Ricardo O. Amoroso

Frequency and intensity of productivity regime shifts in marine fish stocks

Fish stocks fluctuate both in abundance and productivity (net population increase), and there are many examples demonstrating that productivity increased or decreased due to changes in abundance caused by fishing and, alternatively, where productivity shifted between low and high regimes, entirely unrelated to abundance. Although shifts in productivity regimes have been described, their frequency and intensity have not previously been assessed. We use a database of trends in harvest and abundance of 230 fish stocks to evaluate the proportion of fish stocks in which productivity is primarily related to abundance vs. those that appear to manifest regimes of high or low productivity. We evaluated the statistical support for four hypotheses: (i) the abundance hypothesis, where production is always related to population abundance; (ii) the regimes hypothesis, where production shifts irregularly between regimes that are unrelated to abundance; (iii) the mixed hypothesis, where even though production is related to population abundance, there are irregular changes in this relationship; and (iv) the random hypothesis, where production is random from year to year. We found that the abundance hypothesis best explains 18.3% of stocks, the regimes hypothesis 38.6%, the mixed hypothesis 30.5%, and the random hypothesis 12.6%. Fisheries management agencies need to recognize that irregular changes in productivity are common and that harvest regulation and management targets may need to be adjusted whenever productivity changes.

Inferring Complex Hydrographic Processes Using Remote-Sensed Images: Turbulent Fluxes in the Patagonian Gulfs and Implications for Scallop Metapopulation Dynamics

Abstract San Jose Gulf is a small semienclosed bay connected by a narrow mouth to a much larger basin, the San Matias Gulf. Intriguingly, this comparatively small water body, characterized by high biological productivity, has contributed most of the historical shellfish production in the region. A remote sensing approach allowed us to advance a composite conjecture aimed at explaining that phenomenon. A combination of circulation, strong tidal currents, and coastal topography leads to the formation of a frontal system inside San Jose Gulf and to the development of turbulent fluxes that drive the hydrographic regime. The front divides the San Jose Gulf in two domains (west and east). The origin of water flowing into the west domain was tracked to the Valdes Frontal System, on the continental shelf. The west domain is highly turbulent due to the formation of vortexes and dipoles during the tidal cycle. Detachable dipoles formed at the edge of jets outflowing from San Jose Gulf can reach the central part of San Matias Gulf, constituting a possible larval transport mechanism between the two gulfs. Our results led us to postulate that (1) nutrients from the continental shelf are “trapped in” and larvae are retained in the east domain of San Jose Gulf, resulting in persistently high biomass of secondary producers, and (2) asymmetrical exchange, in the form of vorticial flows, “pumps out” waterborne material from the San Jose Gulf into San Matias Gulf, affecting the connectivity between the two basins.

Global analysis of depletion and recovery of seabed biota after bottom trawling disturbance

Significance Bottom trawling is the most widespread source of physical disturbance to the world’s seabed. Predictions of trawling impacts are needed to underpin risk assessment, and they are relevant for the fishing industry, conservation, management, and certification bodies. We estimate depletion and recovery of seabed biota after trawling by fitting models to data from a global data compilation. Trawl gears removed 6–41% of faunal biomass per pass, and recovery times posttrawling were 1.9–6.4 y depending on fisheries and environmental context. These results allow the estimation of trawling impacts on unprecedented spatial scales and for data poor fisheries and enable an objective analysis of tradeoffs between harvesting fish and the wider ecosystem effects of such activities. Bottom trawling is the most widespread human activity affecting seabed habitats. Here, we collate all available data for experimental and comparative studies of trawling impacts on whole communities of seabed macroinvertebrates on sedimentary habitats and develop widely applicable methods to estimate depletion and recovery rates of biota after trawling. Depletion of biota and trawl penetration into the seabed are highly correlated. Otter trawls caused the least depletion, removing 6% of biota per pass and penetrating the seabed on average down to 2.4 cm, whereas hydraulic dredges caused the most depletion, removing 41% of biota and penetrating the seabed on average 16.1 cm. Median recovery times posttrawling (from 50 to 95% of unimpacted biomass) ranged between 1.9 and 6.4 y. By accounting for the effects of penetration depth, environmental variation, and uncertainty, the models explained much of the variability of depletion and recovery estimates from single studies. Coupled with large-scale, high-resolution maps of trawling frequency and habitat, our estimates of depletion and recovery rates enable the assessment of trawling impacts on unprecedented spatial scales.

Estimating the sustainability of towed fishing‐gear impacts on seabed habitats: a simple quantitative risk assessment method applicable to data‐limited fisheries

1. Impacts of bottom fishing, particularly trawling and dredging, on seabed (benthic) habitats are commonly perceived to pose serious environmental risks. Quantitative ecological risk assessment can be used to evaluate actual risks and to help guide the choice of management measures needed to meet sustainability objectives. 2. We develop and apply a quantitative method for assessing the risks to benthic habitats by towed bottom-fishing gears. The method is based on a simple equation for relative benthic status (RBS), derived by solving the logistic population growth equation for the equilibrium state. Estimating RBS requires only maps of fishing intensity and habitat type — and parameters for impact and recovery rates, which may be taken from meta-analyses of multiple experimental studies of towed-gear impacts. The aggregate status of habitats in an assessed region is indicated by the distribution of RBS values for the region. The application of RBS is illustrated for a tropical shrimp-trawl fishery. 3. The status of trawled habitats and their RBS value depend on impact rate (depletion per trawl), recovery rate and exposure to trawling. In the shrimp-trawl fishery region, gravel habitat was most sensitive, and though less exposed than sand or muddy-sand, was most affected overall (regional RBS=91% relative to un-trawled RBS=100%). Muddy-sand was less sensitive, and though relatively most exposed, was less affected overall (RBS=95%). Sand was most heavily trawled but least sensitive and least affected overall (RBS=98%). Region-wide, >94% of habitat area had >80% RBS because most trawling and impacts were confined to small areas. RBS was also applied to the regions benthic invertebrate communities with similar results. 4. Conclusions. Unlike qualitative or categorical trait-based risk assessments, the RBS method provides a quantitative estimate of status relative to an unimpacted baseline, with minimal requirements for input data. It could be applied to bottom-contact fisheries worldwide, including situations where detailed data on characteristics of seabed habitats, or the abundance of seabed fauna are not available. The approach supports assessment against sustainability criteria and evaluation of alternative management strategies (e.g. closed areas, effort management, gear modifications).

Investigating the effects of mobile bottom fishing on benthic biota: a systematic review protocol

BackgroundMobile bottom fishing, such as trawling and dredging, is the most widespread direct human impact on marine benthic systems. Knowledge of the impacts of different gear types on different habitats, the species most sensitive to impacts and the potential for habitats to recover are often needed to inform implementation of an ecosystem approach to fisheries and strategies for biodiversity conservation. This knowledge helps to identify management options that maximise fisheries yield whilst minimising negative impacts on benthic systems.Methods/designThe methods are designed to identify and collate evidence from experimental studies (e.g. before/after, control/impact) and comparative studies (spanning a gradient of fishing intensity) to identify changes in state (numbers, biomass, diversity etc.) of benthic biota (flora and fauna), resulting from a variety of mobile bottom fishing scenarios. The primary research question that the outputs will be used to address is: “to what extent does a given intensity of bottom fishing affect the abundance and/or diversity of benthic biota?” Due to the variety of gear and habitat types studied, the primary question will be closely linked with secondary questions. These include: “how does the effect of bottom fishing on various benthic biota metrics (species, faunal type, trait, taxon etc.) vary with (1) gear type and (2) habitat, and (3) gear type-habitat interactions?” and (4) “how might properties of the community and environment affect the resilience (and recovery potential) of a community to bottom fishing?”

Comment on “Tracking the global footprint of fisheries”

Kroodsma et al. (Reports, 23 February 2018, p. 904) mapped the global footprint of fisheries. Their estimates of footprint and resulting contrasts between the scale of fishing and agriculture are an artifact of the spatial scale of analysis. Reanalyses of their global (all vessels) and regional (trawling) data at higher resolution reduced footprint estimates by factors of >10 and >5, respectively.

Bottom trawl fishing footprints on the world’s continental shelves

Significance We conducted a systematic, high-resolution analysis of bottom trawl fishing footprints for 24 regions on continental shelves and slopes of five continents and New Zealand. The proportion of seabed trawled varied >200-fold among regions (from 0.4 to 80.7% of area to a depth of 1,000 m). Within 18 regions, more than two-thirds of seabed area remained untrawled during study periods of 2–6 years. Relationships between metrics of total trawling activity and footprint were strong and positive, providing a method to estimate trawling footprints for regions where high-resolution data are not available. Trawling footprints were generally smaller in regions where fisheries met targets for exploitation rates, implying collateral environmental benefits of effective fisheries management. Bottom trawlers land around 19 million tons of fish and invertebrates annually, almost one-quarter of wild marine landings. The extent of bottom trawling footprint (seabed area trawled at least once in a specified region and time period) is often contested but poorly described. We quantify footprints using high-resolution satellite vessel monitoring system (VMS) and logbook data on 24 continental shelves and slopes to 1,000-m depth over at least 2 years. Trawling footprint varied markedly among regions: from <10% of seabed area in Australian and New Zealand waters, the Aleutian Islands, East Bering Sea, South Chile, and Gulf of Alaska to >50% in some European seas. Overall, 14% of the 7.8 million-km2 study area was trawled, and 86% was not trawled. Trawling activity was aggregated; the most intensively trawled areas accounting for 90% of activity comprised 77% of footprint on average. Regional swept area ratio (SAR; ratio of total swept area trawled annually to total area of region, a metric of trawling intensity) and footprint area were related, providing an approach to estimate regional trawling footprints when high-resolution spatial data are unavailable. If SAR was ≤0.1, as in 8 of 24 regions, there was >95% probability that >90% of seabed was not trawled. If SAR was 7.9, equal to the highest SAR recorded, there was >95% probability that >70% of seabed was trawled. Footprints were smaller and SAR was ≤0.25 in regions where fishing rates consistently met international sustainability benchmarks for fish stocks, implying collateral environmental benefits from sustainable fishing.

Reply to Szuwalski: Policies robust to uncertainty in causes of productivity changes are needed.

Szuwalski (1) has greatly misinterpreted the principal message of our report (2). We did not claim you could reliably estimate regime shifts for individual stocks. Table 2 in our report (2) clearly shows that the chance of improper assignment of the hypothesis is very high, even when you have a long time-series of data in hand. At any point in time, managers will rarely know if observed changes in productivity are a result of regime changes, changes in biomass, or random.