Res Altwegg

Phenological changes in the southern hemisphere.

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.

Collapse of South Africa's penguins in the early 21st century

The number of African penguins Spheniscus demersus breeding in South Africa collapsed from about 56 000 pairs in 2001 to some 21 000 pairs in 2009, a loss of 35 000 pairs (>60%) in eight years. This reduced the global population to 26 000 pairs, when including Namibian breeders, and led to classification of the species as Endangered. In South Africa, penguins breed in two regions, the Western Cape and Algoa Bay (Eastern Cape), their breeding localities in these regions being separated by c. 600 km. Their main food is anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and sardine Sardinops sagax, which are also the target of purse-seine fisheries. In Algoa Bay, numbers of African penguins halved from 21 000 pairs in 2001 to 10 000 pairs in 2003. In the Western Cape, numbers decreased from a mean of 35 000 pairs in 2001–2005 to 11 000 pairs in 2009. At Dassen Island, the annual survival rate of adult penguins decreased from 0.70 in 2002/2003 to 0.46 in 2006/2007; at Robben Island it decreased from 0.77 to 0.55 in the same period. In both the Western and Eastern Cape provinces, long-term trends in numbers of penguins breeding were significantly related to the combined biomass of anchovy and sardine off South Africa. However, recent decreases in the Western Cape were greater than expected given a continuing high abundance of anchovy. In this province, there was a south-east displacement of prey around 2000, which led to a mismatch in the distributions of prey and the western breeding localities of penguins.

Sex‐dependent selection on an autosomal melanic female ornament promotes the evolution of sex ratio bias

Sex-dependent selection often leads to spectacularly different phenotypes in males and females. In species in which sexual dimorphism is not complete, it is unclear which benefits females and males derive from displaying a trait that is typical of the other sex. In barn owls (Tyto alba), females exhibit on average larger black eumelanic spots than males but members of the two sexes display this trait in the same range of possible values. In a 12-year study, we show that selection exerted on spot size directly or on genetically correlated traits strongly favoured females with large spots and weakly favoured males with small spots. Intense directional selection on females caused an increase in spot diameter in the population over the study period. This increase is due to a change in the autosomal genes underlying the expression of eumelanic spots but not of sex-linked genes. Female-like males produced more daughters than sons, while male-like females produced more sons than daughters when mated to a small-spotted male. These sex ratio biases appear adaptive because sons of male-like females and daughters of female-like males had above-average survival. This demonstrates that selection exerted against individuals displaying a trait that is typical of the other sex promoted the evolution of specific life history strategies that enhance their fitness. This may explain why in many organisms sexual dimorphism is often not complete.

The COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database: an open online repository for plant demography.

Summary 1. Schedules of survival, growth and reproduction are key life-history traits. Data on how these traits vary among species and populations are fundamental to our understanding of the ecological conditions that have shaped plant evolution. Because these demographic schedules determine population

How Life History Influences Population Dynamics in Fluctuating Environments

A major question in ecology is how age-specific variation in demographic parameters influences population dynamics. Based on long-term studies of growing populations of birds and mammals, we analyze population dynamics by using fluctuations in the total reproductive value of the population. This enables us to account for random fluctuations in age distribution. The influence of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the population dynamics of a species decreased with generation time. Variation in age-specific contributions to total reproductive value and to stochastic components of population dynamics was correlated with the position of the species along the slow-fast continuum of life-history variation. Younger age classes relative to the generation time accounted for larger contributions to the total reproductive value and to demographic stochasticity in “slow” than in “fast” species, in which many age classes contributed more equally. In contrast, fluctuations in population growth rate attributable to stochastic environmental variation involved a larger proportion of all age classes independent of life history. Thus, changes in population growth rates can be surprisingly well explained by basic species-specific life-history characteristics.

Demographic effects of extreme winter weather in the barn owl

Extreme weather events can lead to immediate catastrophic mortality. Due to their rare occurrence, however, the long-term impacts of such events for ecological processes are unclear. We examined the effect of extreme winters on barn owl (Tyto alba) survival and reproduction in Switzerland over a 68-year period (∼20 generations). This long-term data set allowed us to compare events that occurred only once in several decades to more frequent events. Winter harshness explained 17 and 49% of the variance in juvenile and adult survival, respectively, and the two harshest winters were associated with major population crashes caused by simultaneous low juvenile and adult survival. These two winters increased the correlation between juvenile and adult survival from 0.63 to 0.69. Overall, survival decreased non-linearly with increasing winter harshness in adults, and linearly in juveniles. In contrast, brood size was not related to the harshness of the preceding winter. Our results thus reveal complex interactions between climate and demography. The relationship between weather and survival observed during regular years is likely to underestimate the importance of climate variation for population dynamics.

Age‐Specific Fitness Components and Their Temporal Variation in the Barn Owl

Theory predicts that temporal variability plays an important role in the evolution of life histories, but empirical studies evaluating this prediction are rare. In constant environments, fitness can be measured by the population growth rate λ, and the sensitivity of λ to changes in fitness components estimates selection on these traits. In variable environments, fitness is measured by the stochastic growth rate λs, and stochastic sensitivities estimate selection pressure. Here we examine age‐specific schedules for reproduction and survival in a barn owl population (Tyto alba). We estimated how temporal variability affected fitness and selection, accounting for sampling variance. Despite large sample sizes of old individuals, we found no strong evidence for senescence. The most variable fitness components were associated with reproduction. Survival was less variable. Stochastic simulations showed that the observed variation decreased fitness by about 30%, but the sensitivities of λ and λs to changes in all fitness components were almost equal, suggesting that temporal variation had negligible effects on selection. We obtained these results despite high observed variability in the fitness components and relatively short generation time of the study organism, a situation in which temporal variability should be particularly important for natural selection and early senescence is expected.

Melanin-based coloration is a nondirectionally selected sex-specific signal of offspring development in the alpine swift

Abstract Two mutually exclusive hypotheses have been put forward to explain the evolution and adaptive function of melanin-based color traits. According to sexual selection theory melanism is a directionally selected signal of individual quality, whereas theory on the maintenance of genetic polymorphism proposes that alternative melanin-based variants achieve equal fitness. Alpine swift (Apus melba) males and females have a conspicuous patch of white feathers on the breast with their rachis varying continuously from white to black, and hence the breast varies from white to striated. If this trait is a sexually selected signal of quality, its expression should be condition dependent and the degree of melanism directionally selected. If variation in melanism is a polymorphism, its expression should be genetically determined and fitness of melanin-based variants equal. We experimentally tested these predictions by exchanging eggs or hatchlings between randomly chosen nests and by estimating survival and reproduction in relation to melanism. We found that breast melanism is heritable and that the environment and body condition do not significantly influence its expression. Between 5 and 50 days of age nestlings were heavier and their wings longer when breast feathers of their biological father were blacker, and they also fledged at a younger age. This shows that aspects of offspring quality covary positively with the degree of melanism. However, this did not result in directional selection because nestling survival and recruitment in the local breeding population were not associated with father breast melanism. Furthermore, adult survival, age at first reproduction and probability of skipping reproduction did not covary with the degree of melanism. Genetic variation in breast melanism is therefore maintained either because nonmelanic males achieve fitness similar to melanic males via a different route than producing fast-growing offspring, or because the advantage of producing fast-growing offspring is not sufficiently pronounced to result in directional selection.

Temporal and spatial variation in survival rates of a house sparrow, Passer domesticus, metapopulation

In a metapopulation of house sparrows, consisting of island populations off the coast of northern Norway, annual variation in adult and juvenile survival rates was estimated using capture-recapture methods. Annual adult survival rate did not differ estimated using capture-recapture methods. Annual adult survival rate did not differ between sexes, but varied significantly between islands, whereas annual juvenile survival rate varied significantly between years. For both adult and juvenile survival rates the study revealed a significant interaction term between island and years. meaning that the difference in survival rates among islands differed between years. This interaction in both juvenile and adult survival rates indicates that the temporal variation may occur in an uncorrelated manner even within a relatively restricted geographical region such as our study area.

Novel methods reveal shifts in migration phenology of barn swallows in South Africa

Many migratory bird species, including the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica), have advanced their arrival date at Northern Hemisphere breeding grounds, showing a clear biotic response to recent climate change. Earlier arrival helps maintain their synchrony with earlier springs, but little is known about the associated changes in phenology at their non-breeding grounds. Here, we examine the phenology of barn swallows in South Africa, where a large proportion of the northern European breeding population spends its non-breeding season. Using novel analytical methods based on bird atlas data, we show that swallows first arrive in the northern parts of the country and gradually appear further south. On their north-bound journey, they leave South Africa rapidly, resulting in mean stopover durations of 140 days in the south and 180 days in the north. We found that swallows are now leaving northern parts of South Africa 8 days earlier than they did 20 years ago, and so shortened their stay in areas where they previously stayed the longest. By contrast, they did not shorten their stopover in other parts of South Africa, leading to a more synchronized departure across the country. Departure was related to environmental variability, measured through the Southern Oscillation Index. Our results suggest that these birds gain their extended breeding season in Europe partly by leaving South Africa earlier, and thus add to scarce evidence for phenology shifts in the Southern Hemisphere.