Richard Batrla-Utermann

Prediction models of long‐term Cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis B patients: Risk scores integrating host and virus profiles

Integrating host and HBV characteristics, this study aimed to develop models for predicting long‐term cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) patients. This analysis included hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)‐seropositive and anti‐HCV‐seronegative participants from the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer in HBV (R.E.V.E.A.L.‐HBV) cohort. Newly developed cirrhosis and HCC were ascertained through regular follow‐up ultrasonography, computerized linkage with national health databases, and medical chart reviews. Two‐thirds of the participants were allocated for risk model derivation and another one‐third for model validation. The risk prediction model included age, gender, HBV e antigen (HBeAg) serostatus, serum levels of HBV DNA, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT), quantitative serum HBsAg levels, and HBV genotypes. Additionally, the family history was included in the prediction model for HCC. Coxs proportional hazards regression coefficients for cirrhosis and HCC predictors were converted into risk scores. The areas under receiver operating curve (AUROCs) were used to evaluate the performance of risk models. Elder age, male, HBeAg, genotype C, and increasing levels of ALT, HBV DNA, and HBsAg were all significantly associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis and HCC. The risk scores estimated from the derivation set could accurately categorize participants with low, medium, and high cirrhosis and HCC risk in the validation set (P < 0.001). The AUROCs for predicting 3‐year, 5‐year, and 10‐year cirrhosis risk ranged 0.83‐0.86 and 0.79‐0.82 for the derivation and validation sets, respectively. The AUROC for predicting 5‐year, 10‐year, 15‐year risk of HCC ranged 0.86‐0.89 and 0.84‐0.87 in the derivation and validation sets, respectively. Conclusion: The risk prediction models of cirrhosis and HCC by integrating host and HBV profiles have excellent prediction accuracy and discriminatory ability. They may be used for clinical management of chronic hepatitis B patients. (Hepatology 2013;58:546‐554)

Spontaneous seroclearance of hepatitis B seromarkers and subsequent risk of hepatocellular carcinoma

Background and aims The associations between long-term risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and spontaneous seroclearance of HBV e antigen (HBeAg), HBV DNA and HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) have never been examined by a prospective study using serially measured seromarkers. This study aimed to assess the importance of spontaneous HBeAg, HBV DNA and HBsAg seroclearance in the prediction of HCC risk. Methods This study included 2946 HBsAg seropositive individuals who were seronegative for antibodies against HCV and free of liver cirrhosis. Serial serum samples collected at study entry and follow-up health examinations were tested for HBeAg, HBV DNA and HBsAg. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate the HRs of developing HCC after seroclearance of HBV markers. Results The HR (95% CI) of developing HCC after seroclearance of HBeAg, HBV DNA and HBsAg during follow-up was 0.63 (0.38 to 1.05), 0.24 (0.11 to 0.57) and 0.18 (0.09 to 0.38), respectively, after adjustment for age, gender and serum level of alanine aminotransferase at study entry. High HBV DNA levels at the seroclearance of HBeAg (mean±SD, 4.35±1.64 log10 IU/mL) may explain the non-significant association between HBeAg seroclearance and HCC risk. Among HBeAg seronegative participants with detectable serum HBV DNA at study entry, the lifetime (30–75-years-old) cumulative incidence of HCC was 4.0%, 6.6% and 14.2%, respectively, for those with seroclearance of both HBV DNA and HBsAg, seroclearance of HBV DNA only, and seroclearance of neither. Conclusions Spontaneous seroclearance of HBV DNA and HBsAg are important predictors of reduced HCC risk.

A predictive scoring system for the seroclearance of HBsAg in HBeAg-seronegative chronic hepatitis B patients with genotype B or C infection

BACKGROUND & AIMS Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is the most ideal end point in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. This study develops a predictive scoring system to assess whether the addition of serum levels HBsAg may improve the predictability of HBsAg loss. METHODS This study included 2491 untreated participants with genotype B or C HBV infection, who were HBsAg-seropositive, HBeAg-seronegative, anti-HCV-seronegative, and cirrhosis free at study entry. Regression coefficients of predictors in Cox Regression models were converted into integer scores for predicting HBsAg seroclearance. Predictive accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), and predictive accuracies of models with and without serum HBsAg levels were compared. RESULTS Low serum levels of both HBsAg and HBV DNA were the strongest predictors of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance. Compared to baseline serum HBsAg levels ≥1000 IU/ml, the multivariate adjusted rate ratio of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance was 10.96 (7.92-15.16) for those with baseline serum HBsAg levels <100 IU/ml. The predictive ability of HBsAg levels was modified by HBV viral load, showing a weaker effect in those with higher viral loads, and the strongest effect among those with undetectable viral loads. The inclusion of serum HBsAg levels greatly improved the AUROC for predicting HBsAg seroclearance at the fifth (from 0.79 [0.787-0.792] to 0.89 [0.889-0.891]) and tenth year (from 0.73 [0.728-0.732] to 0.84 [0.839-0.841]) after study entry. CONCLUSIONS Incorporated into an easy-to-use scoring system, HBV viral load and quantitative serum HBsAg levels can accurately predict HBsAg seroclearance.

Blood-based biomarkers in Alzheimer disease: Current state of the science and a novel collaborative paradigm for advancing from discovery to clinic

The last decade has seen a substantial increase in research focused on the identification of blood‐based biomarkers that have utility in Alzheimers disease (AD). Blood‐based biomarkers have significant advantages of being time‐ and cost‐efficient as well as reduced invasiveness and increased patient acceptance. Despite these advantages and increased research efforts, the field has been hampered by lack of reproducibility and an unclear path for moving basic discovery toward clinical utilization. Here we reviewed the recent literature on blood‐based biomarkers in AD to provide a current state of the art. In addition, a collaborative model is proposed that leverages academic and industry strengths to facilitate the field in moving past discovery only work and toward clinical use. Key resources are provided. This new public‐private partnership model is intended to circumvent the traditional handoff model and provide a clear and useful paradigm for the advancement of biomarker science in AD and other neurodegenerative diseases.

Serum Levels of Hepatitis B Surface Antigen and DNA Can Predict Inactive Carriers With Low Risk of Disease Progression

Serum levels of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA (≤2000 IU/mL) and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) (<1000 IU/mL) have been shown to distinguish inactive carriers with high accuracy. The goal of this study was to validate the predictability of one‐time measurement of quantitative HBsAg and HBV DNA levels for inactive carrier status and chronic hepatitis B (CHB) progression in a community‐based cohort. This study included 1529 participants chronically infected with HBV genotype B or C from the REVEAL‐HBV cohort. They were ascertained as inactive or active CHB after 18 months of follow‐up. Validity of the one‐time measurement was assessed by sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic curves, while associations with clinical outcomes were calculated with Cox proportional hazards regressions. The one‐time baseline measurement of HBsAg <1000 IU/mL and HBV DNA <2000 IU/mL distinguished inactive carriers from active CHB with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy of 71%, 85%, 83%, 74%, and 78%, respectively. Those identified as inactive carriers using the one‐time baseline measurement had multivariate adjusted hazard ratios of 0.36 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20‐0.63) and 0.36 (0.23‐0.56) for hepatocellular carcinoma and liver cirrhosis, respectively, and an adjusted rate ratio of 6.97 (95% CI, 5.21‐9.33) for HBsAg seroclearance. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of predicting these outcomes using the one‐time definition were similar to those obtained when using long‐term follow‐up defined carrier status for prediction. Conclusion: This study confirms the predictability of a one‐time combined HBsAg and HBV DNA measurement for future inactive carriers. This single‐point strategy provides new and complementary information useful for management of patients with chronic hepatitis B infection. (Hepatology 2016;64:381‐389)

Distinct seromarkers predict different milestones of chronic hepatitis B progression

Spontaneous seroclearance of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA undetectability are important milestones of chronic hepatitis B and major treatment endpoints of antiviral therapy. This study investigated the role of serum hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) levels and established models for predicting HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability. A total of 2,139 HBsAg‐seropositive, anti‐HCV‐seronegative, and treatment‐naïve participants without liver cirrhosis at study entry were included. Spontaneous HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability were analyzed in 431 HBeAg‐seropositive participants and 1,708 HBeAg‐seronegative participants, respectively. Regression coefficients of predictors in Cox proportional hazard models were converted into integer scores for predicting seroclearance and predictive accuracy was assessed with time‐dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The HBV DNA level was the most important predictor of HBeAg seroclearance but serum HBsAg level was the most significant predictor of HBV DNA undetectability. Compared to individuals with HBsAg levels ≥10,000 IU/mL, the multivariate‐adjusted rate ratio (95% confidence interval) of HBV DNA undetectability was 1.20 (0.62‐2.30), 2.49 (1.31‐4.75), and 6.08 (3.19‐11.61) for those with serum HBsAg levels of 1,000‐9,999, 100‐999, and <100 IU/mL, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of the prediction models for predicting the 5‐ and 10‐year probabilities of HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability were 0.85 (0.80‐0.90) and 0.78 (0.73‐0.83) for HBeAg seroclearance, and 0.77 (0.72‐0.82) and 0.73 (0.70‐0.76) for HBV DNA undetectability. Conclusion: Prediction models incorporating important host and virus factors can predict HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability. Serum HBsAg levels rather than HBV DNA is the most important predictor of spontaneous HBV DNA undetectability. Serum HBsAg levels should be monitored in the management of patients with HBeAg‐seronegative chronic hepatitis B. (Hepatology 2014;60:77–86)

Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers for Alzheimer’s Disease: A View of the Regulatory Science Qualification Landscape from the Coalition Against Major Diseases CSF Biomarker Team

Abstract Alzheimer’s disease (AD) drug development is burdened with the current requirement to conduct large, lengthy, and costly trials to overcome uncertainty in patient progression and effect size on treatment outcome measures. There is an urgent need for the discovery, development, and implementation of novel, objectively measured biomarkers for AD that would aid selection of the appropriate subpopulation of patients in clinical trials, and presumably, improve the likelihood of successfully evaluating innovative treatment options. Amyloid deposition and tau in the brain, which are most commonly assessed either in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) or by molecular imaging, are consistently and widely accepted. Nonetheless, a clear gap still exists in the accurate identification of subjects that truly have the hallmarks of AD. The Coalition Against Major Diseases (CAMD), one of 12 consortia of the Critical Path Institute (C-Path), aims to streamline drug development for AD and related dementias by advancing regulatory approved drug development tools for clinical trials through precompetitive data sharing and adoption of consensus clinical data standards. This report focuses on the regulatory process for biomarker qualification, briefly comments on how it contrasts with approval or clearance of companion diagnostics, details the qualifications currently available to the field of AD, and highlights the current challenges facing the landscape of CSF biomarkers qualified as hallmarks of AD. Finally, it recommends actions to accelerate regulatory qualification of CSF biomarkers that would, in turn, improve the efficiency of AD therapeutic development.

Incorporating Serum Level of Hepatitis B Surface Antigen or Omitting Level of Hepatitis B Virus DNA Does not Affect Calculation of Risk for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients Without Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS Tests for hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA are expensive, and levels of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) can help determine the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic HBV infection. We investigated how adding data to knowing the level of HBsAg or excluding measurement of HBV DNA affected the accuracy of the Risk Estimation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B (REACH-B) scoring system in determining the risk for HCC. METHODS We collected data from 3584 patients with chronic HBV infection who were positive for HBsAg, free of cirrhosis, and participated in the community-based Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer (REVEAL)-HBV cohort (208 cases of HCC) from 1991 through 1992; they were followed up until December 31, 2008. Data from this cohort were used to derive our scoring system. We validated our system using data from 2688 HBsAg-seropositive patients (191 cases of HCC) who participated in the hospital-based Elucidation of Risk Factors for Disease Control or Advancement in Taiwanese Hepatitis B Carriers (ERADICATE-B) study at the National Taiwan University Hospital from 1985 through 2000; they were followed up until December 31, 2010. We also validated the system using data from 426 patients with chronic HBV infection who participated in the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) study (46 cases of HCC) from 1997 through 2000; patients were followed up for a median of 225 weeks. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves and calibration charts. RESULTS When data on HBsAg were added to the REACH-B scoring system, it identified patients in the ERADICATE-B study who developed HCC within 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82-1.02), 0.78 (95% CI, 0.70-0.86), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76-0.84), respectively. It identified patients in the CUHK study who developed HCC in 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.75-0.95), 0.82 (95% CI, 0.70-0.93), and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.70-0.870), respectively. When data on HBV DNA were removed from the REACH-B scoring system, it identified patients in the ERADICATE-B cohort who developed HCC in 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.81-1.0), 0.76 (95% CI, 0.68-0.85), and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.73-0.82), respectively. It identified patents in the CUHK cohort who developed HCC in 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79-0.92), 0.81 (95% CI, 0.71-0.91), and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72-0.87). These modified systems identified patients who developed HCC with similar levels of accuracy as the original REACH-B score (P > .05 in tests of noninferiority). CONCLUSIONS Including data on serum level of HBsAg or removing data on level of HBV DNA do not alter the accuracy of the REACH-B scoring system in determining HCC risk in patients with chronic HBV infection without cirrhosis. It might be cost effective to replace the test for HBV DNA with assays to measure HBsAg in determining HCC risk. These modified scoring systems might replace the REACH-B system in specific situations.

Alzheimer's biomarkers in daily practice (ABIDE) project: Rationale and design

The Alzheimers biomarkers in daily practice (ABIDE) project is designed to translate knowledge on diagnostic tests (magnetic resonance imaging [MRI], cerebrospinal fluid [CSF], and amyloid positron emission tomography [PET]) to daily clinical practice with a focus on mild cognitive impairment (MCI)

Predicting Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Surface Antigen Seroclearance in HBV e Antigen–Negative Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B: External Validation of a Scoring System

BACKGROUND Hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance is the ultimate serological end point in chronic hepatitis B. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction score for spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance in HBV e antigen (HBeAg)-negative patients with chronic hepatitis B due to HBV genotype B or C. METHODS The development cohort included 2491 untreated participants from the community-based REVEAL-HBV study, who were HBeAg negative, anti-hepatitis C virus negative, and cirrhosis free. The independent validation cohort consisted of 1934 hospital-based individuals from the National Taiwan University Hospital. Clinical markers included in the model were age and serum HBV DNA and HBsAg levels. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to create the prediction model. RESULTS A prediction score ranging from 0 to 27 was developed. Predicted probabilities of 5- and 10-year HBsAg seroclearance ranged from 0.95% to 30.49% and from 2.58% to 62.52%, respectively. When applied to the independent validation cohort, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the 5- and 10-year prediction of HBsAg seroclearance in the validation cohort were 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], .76-.88) and 0.74 (95% CI, .70-.78). Model fit was still adequate, according to Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit tests. CONCLUSIONS A clinically applicable prediction score for HBsAg seroclearance was developed and externally validated. This model can assist clinicians in further stratifying risk groups.