Renata Bottazzi

The portfolio effect of pension reforms: evidence from Italy

We estimate the portfolio effect of changes in social security wealth exploiting a decade of Italian pension reforms. The Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth records detailed portfolio data and elicits expectations of retirement outcomes, thus allowing us to measure expected social security wealth and assess to what extent Italian households perceive the innovations brought about by the reforms. We find that households have responded to cuts in pension benefits mostly by increasing real estate wealth, and that this response is stronger among households able more accurately to estimate future social security benefits. We also compute that for the average household consumable wealth increases by 40 percent of the reduction in social security wealth.

House Prices and Home Ownership: a Cohort Analysis

England has very volatile house prices. We use pseudo-panel data spanning multiple house-price cycles over nearly forty years, to assess the extent to which house prices affect access to home ownership by age thirty, and whether differences in ownership rates persist. We find that ownership rates at age thirty have varied substantially, with this variation significantly related to prices. Measurement error problems - attenuation bias and other biases - complicate an analysis of the persistence of these differences in ownership. We use two methods - including one that develops the ideas of Deaton (1985) - to deal with this and find robust evidence that cohorts with low ownership rates at thirty close about 80% of the ownership gap by age forty.