Ricardo J. Caballero

Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan

In this paper, we propose a bank-based explanation for the decade-long Japanese slowdown following the asset price collapse in the early 1990s. We start with the well-known observation that most large Japanese banks were only able to comply with capital standards because regulators were lax in their inspections. To facilitate this forbearance the banks often engaged in sham loan restructurings that kept credit flowing to otherwise insolvent borrowers (that we call zombies). Thus, the normal competitive outcome whereby the zombies would shed workers and lose market share was thwarted. Our model highlights the restructuring implications of the zombie problem. The counterpart of the congestion created by the zombies is a reduction of the profits for healthy firms, which discourages their entry and investment. In this context, even solvent banks do not find good lending opportunities. We confirm our storys key predictions that zombie-dominated industries exhibit more depressed job creation and destruction, and lower productivity. We present firm-level regressions showing that the increase in zombies depressed the investment and employment growth of non-zombies and widened the productivity gap between zombies and non-zombies.

Consumption puzzles and precautionary savings

Abstract When marginal utility is convex, agents accumulate savings as a precautionary measure against labor-income eventualities. This paper shows that precautionary savings can go a long way in making the excess-growth, excess-smoothness and excess-sensitivity features of consumption consistent with the stochastic processes of labor income observed in the U.S. at the microeconomic level.

Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment

Investment is often irreversible, in that installed capital has little or no value unless used in production. In the presence of ongoing uncertainty, an individual firms irreversible investment policy optimally alternates short bursts of positive gross investment to periods of inaction, when the installed capital stock is allowed to depreciate. The behavior of aggregate investment series is characterized by sluggish, continuous adjustment instead. We argue in this paper that aggregate dynamics should be interpreted in terms of unsynchronized irreversible investment decisions by heterogenous firms, rather than in terms of ad-hoc adjustment cost functions in a representative-agent framework. We propose a closed-form solution for a realistic model of sequential irreversible investment, characterize the aggregate implications of microeconomic irreversibility and idiosyncratic uncertainty, and interpret U.S. data in light of the theoretical results.

Financial Crash, Commodity Prices, and Global Imbalances

The current financial crisis has its origins in global asset scarcity, which led to large capital flows toward the United States and to the creation of asset bubbles that eventually burst. In its first phase the crash exacerbated the shortage of assets in the world economy, which triggered a partial re-creation of the bubble in commodities markets, and oil markets in particular. This bubble in turn led to an increase in petrodollars seeking financial assets in the United States, which became a source of stability for the U.S. external balance. The second phase of the crisis is more conventional and began to emerge in the summer of 2008, when it became apparent that the financial crisis would permeate the real economy and sharply slow global growth. This slowdown worked to reverse the tight commodity market conditions required for a bubble to develop, ultimately destroying the commodity bubble.

Internal versus external economies in European industry

Abstract This paper presents estimates of indexes of internal returns to scale and external economies for two-digit manufacturing industries in the four European countries for which the requisite data are available in adequate length: West Germany, France, the U.K., and Belgium. Overall, we find very little evidence of internal increasing returns to scale: of the thirteen two-digit industries, only Rubber and Plastic Products, Agricultural and Industrial Machinery, and Mineral Products exhibit any significant internal increasing returns to scale, and for none of the three is internal increasing returns present in more than two of the four countries. Evidence of external economies, on the other hand, exists for all four countries, the effects of which are especially strong in France and Belgium.

External effects in U.S. procyclical productivity

Abstract In this paper we highlight a new dimension of the aggregate procyclical productivity phenomenon. We show that estimates of the degree of returns to scale are larger for manufacturing as a whole than for two-digit industries. Since this difference must be due to factors that are only internalized at the most aggregate level, we term it an external effect. This result rules out explanations based on own-input variation —such as true increasing returns and unmeasured factor utilization tied to own-activity —as the sole explanations for aggregate procyclical productivity. We explore several potential explanations of this external effect.

Kinked Adjustment Costs and Aggregate Dynamics

Because adjustment costs may make infrequent corrections preferable to partial continuous adjustment, microeconomic units often behave quite differently from representative agents in aggregate dynamic models. Idiosyncratic uncertainty precludes perfect coordination of microeconomic adjustment and explains the much smoother behavior of aggregate variables. This paper reviews and extends models of optimal adjustment under uncertainty and of dynamic aggregation, and argues that unsynchronized microeconomic adjustment can provide a sensible, structural interpretation of macroeconomic time series. A simple statistical representation of the process followed by aggregate variables in the presence of microeconomic adjustment costs and of idiosyncratic uncertainty is shown to satisfactorily explain the behavior of U.S. durable consumption data.

The Macroeconomics of Specificity

Specific quasi rents arise in a variety of economic relationships and are exposed to opportunism unless fully protected by contract. Rent appropriation has important macroeconomic consequences. Resources are underutilized, factor markets are segmented, production suffers from technological “sclerosis,” job creation and destruction are unbalanced, recessions are excessively sharp, and expansions run into bottlenecks. While, depending on the shock, expansions may require reinforcement or stabilization, recessions should typically be softened. In the long run, institutions may evolve to alleviate the problem by balancing appropriation. Technology choice will also be affected, with the appropriated factor partially “excluding” the other from production to reduce appropriation.

Trade and Capital Flows: A Financial Frictions Perspective

The classical Heckscher‐Ohlin‐Mundell paradigm states that trade and capital mobility are substitutes in the sense that trade integration reduces the incentives for capital to flow to capital‐scarce countries. In this paper we show that in a world with heterogeneous financial development, a very different conclusion emerges. In particular, in less financially developed economies (South), trade and capital mobility are complements in the sense that trade integration increases the return to capital and thus the incentives for capital to flow to South. This interaction implies that deepening trade integration in South raises net capital inflows (or reduces net capital outflows). It also implies that, at the global level, protectionism may backfire if the goal is to rebalance capital flows.

Effective Labor Regulation and Microeconomic Flexibility

Microeconomic flexibility is at the core of economic growth in modern market economies because it facilitates the process of creative-destruction, The main reason why this process is not infinitely fast, is the presence of adjustment costs, some of them technological, others institutional. Chief among the latter is labor market regulation. While few economists object to the hypothesis that labor market regulation hinders the process of creative-destruction, its empirical support is limited. In this paper we revisit this hypothesis, using a new sectoral panel for 60 countries and a methodology suitable for such a panel. We find that job security regulation clearly hampers the creative-destruction process, especially in countries where regulations are likely to be enforced. Moving from the 20th to the 80th percentile in job security, in countries with strong rule of law, cuts the annual speed of adjustment to shocks by a third while shaving off about one percent from annual productivity growth. The same movement has negligible effects in countries with weak rule of law.