Richard Friberg

Price adjustments by a gasoline retail chain

We use daily data to examine price responses in the Swedish gasoline market to changes in the Rotterdam spot price, exchange rates and taxes. The distribution of price adjustments by a leading retail chain, for the period January 1980 to December 1996, is symmetric with no small adjustments. An error correction model shows that, in the short run, prices gradually move towards the long-run equilibrium in response to cost shocks. There is some evidence that, also in the short run, prices are stickier downwards than upwards. Prices respond more rapidly to exchange rate movements than to the spot market price. Our analysis emphasizes that to fully understand price adjustments it is necessary to examine data sets where the sample frequency at least matches that of price adjustments.

Two monies, two markets? Variability and the option to segment

This paper examines the decision to create barriers to arbitrage for a firm selling on two national markets. Sunk costs of market segmentation imply that the option to segment markets is more valuable the greater the variability of purchasing power between markets. One result is that a monetary union may lead to market integration when a fixed exchange rate did not. Extensions examine hysterisis, transport costs and general equilibrium modeling.

Openness and the Exchange Rate Exposure of National Stock Markets

This paper examines the relationship between the valuation of the stock market and an effective exchange rate. We use monthly data on 10 industrialized countries for the period 1973-1996. We find that the more open the economy, the stronger is the (positive) relationship between return on the stock market and the exchange rate. The pattern that we find is consistent with the well documented findings of less than full pass-through of exchange rates onto import prices.

Food Prices and Market Structure in Sweden

This paper examines retail grocery price levels across a large panel of stores in Sweden. We explain price variation across stores by market structure variables to capture differences in competition intensity and a number of store- and region-specific factors. Most of the explained variation in prices can be attributed to store-specific factors such as size and chain affiliation. Overall, the relation between market structure variables and food prices is weak, and effects are small in percentage terms. Nevertheless, higher local concentration of stores, higher regional wholesaler concentration and a lower market share of large stores are all correlated with higher prices.

Common Currency, Common Market?

Does the common currency promote goods market integration within the EMU? We argue that such an effect is likely, but that the mechanism typically proposed – lover costs of arbitrage because of increased price transparency – is likely to be of minor importance. Instead we sketch a duopoly model which stresses that lover possibility of future real exchange rate variability lowers the option value of being able to price discriminate. The euro would promote market integration because it is less valuable for firms to segment markets. In addition we argue that fairness concerns and less risk associated with third party arbitrage may be potentially important.

Ex-Post Merger Review and Divestitures

Divestitures have received little attention in ex-post evaluations of mergers. In partial remedy we simulate the effects of the Carlsberg-Pripps merger in the Swedish beer market and compare the predicted outcomes with those observed ex-post. There are no important price increases following the merger and prices of divested beers fell. Our merger simulations, that are based on a random coefficients logit model, capture these pricing patterns and suggest that the divestitures were important in limiting price increases. Knowledge of the retailers markup rules allows us to discard retailer behavior as an explanation for the pricing patterns.

Price Setting Transactions and the Role of Denominating Currency in FX Markets

This report, commissioned by Sveriges Riksbank, examines the role of currency denomination in international trade transactions. It is divided in two parts. The first part consists of a survey of the price setting and payment practices of a large sample of Swedish exporting firms. The second part analyzes payments data from the Swedish settlement reports from 1999-2002. We examine whether invoicing patterns of Swedish and European companies changed following the creation of the EMU and how the currency denomination of exports differ from that of imports. Finally we consider the possibility that changes in invoicing patterns are correlated with changes in nominal exchange rates. Our main finding is that the same currency to a large extent is used for price setting, invoicing and payment for exports to third parties. We also find that the currency of the customer is the most used and that the euro is replacing the Swedish krona both in transactions with EMU-member countries but outside the EMU. Finally we find some evidence of a weak correlation between aggregate changes in invoicing patterns and changes in the trade weighted exchange rate over the period 1999-2002.

Prices, Profits and Exchange Rate Uncertainty: The Case of Bertrand Competition in Differentiated Goods

This paper studies a simple duopoly model of price competition under exchange rate uncertainty with pre-set prices and differentiated goods. Competitors come from different countries and compete in a foreign market. We study the effect of the price setting currency chosen on expected prices, profits and exchange rate exposure as well as equilibrium choice of price setting currency. For a wide range of parameter values price setting in the importers currency is the dominant strategy. Implications of limited exchange rate pass-through for exchange rate exposure are dicussed. The exchange rate pass-through elasticity is shown to be increasing in own-price effects. Parallels are drawn to the literature on strategic trade policy.

A Brief Background

So much for strategies to manage exchange rate exposure. The largest institutional change to take place on the monetary scene for a very long time is the Economic and Monetary Union in Europe (EMU). At the time of writing, the shape of EMU is still surrounded by great clouds of uncertainty – we still do not know if it will actually come into being with a common currency from 2002 or not. Neither do we know the exact modus operandi of the European Central Bank (ECB). How will discussions go? How much will national governments try to influence monetary policy? There are many questions, the answers to which will only gradually be learned. Needless to say, EMU will change the exchange rate exposure of essentially any European firm; of firms exporting to Europe and of those exposed to the EMU-area through competitors, imported inputs, or some other channel.

The Effect of Retail Distribution on Sales of Alcoholic Beverages

We use monthly sales of all wines, beer, and spirits sold between 2006 and 2011 by Sweden’s retail monopoly on alcohol to estimate the causal effect of retail distribution on market share by volume at the product level. Products are defined at the level of the stock-keeping unit. Two institutional features are key to identifying the causal effect: First, the monopolist uses four levels of retail distribution; a change in retail distribution is therefore associated with a discrete shift in the number of stores that carry a product in a given month. Second, the retailer is legally bound and monitored by the European Union to ensure that it acts in a non-discriminatory manner with all its suppliers. These features allow us to rule out many possible confounding factors in estimating the effect of distribution on sales volume. We find large and statistically significant effects from changes in retail distribution on market share by volume across all levels of retail distribution. The associated volume elastici...