Richard Curtin

The Effects of Response Rate Changes on the Index of Consumer Sentiment

From 1979 to 1996, the Survey of Consumer Attitudes response rate remained roughly 70 percent. But number of calls to complete an interview and proportion of interviews requiring refusal conversion doubled. Using call-record histories, we explore what the consequences of lower response rates would have been if these additional efforts had not been undertaken. Both number of calls and initially cooperating (vs. initially refusing) are related to the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS), but only number of calls survives a control for demographic characteristics. We assess the impact of excluding respondents who required refusal conversion (which reduces the response rate 5-10 percentage points), respondents who required more than five calls to complete the interview (reducing the response rate about 25 percentage points), and those who required more than two calls (a reduction of about 50 percentage points). We found no effect of excluding any of these respondent groups on cross-sectional estimates of the ICS using monthly samples of hundreds of cases. For yearly estimates, based on thousands of cases, the exclusion of respondents who required more calls (though not of initial refusers) had an effect, but a very small one. One of the exclusions generally affected estimates of change over time in the ICS, irrespective of sample size.

Business Creation in the United States: Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics II Initial Assessment

PSED II began in 2005 with the selection of a cohort of 1,214 nascent entrepreneurs chosen from a representative sample of 31,845 adults. The first 12 month follow-up interviews were completed with 80% of the original cohort. The project is designed to replicate, with appropriate methodological improvements, PSED I. The PSED provides a unique, unprecedented description of the initial stages of the entrepreneurial process. The results suggest that prior experience and an appropriate strategy are critical for completing a new firm birth; personal attributes, motivations, and contexts seem to have minimal effect. The PSED findings have substantial implications for policy makers who wish to improve the capacity of the US entrepreneurial sector to confront global competitive threats with a steady flow of new and innovative firms.

Indicators of Consumer Behavior: The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers

THE Survey Research Center at The University of Michigan began a series of periodic consumer surveys more than 35 years ago, under the direction of George Katona. The Surveys of Consumers were developed and based on a theoretical view designated as behavioral or psychological economics (Katona, 1951; 1956; 1964; 1975; 1978; 1980). The underlying theory focuses on the human factor in economic affairs. During the past several decades, changes in consumer expenditures for housing and vehicles have played a major role in determining whether the entire economy slipped into recession or moved toward recovery and growth. The consumer, rather than business or the government, has become the dominant actor in shaping the course of the aggregate economy. For the analysis of short-run fluctuations in economic activity, consumer outlays can be roughly categorized as either necessary or discretionary expenditures. The aggregate level of expenditures for necessary budget items is more stable over time and shows only small cyclical variation. Consumer decisions regarding necessary expenditures are frequently governed by need and guided by the force of habit, and in some cases, by contractual requirements-as for example, expenditures on shelter or loan repayments. Discretionary expenditures, in contrast, more frequently involve active decision mak

A comparison of ABS mail and RDD surveys for measuring consumer attitudes

The increasing cost and decreasing coverage of Random Digit Dialing (RDD) landline telephone surveys motivated The Surveys of Consumer Attitudes (SCA) at the University of Michigan to conduct monthly experimental mail survey studies using address-based sampling (ABS). The primary objectives of the experimental studies were to evaluate the feasibility of transitioning the data collection operations from telephone to mail and to investigate differential survey errors between the two modes. Overall mail survey response rates were comparable to the RDD landline survey. Coverage improved using ABS, with more than 20% of the mail responses from non-landline telephone households not covered by the RDD landline telephone surveys. Mail survey respondents from households without landline telephones were more likely to be younger, have lower income, be renters and live in one-person households. There were no apparent measurement or reporting differences between the telephone and mail self-administered modes of data collection. Furthermore, inclusion of non-landline telephone households did not result in any substantial demographic or economic attitude differences between the two approaches.

Overview and Commentary

Business creation is a widespread and basic feature of all market economies. Contributions to job creation, new goods and services, a broader range of work opportunities, enhanced productivity, and economic growth benefit all nations and their citizens. The scope, importance, and contributions of business creation suggest there is considerable merit in understanding the major factors affecting the occurrence and outcomes of entrepreneurial activity. There is no question that personal, environmental, cultural, contextual, and institutional factors have an impact on major aspects of the business creation process. The challenge is in determining which factors have what types of impact at each stage of the business life course.

Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics II: Audio of Presentation

The Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics II offers a nationally-representative database for the United States to offer systematic, reliable, and generalizable data on the business formation process. It includes information on the proportion and characteristics of the adult population attempting to start new businesses, the kinds of activities nascent entrepreneurs undertake during the business start-up process and the proportion and characteristics of the start-up efforts that become infant firms. The PSED II follows a cohort of nascent entrepreneurs for three years beginning in 2005.