Reinhard Eher

Prospective Actuarial Risk Assessment: A Comparison of Five Risk Assessment Instruments in Different Sexual Offender Subtypes

This study examines the predictive validity of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders: Static-99, Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, Sexual Violence Risk—20, and Psychopathy Checklist—Revised in a prospective research design. Although risk assessment is part of a regime leading to various efforts to reduce risk by treatment and aftercare, all instruments show good predictive validity. However, depending on the instrument, recidivism category, and subgroup, the predictive accuracy varies markedly. Furthermore, the authors fail to demonstrate predictive validity for sexual violent reoffences—for the whole sample and for all subgroups. The results, nevertheless, support the utility and predictive validity of actuarial risk assessment complementary to treatment efforts to reduce risk. On the other hand, forensic practitioners have to be aware of the limitations of actuarial risk assessment methods, in particular as regards to variable predictive accuracy for different sexual offender subgroups and reoffence categories.

Dynamic Risk Assessment in Sexual Offenders Using STABLE-2000 and the STABLE-2007: An Investigation of Predictive and Incremental Validity

The predictive accuracy of STABLE-2000 and STABLE-2007 was examined within a prospective research design in a German-speaking sample of 263 adult male prison-released sexual offenders followed up for an average of 6.4 years. The STABLE-2007 was significantly related to all outcomes (AUC = 0.67-0.71), whereas the STABLE-2000 demonstrated only weak predictive accuracy for sexual reoffense (AUC = 0.62). Supporting the results of the construction sample, the STABLE-2007 incrementally added to the predictive accuracy of the STATIC-99 for violent and general reoffense (conviction and incarceration). Moreover, the STABLE-2007 total scores and the nominal risk/need categories made significant incremental contributions over the SORAG for predicting sexual reoffense.

The Predictive Accuracy of Risk Factors in the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (Svr-20)

The Sexual Violence Risk–20 (SVR-20) is the most commonly used structured professional judgment guideline for sexual offender risk assessment and risk management planning. Using a prospective longitudinal research design the authors evaluated the predictive accuracy of the SVR-20, of its subscales, and of the individual items in relation to different recidivism criteria and offender subgroups by analyzing a total sample of 493 sexual offenders released from the Austrian Prison System. Findings indicate good predictive accuracy for the prediction of sexual recidivism for the total sample (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = .72) as well as for the rapist subgroup (n = 221, AUC = .71) and the child molester subsample (n = 249, AUC = .77). However, the results also revealed some inconsistency in the predictive power of the SVR-20 depending on recidivism criterion and offender subgroup. Furthermore, it can be pointed out that the subscales and individual items substantially differ in their association with future sexual and nonsexual violence.

The Severe Sexual Sadism Scale: Cross-Validation and Scale Properties

The Severe Sexual Sadism Scale (SSSS) is a screening device for the file-based assessment of forensically relevant sexual sadism. The SSSS consists of 11 dichotomous (yes/no) items that code behavioral indicators of severe sexual sadism within sexual offenses. Based on an Austrian sample of 105 sexual offenders, the present study replicated the 1-dimensional scale structure of the SSSS, as evidenced by confirmatory factor analysis. More specifically, the scale was commensurate with the 1-parameter logistic test model (Rasch model). Reliability was estimated to be good. Criterion validity for the clinical diagnosis of sexual sadism was good. With a cutoff value of 7 points, sensitivity and specificity were estimated at 56% and 90%, respectively.

Sadism in Sexual Offenders: Evidence for Dimensionality

Recurrent and intense sexual fantasies and urges that circle around the infliction of pain or humiliation on another human being may predispose individuals toward acts of sexual aggression against nonconsenting victims. Consequently, sexual sadism is a paraphilia with particular relevance for forensic psychology and psychiatry. Using behavioral indicators derived from crime scene actions as well as clinical data, we sought in the present study to identify the latent structure of the disorder. We analyzed data from a national sample of male sexual offenders from Austria (N = 1,020). In addition to latent profile analysis, 3 conceptually different taxometric methods were applied. The results of the analyses were more in accordance with a dimensional interpretation than with a categorical distinction. That is, sadistic conduct in sexual offenses is likely an extreme form of coercion, but not a qualitatively different entity. The implications with respect to the current debate on the diagnostic criteria for sadism are discussed.

Violent Sex Offenders Lack Male Social Support

Social networks and social support generally exert an important impact on the management of crisis and may thus influence prevention and rehabilitation strategies. The authors therefore investigated the social network and support in a group of 62 incarcerated sexual offenders. Irrespective of the underlying diagnosis, offenders were divided into a high-violent group and a low-violent group. A factor analysis resulted in five factors describing specific dimensions of social support. A significantly lower perceived social support was found in the high-violent group as compared with the low-violent offenders concerning the factors “talking about problems and feelings to someone” and “rely on someone.” This low support exclusively referred to men outside the family. Neither the number of previous convictions nor length of prior imprisonment predicted the amount of displayed violence. The authors’ results are compared with those in the pertinent literature and are discussed in light of relevant therapeutic strategies in prevention and rehabilitation.

The Utility of Risk Assessment Instruments for the Prediction of Recidivism in Sexual Homicide Perpetrators

To examine the predictive accuracy of four well established risk assessment instruments (PCL-R, HCR-20, SVR-20, and Static-99) in an important subgroup of sexual offenders, these instruments were assessed retrospectively based on information from forensic psychiatric court reports in a sample of 90 released male sexual homicide offenders (out of an original sample of 166) in Germany. Follow-up information about criminal reconvictions after release were obtained from the federal criminal records. Total scores as well as subscales and single items of these risk assessment instruments did not predict sexual recidivism, and only some of them had moderate predictive power regarding nonsexual violent recidivism. Possible explanations for these unexpected results are the retrospective study design with missing information about influences during the long duration of detention and time after release, the small sample size as well as the possibility that the risk assessment instruments investigated were valid for general sex offender samples, but not for the particular subgroup of offenders with sexually motivated homicides.

Sadism and violent reoffending in sexual offenders

A diagnosis of sadism in sexual offenders is commonly regarded as indicative of high risk for violent reoffending. The purpose of the current two studies was to evaluate whether sadism is indeed associated with higher rates of violent (including sexual) reoffending. In Study 1 (meta-analysis), the rate of violent and sexual recidivism was assessed across seven samples of male sex offenders (total N = 2,169) as a function of diagnoses of sexual sadism. In Study 2 (N = 768) the outcome (violent recidivism yes/no) was regressed on sadism, along with behavioral indicators of sexually sadistic offending, and scores from violence risk assessment instruments. In Study 1 (meta-analysis), the overall risk of sadists compared with nonsadists with respect to violent (including sexual contact) reoffending was slightly elevated (by a factor of 1.18), yet not significantly increased. Similarly, the risk of sexual reoffending among sadists was slightly, but not significantly, higher than among nonsadists (factor 1.38). According to Study 2, only a measure of sadistic behavior, not the clinical diagnosis, was associated with violent reoffending. This association, however, was not present once age and customary risk assessment instruments for violence risk were included in the regression. A clinical diagnosis of sexual sadism and behavioral measures of sadism are related to the risk of violent reoffending in sexual offenders. These associations, however, are weak and do not hold once variables relevant for the prediction of violence are controlled for. At the individual level, the risk for future violence in sadists can therefore be adequately described by customary risk assessment instruments.

The Contribution of Age to the Static-99 Risk Assessment in a Population-Based Prison Sample of Sexual Offenders

The Static-99 is the actuarial risk assessment instrument most commonly used and best validated for sexual offenders. Some research has indicated that the original version of the instrument does not sufficiently cover the influence of age-related decreases in recidivism risk of sexual offenders. Therefore, an age-corrected version, the Static-99R, has been proposed. It includes four age categories compared with only two in the original instrument. The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of several age-related variables on the predictive accuracy of the German version of the Static-99 using a population-based sample of prison-released sexual offenders (N = 1,077). The results indicated that—for the prediction of sexual reoffenses in a population-based prison sample—the original Static-99 performed better than the age-corrected Static-99R. Theoretical and empirical implications for research as well as recommendations for applied risk assessment settings are discussed.

Do monthly or seasonal variations exist in suicides in a high-risk setting?

An unequal distribution of suicides over months and seasons has been a consistent finding in epidemiological surveys on suicide. Jails and prisons are a high-risk setting for suicide all over the world. The high prevalence of both outward and self-directed violence in prison populations indicates dysfunctional central serotonin (5-HT) neurotransmission and, therefore, could account for an unequal distribution of suicides over months and seasons due to underlying bioclimatic factors. Within a total survey of suicides in the Austrian penitentiary system, the weekly, monthly and seasonal distribution of custodial suicides between 1947 and 1999 was studied. After an explorative comparison of suicide distribution over weekdays, months and seasons of the year by chi2-tests, a harmonic Poisson regression model was performed to detect seasonality of suicides. No unequal distribution of suicides was evident over the 53-year period. A limitation of this study was its sample size of 412, a low number compared with population-based samples, where a spring suicide peak was consistently found. An explanation for lacking seasonality could be that bioclimatic factors are less relevant in urban, industrialized areas, where jails and prisons usually are located. One of the core characteristics of penal institutions is the limited possibility for communication and social interaction. This social isolation is independent of seasonal changes. If the individuals possibilities for social interactions are limited, the influence of seasonal changes in social activities may be less relevant. This could explain the absence of seasonal changes in custodial suicide incidence.