey data to examine the effect of the income-contingent charge mechanism, the Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS), and other demographic and attitudinal variables on fertility expectations in Australia over the recent past. HECS requires former Australian students to fund some of the costs of higher education through the repayment of interest-free loans made by the Australian government. Its defining characteristic is that repayments only occur when and if students future incomes exceed a particular level. Since its introduction in 1989, media and other populist commentary has suggested that HECS has had unanticipated effects on behaviour. Most recently, attention has focused on the effects of HECS on fertility, with some arguing that university graduates are delaying births, and having fewer children, because of their HECS debts. This paper demonstrates that the introduction of HECS has had no discernible impact on Australian fertility rates, nor on the number of children that people expect to have. However, education, age and a number of attitudinal factors are associated with significant differences in fertility expectations.

Is sibling rivalry fatal?: siblings and mortality clustering.

Evidence drawn from nineteenth-century Belgian population registers shows that the presence of similarly aged siblings competing for resources within a household increases the probability of death for children younger than five, even when controlling for the preceding birth interval and multiple births. Furthermore, in this period of Belgian history, such mortality tended to cluster in certain families. The findings suggest the importance of segmenting the mortality of siblings younger than five by age group, of considering the presence of siblings as a time-varying covariate, and of factoring mortality clustering into analyses.

Australian attitudes toward sex-selection technology.

Previous research based on analysis of fertility behavior and expressed preferences shows that many Australian parents want both a son and a daughter. However, most respondents to a representative survey of Australians did not approve of IVF or abortion for sex-selection purposes, and most did not think a hypothetical blue or pink pill to select sex of a child should be legal.

Dynamics of Indigenous demographic fluctuations: lessons from sixteenth-century Cusco, Peru

Reconstruction of the local impacts of imperial expansion is often hindered by insufficiently detailed indigenous demographic data. In the case of Spanish expansion in the Americas, native population declines are widely observed, but underlying dynamics are still incompletely understood. This paper uses a 1569 survey of more than 800 nontributary indigenous households in the Yucay Valley (highland Peru) to investigate demographic changes occurring during the Spanish transformation of the Inka imperial heartland. A suite of demographic analyses reveals that while the study population experienced significant demographic stresses, fertility rates recovered to levels that would lead to population growth in the long term. These new perspectives on indigenous fertility indicate that some rural Andean populations successfully adapted to new imperial arrangements. Long-term demographic declines in the Yucay Valley and surrounding region may thus be attributed to recurring disasters (especially epidemic disease) and an insatiable colonial administration that was not sufficiently flexible or sensitive to dynamics of demographic flux.

Counting Nineteenth-Century Maternal Deaths: The Case of Tasmania

The author considers three methods of counting maternal deaths, and hence of calculating maternal mortality levels, in the nineteenth century. The first method counts maternal deaths classified in contemporary statistical publications. The second method examines nineteenth-century death registers for records of maternal deaths. The third method identifies maternal deaths through family reconstitution. The author finds that each method, in isolation, leads to underestimating maternal mortality levels because maternal deaths were often misregistered or misclassified under nonmaternal causes and were often not associated with live, registered births, as required for family reconstitution.

Taking stock: parents’ reasons for and against having a third child

In developed countries with below-replacement fertility, the proportion of people who have at least three children make a substantial difference to the aggregate level of fertility. This study, based on 40 in-depth interviews with Australian parents of two children, analyses what factors influence the decision to have a third child. Using a grounded theory method of qualitative analysis, the study finds that parents who have decided to stop at two children are more able to articulate their reasons than are parents who are considering having a third child. The reasons for stopping include age and health; work and finances; and the capacity to parent another child. The weighing up of multiple factors is evidence of parents taking stock of personal and financial resources when making complex family formation decisions. The reasons for having a third child are expressed with far less elaboration and are more guarded and personal. We conclude that there is less shared or familiar language for articulating the value of family relationships. The contemporary context is one in which parents are attempting to manage risks related to having children, including the personal and financial implications of time out of the workforce. This study finds a persistent story of limited resources among parents of two children. Policies aimed at increasing fertility need to address this perception of limited resources through direct measures like affordable childcare and more generally through greater government and community support for families.

Demographic Modeling of a Predator-Prey System and Its implication for the Gombe Population of Procolobus rufomitratus tephrosceles

We evaluated the viability of colobus populations under conservative estimates of predation by chimpanzees. If fertility and mortality schedules remain constant, intensely hunted red colobus populations will experience negative growth rates if one allows the assumption of stable age structure to persist into the future. Demographic models have many advantages in studies of primate behavior and ecology. Researchers use them to investigate the quality of observed data and to project population growth rates to changes in mortality, fertility, and migration schedules. We used published age-specific death rates for red colobus (Procolobus rufomitratus tephrosceles) in Gombe National Park, Tanzania, to construct model life tables under various mortality scenarios. Selection in life-history traits toward shorter interbirth intervals, reduction in gestation length, and increased dispersal of individuals from source to sink populations and antipredator behavior, show a limited ability to counter the effects of intense predation. At Gombe, where factors such as small reserve size and isolation prevail, current levels of predation by chimpanzees may depress intrinsic growth rates low enough to cause the extirpation of red colobus in the near future.