Richard Bernknopf

An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.

An economic value of remote-sensing information—Application to agricultural production and maintaining groundwater quality

Presents a collection of slides covering the following topics: This application would not be possible without MRLI, and VOI cannot be estimated without an application; An estimate of VOI for MRLI and the Landsat Data Continuity Mission is

Measuring earthquake risk concentration for hazard mitigation

38.1B ±

Estimating the Benefits of Land Imagery in Environmental Applications: A Case Study in Nonpoint Source Pollution of Groundwater

8.8B for northeastern Iowa; VOI estimate could be lower with additional constraints, land use policies, and management practices; VOI estimate could be higher with larger regions or different applications; By soft-coupling complex geospatial, agricultural production, hydrogeologic and groundwater vulnerability models, our results give regional decision makers natural resource management tools to use in context of protecting public health.

A conceptual market framework for water-bound nitrate pollution

One of the biggest impacts of a disaster is the effect it can have on community and regional housing and the ability of people, communities and regions to recover from the damages. Policy decisions involving investments in loss reduction measures and response and recovery are best informed by the integration of scientific and socioeconomic information. Natural scientists develop hazard scenarios for stakeholders and emergency officials to assess the impacts of a particular disaster outcome. Social scientists have found that housing losses and recovery affect individuals in lower socioeconomic status disproportionately. By combining socioeconomic status data from the US Census with an earthquake scenario for southern California, an event-driven conditional distribution of earthquake risk is used to prioritize investment decisions for earthquake hazard mitigation. Simulation of the damages in the scenario showed a statistically significant risk concentration in census tracts with large numbers of residents of lower socioeconomic status living in multi-family housing and mobile homes. An application of the approach is demonstrated in Los Angeles County as a decision criterion in a building retrofit program. The earthquake scenario was used to evaluate the economic benefits of a program for voluntary mitigation and a combined program of voluntary mitigation and regulated mitigation based on socioeconomic status (mandate requiring mitigation in census tracts meeting specific damage and income thresholds). Although the analysis is a hypothetical scenario based on a simulation of a great earthquake, the results and potential outcomes show that a regulated program with a socioeconomic decision criterion would have significant benefits to vulnerable populations.

The Value of Remotely Sensed Information: The Case of a GRACE-Enhanced Drought Severity Index

Moderate-resolution land imagery (MRLI) is crucial to a more complete assessment of the cumulative, landscape-level effect of agricultural land use and land cover on environmental quality. If this improved assessment yields a net social benefit, then that benefit reflects the value of information (VOI) from MRLI. Environmental quality and the capacity to provide ecosystem services evolve because of human actions, changing natural conditions, and their interaction with natural physical processes. The human actions, in turn, are constrained and redirected by many institutions and regulations such as agricultural, energy, and environmental policies. We present a general framework for bringing together sociologic, biologic, physical, hydrologic, and geologic processes at meaningful scales to interpret environmental implications of MRLI applications. We set out a specific application using MRLI observations to identify crop planting patterns and thus estimate surface management activities that influence groundwater resources over a regional landscape. We tailor the application to the characteristics of nonpoint source groundwater pollution hazards in Iowa to illustrate a general framework in a land use-hydrologic-economic system. In the example, MRLI VOI derives from reducing the risk of both losses to agricultural production and damage to human health and other consequences of contaminated groundwater.

Impacts of Geospatial Information for Decision Making

Abstract The conversion of bottomland hardwood and swamp forests to irrigated agriculture has had problematic consequences for water bodies. Many of these problems can be linked to the use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers to increase crop production. To date, there is little monitoring of nitrogen use in watersheds, which may be due to large fixed costs. Using market-based techniques which have addressed previous environmental challenges, with remotely sensed data to track a pollutant’s source, may be one alternative, by incentivizing nitrogen users to behave according to abatement costs traced back to the point of origin of a pollutant.

Estimating the Impact of Drought on Agriculture Using the U.S. Drought Monitor

A decision framework is developed for quantifying the economic value of information (VOI) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission for drought monitoring, with a focus on the potential contributions of groundwater storage and soil moisture measurements from the GRACE Data Assimilation (GRACE-DA) System. The study consists of: (a) the development of a conceptual framework to evaluate the socioeconomic value of GRACE-DA as a contributing source of information to drought monitoring; (b) structured listening sessions to understand the needs of stakeholders who are affected by drought monitoring; (c) econometric analysis based on the conceptual framework that characterizes the contribution of GRACE-DA to the US Drought Monitor (USDM) in capturing the effects of drought on the agricultural sector; and (d) a demonstration of how the improved characterization of drought conditions may influence decisions made in a real-world drought disaster assistance program. Results show that GRACE-DA has the potential to lower the uncertainty associated with our understanding of drought, and that this improved understanding has the potential to change policy decisions that lead to tangible societal benefits.

A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

Geospatial information contributes to decisions by both societal decision-makers and individuals. Investments in geospatial data have become a part of the political and policy debates that are focused on reducing government spending, as well as increasing societal wellbeing. Although many examples in our everyday life come to mind, good benchmarks of the value of geospatial information are missing. Quantifying this value involves comparisons of the decisions that would have been made with and without the information, and what the consequences of those decisions would have been. The Value of Information (VOI) is linked to the outcome of choice in uncertain situations. Individuals may be willing to pay for improved information depending on how uncertain they are, what is at stake, and the degree to which the benefit exceeds the cost of the information (Macauley 2006). Problems with data access, content interpretation (due to obscure file formats, for example) or use of the data all reduce the information value. Systematic analysis of the benefits of geospatial information in decisions focuses on the quantitative demonstration of why and how scientific data such as earth observations have economic value. Case studies apply the science and technology of geospatial data to inform decisions concerning the costs and benefits of economic and resource development. Two cases studies are provided which show net economic value but different approaches to assessing the VOI. Further steps in refining communication skills, providing a broad acceptance of approaches and a pool of experts to support community needs is envisioned in addressing paths forward.