Rhodri Saunders

Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Tacrolimus versus Ciclosporin as Primary Immunosuppression After Liver Transplant

Background and Aims Several meta-analyses comparing ciclosporin with tacrolimus have been conducted since the 1994 publication of the tacrolimus registration trials, but most captured data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) predating recent improvements in waiting list prioritization, induction protocols and concomitant medications. The present study comprised a systematic review and meta-analysis of ciclosporin and tacrolimus in liver transplant recipients using studies published since January 2000. Methods Searches of PubMed, the Cochrane Library and EMBASE identified RCTs of tacrolimus and ciclosporin as the immunosuppressant in adult primary liver transplant recipients, published between January 2000 and August 6, 2014. A random effects meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate the relative risk of death, graft loss, acute rejection (AR), new-onset diabetes after transplantation (NODAT) and hypertension with tacrolimus relative to ciclosporin at 12 months. Results The literature search identified 11 RCTs comparing ciclosporin with tacrolimus. Relative to ciclosporin, tacrolimus was associated with significantly improved outcomes in terms of patient mortality (risk ratio [RR] with ciclosporin of 1.26; 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 1.01–1.58). Tacrolimus was superior to ciclosporin in terms of hypertension (RR with ciclosporin 1.26; 95%CI 1.07–1.47), but inferior in terms of NODAT (RR with ciclosporin 0.60; 95%CI 0.47–0.77). There were no significant differences between ciclosporin and tacrolimus in terms of graft loss or AR. Conclusions Meta-analysis of RCTs published since 2000 showed tacrolimus to be superior to ciclosporin in terms of patient mortality and hypertension, while ciclosporin was superior in terms of NODAT. No significant differences were identified in terms of graft loss or AR. These findings provide further evidence supporting the use of tacrolimus as the cornerstone of immunosuppressive therapy in liver transplant recipients.

The cost-effectiveness and budget impact of stepwise addition of bolus insulin in the treatment of type 2 diabetes: evaluation of the FullSTEP trial

Abstract Background and aims: Intensification of basal insulin-only therapy in type 2 diabetes is often achieved through addition of bolus insulin 3-times daily. The FullSTEP trial demonstrated that stepwise addition (SWA) of bolus insulin aspart was non-inferior to full basal-bolus (FBB) therapy and reduced the rate of hypoglycemia. Here the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of SWA is evaluated. Methods: Cost-effectiveness and budget impact models were developed to assess the cost and quality-of-life (QoL) implications of intensification using SWA compared with FBB in the US setting. At assessment, SWA patients added one bolus dose to their current regimen if the HbA1c target was not met. SWA patients reaching three bolus doses used FBB event rates. Outcomes were evaluated at trial end and projected annually up to 5 years. Models captured hypoglycemic events, the proportion meeting HbA1c target, and self-measured blood glucose. Event rates and QoL utilities were taken from trial data and published literature. Costs were evaluated from a healthcare-payer perspective, reported in 2013 USD, and discounted (like clinical outcomes) at 3.5% annually. This analysis applies to patients with HbA1c 7.0–9.0% and body mass index <40u2009kg/m2. Results: SWA was associated with improved QoL and reduced costs compared with FBB. Improvement in QoL and cost reduction were driven by lower rates of hypoglycemia. Sensitivity analyses showed that outcomes were most influenced by the cost of bolus insulin and QoL impact of symptomatic hypoglycemia. Budget impact analysis estimated that, by moving from FBB to SWA, a health plan with 77,000 patients with type 2 diabetes, of whom 7.8% annually intensified to basal-bolus therapy, would save USD 1304 per intensifying patient over the trial period. Conclusions: SWA of bolus insulin should be considered a beneficial and cost-saving alternative to FBB therapy for the intensification of treatment in type 2 diabetes.

The Prime Diabetes Model: Novel Methods for Estimating Long-Term Clinical and Cost Outcomes in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus

BACKGROUNDnRecent publications describing long-term follow-up from landmark trials and diabetes registries represent an opportunity to revisit modeling options in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM).nnnOBJECTIVESnTo develop a new product-independent model capable of predicting long-term clinical and cost outcomes.nnnMETHODSnAfter a systematic literature review to identify clinical trial and registry data, a model was developed (the PRIME Diabetes Model) to simulate T1DM progression and complication onset. The model runs as a patient-level simulation, making use of covariance matrices for cohort generation and risk factor progression, and simulating myocardial infarction, stroke, angina, heart failure, nephropathy, retinopathy, macular edema, neuropathy, amputation, hypoglycemia, ketoacidosis, mortality, and risk factor evolution. Several approaches novel to T1DM modeling were used, including patient characteristics and risk factor covariance, a glycated hemoglobin progression model derived from patient-level data, and model averaging approaches to evaluate complication risk.nnnRESULTSnValidation analyses comparing modeled outcomes with published studies demonstrated that the PRIME Diabetes Model projects long-term patient outcomes consistent with those reported for a number of long-term studies. Macrovascular end points were reliably reproduced across five different populations and microvascular complication risk was accurately predicted on the basis of comparisons with landmark studies and published registry data.nnnCONCLUSIONSnThe PRIME Diabetes Model is product-independent, available online, and has been developed in line with good practice guidelines. Validation has indicated that outcomes from long-term studies can be reliably reproduced. The model offers new approaches to long-standing challenges in diabetes modeling and may become a valuable tool for informing health care policy.

Patient safety during procedural sedation using capnography monitoring : A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective To evaluate the effect of capnography monitoring on sedation-related adverse events during procedural sedation and analgesia (PSA) administered for ambulatory surgery relative to visual assessment and pulse oximetry alone. Design and setting Systematic literature review and random effects meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) reporting sedation-related adverse event incidence when adding capnography to visual assessment and pulse oximetry in patients undergoing PSA during ambulatory surgery in the hospital setting. Searches for eligible studies published between 1 January 1995 and 31 December 2016 (inclusive) were conducted in PubMed, the Cochrane Library and EMBASE without any language constraints. Searches were conducted in January 2017, screening and data extraction were conducted by two independent reviewers, and study quality was assessed using a modified Jadad scale. Interventions Capnography monitoring relative to visual assessment and pulse oximetry alone. Primary and secondary outcome measures Predefined endpoints of interest were desaturation/hypoxaemia (the primary endpoint), apnoea, aspiration, bradycardia, hypotension, premature procedure termination, respiratory failure, use of assisted/bag-mask ventilation and death during PSA. Results The literature search identified 1006 unique articles, of which 13 were ultimately included in the meta-analysis. Addition of capnography to visual assessment and pulse oximetry was associated with a significant reduction in mild (risk ratio (RR) 0.77, 95%u2009CI 0.67 to 0.89) and severe (RR 0.59, 95%u2009CI 0.43 to 0.81) desaturation, as well as in the use of assisted ventilation (OR 0.47, 95%u2009CI 0.23 to 0.95). No significant differences in other endpoints were identified. Conclusions Meta-analysis of 13 RCTs published between 2006 and 2016 showed a reduction in respiratory compromise (from respiratory insufficiency to failure) during PSA with the inclusion of capnography monitoring. In particular, use of capnography was associated with less mild and severe oxygen desaturation, which may have helped to avoid the need for assisted ventilation.

Clinical and economic burden of procedural sedation-related adverse events and their outcomes: analysis from five countries

Background Studies have reported on the incidence of sedation-related adverse events (AEs), but little is known about their impact on health care costs and resource use. Methods Health care providers and payers in five countries were recruited for an online survey by independent administrators to ensure that investigators and respondents were blinded to each other. Surveys were conducted in the local language and began with a “screener” to ensure that respondents had relevant expertise and experience. Responses were analyzed using Excel and R, with the Dixon’s Q statistic used to identify and remove outliers. Global and country-specific average treatment patterns were calculated via bootstrapping; costs were mean values. The sum product of costs and intervention probability gave a cost per AE. Results Responses were received from 101 providers and 26 payers, the majority having >5 years of experience. At a minimum, the respondents performed a total of 3,430 procedural sedations per month. All AEs detailed occurred in clinical practice in the last year and were reported to cause procedural delays and cancellations in some patients. Standard procedural sedation costs ranged from €74 (Germany) to

Reply: Letter to the editor for FullSTEP BIA in JME by Saunders et al 2014

2,300 (US). Respondents estimated that AEs would increase costs by between 16% (Italy) and 179% (US). Hypotension was reported as the most commonly observed AE with an associated global mean cost (interquartile range) of

Verification and Validation of Health Economic Models for Diabetes.

43 (

Respiratory Compromise in Moderate and Deep Sedation

27–

Does geography matter : meta-analysis of patient safety during procedural sedation with and without capnography.

68). Other frequent AEs, including mild hypotension, bradycardia, tachycardia, mild oxygen desaturation, hypertension, and brief apnea, were estimated to increase health care spending on procedural sedation by

463 Systematic Review and Meta Analysis of the Effectiveness of Capnography Monitoring for Detecting Severe Oxygen Desaturation During Endoscopic Procedural Sedation

2.2 billion annually in the US. Conclusion All sedation-related AEs can increase health care costs and result in substantial delays or cancellations of subsequent procedures. The prevention of even minor AEs during procedural sedation may be crucial to ensuring its value as a health care service.