Riaan Rossouw

The impact of tourism on poverty in South Africa

This paper evaluates the potential impact of tourism on poverty in South Africa on the basis of recent survey data on international tourism spending patterns. It looks at three scenarios, using an applied general equilibrium model. The main finding is that the poor benefit very little in the short term from additional tourism income. A further finding is that domestic and international tourist expenditure affect the economy differently; both markets are therefore important. In essence, the research confirms that tourism receipts can be used as a tool to alleviate poverty, but in South Africa this must be supported by policies that focus on the labour market and human resource development.

The Cape Town International Jazz Festival: More than just jazz

Economic impact studies have been used to value goods with the characteristics of both public and private goods, such as arts festivals, and have been useful in providing a quantifiable monetary estimate of their worth and, more accurately, of the impact of such events on a specific region. This paper provides just such a valuation, using economic impact analysis conducted on surveys of visitor and organiser spending at the 2009 Cape Town International Jazz Festival. On the basis of the survey data and event budget, a social accounting matrix (SAM) for the Western Cape Province was used to estimate the economic value of the festival to the provinces economy (using the classic SAMs multiplier approach). The results of the analysis show that the festival generates approximately R158 million via visitor and organiser spending, and that 1059 jobs depend on it.

The Significance of Festivals to Regional Economies: Measuring the Economic Value of the Grahamstown National Arts Festival in South Africa:

This paper estimates the economic value of South Africas longest running national arts festival, the Grahamstown National Arts Festival in the Eastern Cape Province. The Eastern Cape is a middle-income province (6.6% of national GDP), settles 9.6% of the South African population and has a high unemployment rate. A survey was conducted in July 2009, with 450 visitors completing a structured questionnaire at various sampling locations across the festival area. A social accounting matrix (SAM) for the province was used to estimate the economic value of the arts festival to the regions economy (adopting the classical SAMs multiplier approach) with visitor depending data. This research shows that the festival makes a significant contribution to revenue generation as well as to job creation, thereby confirming that investments made by government in arts and culture can address economic objectives.

Assimilation of Tourism Satellite Accounts and Applied General Equilibrium Models to Inform Tourism Policy Analysis

Historically, tourism policy analysis in South Africa has posed challenges to accurate measurement. The primary reason for this is that tourism is not designated as an ‘industry’ in standard economic accounts. This paper therefore demonstrates the relevance and need for applied general equilibrium (AGE) models to be completed and extended through an integration with tourism satellite accounts (TSAs) as a tool for policy makers (especially tourism policy makers) in South Africa. The paper sets out the reasons behind the need for economic models for policy analysis and other purposes, and gives an overview of old and new approaches to tourism policy modelling. The relevance of integrated models to, specifically, tourism policy analysis both internationally and in the South African context is discussed, followed by an illustrative empirical simulation of an exogenous inbound tourism expansion of 10%, against the background of the relationship between tourism and economic development. Furthermore, the indirect effects of an input–output model are also presented for comparison. The results confirm that the integrated approach is a more accurate tool for policy analysis.

The economic impact of hunting in the Northern Cape province.

We here estimate the economic impact of hunting (both biltong and trophy) on South Africas Northern Cape province economy. This study used the input-output (social accounting matrix) and multiplier analyses to evaluate the economic impact of hunting in the regional economy of the Northern Cape province. Data on biltong hunting were derived from a national survey conducted in 2007 and data on trophy hunting were derived from the Professional Hunting Association of South Africa (PHASA). The results indicated that the direct economic impact of hunting in the Northern Cape province economy, resulting from increased expenditure, exceeded R696.1 million for 2007. This direct impact resulted in a total economic impact in the order of R774.3 million, and consequently, in a multiplier effect of 1.11. With regard to employment, it was estimated that some 9072 jobs plus those of the employees directly involved might be dependent on hunting in the province, thereby supporting the notion that this is a viable and important sector of the tourism industry.

Expenditure-based segmentation of visitors to Aardklop National Arts Festival

Competition in the festival market has important implications for South African arts/cultural festivals. To assist a festival to remain sustainable, market segmentation is an effective tool to divide existing and potential markets into homogenous groups based on meaningful characteristics. The aim of this article is to segment visitors (by using visitor expenditure as segmentation method) to one of South Africas largest arts festivals, namely the Aardklop National Arts Festival held annually in Potchefstroom in the North West province. A questionnaire survey (N=1 671) was conducted annually at the festival and data from 2005 to 2008 were analysed. In the results four expenditure segments were identified and the analysis confirmed significant differences in socio-demographic and behavioural variables/characteristics between these different expenditure groups. Managerial and marketing implications are consequently proposed for the festival organisers.

Game ranching inter-sectoral linkages: A structural path analysis for South Africa

Unfamiliarity with the economic structure of the game ranching sector is regarded as one of the reasons why questions are raised with regard to the potential economic impact of continued growth in the sector. This study employs structural path analysis to provide a better understanding and subsequently improves the ability to conceptualise the potential economic impact of the sector. Amongst others, results revealed strong economic links between the community, social and personal, chemicals and chemical products, manufacturing and equipment, transport equipment, business services sector, and so forth, either directly or indirectly, and the game ranching sector. The same accounts for income distribution, with households receiving income from production activities in other sectors that are directly or indirectly generated by stimulus within the game ranching sector. Finally, results underline the fact that game ranching has the potential for making a meaningful contribution towards economic and socioeconomic challenges in South Africa.

Does conservation make sense to local communities

The Kruger National Park in South Africa is a key ecotourism attraction for both domestic and international tourists. The South African National Parks have recently come under pressure to uplift communities and to build relationships with communities. This study therefore aimed to answer the question: how do communities benefit from the Kruger Park? Two surveys were conducted: a tourist survey to estimate expenditures, and a community survey to determine the perceived contribution of the Park. The results show that the Park has a significant impact on the local economies in both income and employment generation. Local communities have a positive attitude to the Park and deem it to have a beneficial effect on their quality of life.

Identifying Thailand’s high-potential export opportunities in ASEAN+3 countries

Purpose This paper aims to identify Thailand’s realistic export opportunities (REOs) in the ASEAN+3 countries (i.e. ASEAN, Greater China, Japan and South Korea), which together constitute an economically dynamic region and a strategic export destination for Thailand. Furthermore, the paper seeks to determine the extent to which Thailand already has a share in ASEAN+3 countries and where new opportunities lie. This allows the formulation of appropriate export promotion strategies for Thailand. Design/methodology/approach The methodology used is a decision support model (DSM) which uses an extensive data-filtering system to systematically screen and eliminate less-promising product–country combinations to ultimately reveal high-potential REOs. Product–country combinations are screened on the basis of country risk; macro-economic country performance; market potential in terms of import growth and import market size; and market access conditions, including market concentration and the existence of trade barriers. The thus narrowed-down REOs are categorised according to Thailand’s relative market share in, and the characteristics of, the identified import markets. Findings The study reveals that the ASEAN+3 countries account for about 40 per cent of the total potential export value of Thailand’s REOs in the world, with China leading the way (12.45 per cent), followed by Japan (8.56 per cent) and South Korea (6.23 per cent). However, Thailand has a relatively small or intermediately small market share in the majority of these REOs, pointing to the need for more offensive and exploratory export promotion strategies. Research limitations/implications The ASEAN+3 countries – given that they are an abundant source of REOs for Thailand and are in Thailand’s “backyard” – should receive more focused attention and resources in government export promotion efforts. The recent launch of the ASEAN Economic Community and the proposed establishment of an East Asia Free Trade Area lend weight to the idea of Thailand adopting a strong regional focus in its export activities. Practical implications The insights derived from the study are valuable for export promotion officials, industry representatives and practising exporters alike, as they constitute an easy-to-digest snapshot of high-potential REOs for Thailand in the ASEAN+3 region. This makes for more efficient planning and prioritising of export development activities, and a more streamlined approach to resource allocation. Originality/value Export promotion shows diminishing returns and requires sustainable strategies and interventions. The value in this paper lies in its description of an innovative market selection tool, the DSM, which is able to process and filter high volumes of information and arrive at a shortlist of high-potential REOs for Thailand in the ASEAN+3 countries. The paper represents a concise case study of the DSM in practice, which should be of particular interest to export promotion agencies, industry associations and both new and more established exporting countries.

The impact of plurilateral trade agreements on developing countries – to participate or not to participate?

ABSTRACT In the wake of the impasse in the Doha Development Round of multilateral trade talks, sector-specific plurilateral trade agreements (PTAs) have been gaining traction. However, PTAs mostly appeal to developed countries, with the uptake among developing countries (including least-developed countries) being very limited. This article investigates the factors contributing to such a phenomenon, whether there is indeed merit in developing countries playing a more active role in PTAs and how they might be encouraged to do so. Both qualitative and quantitative analyses were conducted with specific attention being given to the effects, on a selection of developing countries, of participation in four PTAs: the Trade in Services Agreement, the Government Procurement Agreement, the Environmental Goods Agreement and the Information Technology Agreement II. Among the findings was that although, according to the qualitative analysis, policymakers are generally disinterested in the four PTAs because they are not aligned to the countries’ economic interests or they threaten policy space, the quantitative analysis revealed that gains could often be made from more active participation in these agreements. This clearly points to a research gap and highlights the need for more in-depth analysis of the potential of PTAs in the developing world.