Reinhard Kaiser

Heat-related mortality during a 1999 heat wave in Chicago.

BACKGROUND During the summer of 1999, Chicagos second deadliest heat wave of the decade resulted in at least 80 deaths. The high mortality, exceeded only by a 1995 heat wave, provided the opportunity to investigate the risks associated with heat-related deaths and to examine the effectiveness of targeted heat-relieving interventions. METHODS We conducted a case-control study to determine risk factors for heat-related death. We collected demographic, health, and behavior information for 63 case patients and 77 neighborhood-and-age-matched control subjects and generated odds ratios (ORs) for each potential risk factor. RESULTS Fifty-three percent of the case patients were aged <65 years, and psychiatric illness was almost twice as common in the younger than the older age group. In the multivariate analysis, the strongest risk factors for heat-related death were living alone (OR=8.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-48.1) and not leaving home daily (OR=5.8; 95% CI, 1.5-22.0). The strongest protective factor was a working air conditioner (OR=0.2; 95% CI, 0.1-0.7). Over half (53%) of the 80 decedents were seen or spoken to on the day of or day before their deaths. CONCLUSIONS A working air conditioner is the strongest protective factor against heat-related death. The relatively younger age of case patients in 1999 may be due to post-1995 interventions that focused on the elderly of Chicago. However, social isolation and advanced age remain important risk factors. Individual social contacts and educational messages targeted toward at-risk populations during heat waves may decrease the number of deaths in these groups.

The Effect of the 1995 Heat Wave in Chicago on All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality

OBJECTIVES We sought to reexamine the effects of the 1995 Chicago heat wave on all-cause and cause-specific mortality, including mortality displacement, using advanced time-series analysis methods. METHODS We used Poisson regression with penalized regression splines to model excess mortality and mortality displacement over a 50-day period centered on the day in which the heat wave temperature peaked, adjusting for meteorological and other variables. We controlled for temporal trends by using daily mortality data during 1993-1997. We estimated relative risks (RRs) with reference to the first day of the 50-day period. RESULTS We estimated that there were 692 excess deaths from June 21, 1995, to August 10, 1995; 26% of these deaths were owing to mortality displacement. RR for all-cause mortality on the day with peak mortality was 1.74 (95% confidence interval=1.67, 1.81). Risk of heat-related death was significantly higher among Blacks, and mortality displacement was substantially lower. CONCLUSIONS The 1995 Chicago heat wave substantially effected all-cause and cause-specific mortality, but mortality displacement was limited. Mortality risks and displacement affected Blacks disproportionally. Appropriately targeted interventions may have a tangible effect on life expectancy.

Mental health, social functioning, and feelings of hatred and revenge of Kosovar Albanians one year after the war in Kosovo

A cross-sectional cluster sample survey was conducted in June 2000 in Kosovo to assess the prevalence of mental health problems associated with traumatic experiences, feelings of hatred and revenge, and the level of social functioning among Kosovar Albanians approximately 1 year after the end of the war. Findings of the second cross-sectional survey were compared with those from our 1999 mental health survey in Kosovo. Included in the survey were 1399 Kosovar Albanians aged 15 years or older living in 593 randomly selected households across Kosovo. Twenty-five percent of respondents reported PTSD symptoms, compared with 17.1% in 1999. The MOS-20 social functioning score improved to 69.8 from 29.5 in 1999. In the 2000 survey 54% of men felt hatred toward the Serbs, compared with 88.7% in 1999.

Heat-related death and mental illness during the 1999 Cincinnati heat wave.

During a 1999 heat wave in Cincinnati, Ohio, the Hamilton County Coroner reported 18 heat-related deaths. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Cincinnati Department of Health conducted a case–control study using surrogate case information and first-person control information to identify risk factors for mortality during the heat wave. Surrogate data were supplemented by systematic death scene investigation reports and comprehensive toxicologic screens, important sources of data that are routinely collected by the Hamilton County Coroner’s Office. The study included 17 case subjects and 34 controls from the decedents’ neighborhood. Among 17 case subjects, 8 (47.1%) had mental illness (odds ratio [OR], 14.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8–633). There was a suggestion of an interaction between age and mental health. A working air-conditioner was the strongest protective factor (OR, 0.03; 95% CI, 0–0.2). Toxicologic screening indicated that case subjects with reported mental illness and a prescription for psychotropic drugs may not have been medication compliant. Three decedents lived in group homes for people with mental illness, indicating that opportunities for prevention may have been missed. Systematic death investigations, including toxicologic screening, provide valuable information about the circumstances of heat-related death, particularly the role of medication compliance as a risk factor. Prevention programs during heat waves should target people with mental illness, especially those who take psychotropic medication.

The Application of Geographic Information Systems and Global Positioning Systems in Humanitarian Emergencies: Lessons Learned, Programme Implications and Future Research

Geographic information systems (GIS), global positioning systems and remote sensing have been increasingly used in public health settings since the 1990s, but application of these methods in humanitarian emergencies has been less documented. Recent areas of application of GIS methods in humanitarian emergencies include hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessments; rapid assessment and survey methods; disease distribution and outbreak investigations; planning and implementation of health information systems; data and programme integration; and programme monitoring and evaluation. The main use of GIS in these areas is to provide maps for decision-making and advocacy, which allow overlaying types of information that may not normally be linked. GIS is also used to improve data collection in the field (for example, for rapid health assessments or mortality surveys). Development of GIS methods requires further research. Although GIS methods may save resources and reduce error, initial investment in equipment and capacity building may be substantial. Especially in humanitarian emergencies, equipment and methodologies must be practical and appropriate for field use. Add-on software to process GIS data needs to be developed and modified. As equipment becomes more user-friendly and costs decrease, GIS will become more of a routine tool for humanitarian aid organisations in humanitarian emergencies, and new and innovative uses will evolve.

Factors associated with HIV infection in married or cohabitating couples in Kenya: results from a nationally representative study.

Background In order to inform prevention programming, we analyzed HIV discordance and concordance within couples in the Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS) 2007. Methods KAIS was a nationally representative population-based sero-survey that examined demographic and behavioral indicators and serologic testing for HIV, HSV-2, syphilis, and CD4 cell counts in 15,853 consenting adults aged 15–64 years. We analyzed interview and blood testing data at the sexual partnership level from married or cohabitating couples. Multivariable regression models were used to identify factors independently associated with HIV discordant and concordant status. Results Of 3256 couples identified in the survey, 2748 (84.4%) had interview and blood testing data. Overall, 3.8% of couples were concordantly infected with HIV, and in 5.8% one partner was infected, translating to 338,000 discordant couples in Kenya. In 83.6% of HIV-infected Kenyans living in married or cohabitating couples neither partner knew their HIV status. Factors independently associated with HIV-discordance included young age in women (AOR 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2–1.8; p<0.0001), increasing number of lifetime sexual partners in women (AOR 1.5, 95% CI: 1.3–1.8; p<0.0001), HSV-2 infection in either or both partners (AOR 4.1, 95% CI: 2.3–7.2; p<0.0001), and lack of male circumcision (AOR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.0–2.5; p = 0.032). Independent factors for HIV-concordance included HSV-2 infection in both partners (AOR 6.5, 95% CI: 2.3–18.7; p = 0.001) and lack of male circumcision (AOR 1.8, 95% CI: 1.0–3.3; p = 0.043). Conclusions Couple prevention interventions should begin early in relationships and include mutual knowledge of HIV status, reduction of outside sexual partners, and promotion of male circumcision among HIV-uninfected men. Mechanisms for effective prevention or suppression of HSV-2 infection are also needed.

Lack of knowledge of HIV status a major barrier to HIV prevention, care and treatment efforts in Kenya: results from a nationally representative study.

Background We analyzed HIV testing rates, prevalence of undiagnosed HIV, and predictors of testing in the Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS) 2007. Methods KAIS was a nationally representative sero-survey that included demographic and behavioral indicators and testing for HIV, HSV-2, syphilis, and CD4 cell counts in the population aged 15–64 years. We used gender-specific multivariable regression models to identify factors independently associated with HIV testing in sexually active persons. Results Of 19,840 eligible persons, 80% consented to interviews and blood specimen collection. National HIV prevalence was 7.1% (95% CI 6.5–7.7). Among ever sexually active persons, 27.4% (95% CI 25.6–29.2) of men and 44.2% (95% CI 42.5–46.0) of women reported previous HIV testing. Among HIV-infected persons, 83.6% (95% CI 76.2–91.0) were unaware of their HIV infection. Among sexually active women aged 15–49 years, 48.7% (95% CI 46.8–50.6) had their last HIV test during antenatal care (ANC). In multivariable analyses, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for ever HIV testing in women ≥35 versus 15–19 years was 0.2 (95% CI: 0.1–0.3; p<0.0001). Other independent associations with ever HIV testing included urban residence (AOR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.2–2.0; p = 0.0005, women only), highest wealth index versus the four lower quintiles combined (AOR 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3–2.5; p = 0.0006, men only), and an increasing testing trend with higher levels of education. Missed opportunities for testing were identified during general or pregnancy-specific contacts with health facilities; 89% of adults said they would participate in home-based HIV testing. Conclusions The vast majority of HIV-infected persons in Kenya are unaware of their HIV status, posing a major barrier to HIV prevention, care and treatment efforts. New approaches to HIV testing provision and education, including home-based testing, may increase coverage. Targeted interventions should involve sexually active men, sexually active women without access to ANC, and rural and disadvantaged populations.

Estimating HIV Incidence among Adults in Kenya and Uganda: A Systematic Comparison of Multiple Methods

BACKGROUND Several approaches have been used for measuring HIV incidence in large areas, yet each presents specific challenges in incidence estimation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We present a comparison of incidence estimates for Kenya and Uganda using multiple methods: 1) Epidemic Projections Package (EPP) and Spectrum models fitted to HIV prevalence from antenatal clinics (ANC) and national population-based surveys (NPS) in Kenya (2003, 2007) and Uganda (2004/2005); 2) a survey-derived model to infer age-specific incidence between two sequential NPS; 3) an assay-derived measurement in NPS using the BED IgG capture enzyme immunoassay, adjusted for misclassification using a locally derived false-recent rate (FRR) for the assay; (4) community cohorts in Uganda; (5) prevalence trends in young ANC attendees. EPP/Spectrum-derived and survey-derived modeled estimates were similar: 0.67 [uncertainty range: 0.60, 0.74] and 0.6 [confidence interval: (CI) 0.4, 0.9], respectively, for Uganda (2005) and 0.72 [uncertainty range: 0.70, 0.74] and 0.7 [CI 0.3, 1.1], respectively, for Kenya (2007). Using a local FRR, assay-derived incidence estimates were 0.3 [CI 0.0, 0.9] for Uganda (2004/2005) and 0.6 [CI 0, 1.3] for Kenya (2007). Incidence trends were similar for all methods for both Uganda and Kenya. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Triangulation of methods is recommended to determine best-supported estimates of incidence to guide programs. Assay-derived incidence estimates are sensitive to the level of the assays FRR, and uncertainty around high FRRs can significantly impact the validity of the estimate. Systematic evaluations of new and existing incidence assays are needed to the study the level, distribution, and determinants of the FRR to guide whether incidence assays can produce reliable estimates of national HIV incidence.

Prevalence of herpes simplex virus type 2 infection, human immunodeficiency virus/herpes simplex virus type 2 coinfection, and associated risk factors in a national, population-based survey in Kenya

Background: Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) is a known biologic cofactor for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission and acquisition. The Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey 2007 provided Kenyas first nationally representative estimate of HSV-2 prevalence and risk factors. Methods: KAIS was a household serosurvey among women and men aged 15 to 64 years. The survey included a behavioral interview and serum testing for HSV-2, HIV, and syphilis infections. Results were weighted for sampling design and nonresponse. Results: Of 19,840 eligible individuals, 90% completed an interview and 80% consented to testing. In all, 35% were infected with HSV-2, of which 42% were women and 26% were men. Between 15 and 24 years of age, HSV-2 prevalence increased from 7% to 34% in women and 3% to 14% in men. Among couples, 30% were HSV-2 concordant-positive, 21% were discordant, and 49% were concordant-negative. In all, 81% of HIV-infected persons were coinfected with HSV-2. HIV prevalence was 16% among those with HSV-2 and 2% among those without HSV-2. Women with circumcised partners had an HSV-2 prevalence of 39% compared to 77% of women with uncircumcised partners. Conclusions: One-third of Kenyans were HSV-2 infected. HIV-1 infection, age, female sex, and lack of male circumcision were population-level predictors for HSV-2 infection. Targeted prevention interventions are needed, including an effective vaccine.

HIV and STI prevalence and risk factors among male sex workers and other men who have sex with men in Nairobi, Kenya.

Abstract:Previous surveys of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Africa have not adequately profiled HIV status and risk factors by sex work status. MSM in Nairobi, Kenya, were recruited using respondent-driven sampling, completed a behavioral interview, and were tested for HIV and sexually transmitted infections. Overlapping recruitment among 273 male sex workers and 290 other MSM was common. Sex workers were more likely to report receptive anal sex with multiple partners (65.7% versus 18.0%, P < 0.001) and unprotected receptive anal intercourse (40.0% versus 22.8%, P = 0.005). Male sex workers were also more likely to be HIV infected (26.3% versus 12.2%, P = 0.007).