Richard G. Newell

Technological Change and the Environment

Environmental policy discussions increasingly focus on issues related to technological change. This is partly because the environmental consequences of social activity are frequently affected by the rate and direction of technological change, and partly because environmental policy interventions can themselves create constraints and incentives that have significant effects on the path of technological progress. This paper, prepared as a chapter draft for the forthcoming Handbook of Environmental Economics (North-Holland/Elsevier Science), summarizes for environmental economists current thinking on technological change in the broader economics literature, surveys the growing economic literature on the interaction between technology and the environment, and explores the normative implications of these analyses. We begin with a brief overview of the economics of technological change, and then examine three important areas where technology and the environment intersect: the theory and empirical evidence of induced innovation and the related literature on the effects of environmental policy on the creation of new, environmentally friendly technology; the theory and empirics of environmental issues related to technology diffusion; and analyses of the comparative technological impacts of alternative environmental policy instruments. We conclude with suggestions for further research on technological change and the environment.

Environmental Policy and Technological Change

The relationship between technological changeand environmental policy has receivedincreasing attention from scholars and policymakers alike over the past ten years. This ispartly because the environmental impacts ofsocial activity are significantly affected bytechnological change, and partly becauseenvironmental policy interventions themselvescreate new constraints and incentives thataffect the process of technologicaldevelopments. Our central purpose in thisarticle is to provide environmental economistswith a useful guide to research ontechnological change and the analytical toolsthat can be used to explore further theinteraction between technology and theenvironment. In Part 1 of the article, weprovide an overview of analytical frameworksfor investigating the economics oftechnological change, highlighting key issuesfor the researcher. In Part 2, we turn ourattention to theoretical analysis of theeffects of environmental policy ontechnological change, and in Part 3, we focuson issues related to the empirical analysis oftechnology innovation and diffusion. Finally,we conclude in Part 4 with some additionalsuggestions for research.

Discounting the Distant Future: How Much Do Uncertain Rates Increase Valuations?

Costs and benefits in the distant future—such as those associated with global warming, long-lived infrastructure, hazardous and radioactive waste, and biodiversity—often have little value today when measured with conventional discount rates. We demonstrate that when the future path of this conventional rate is uncertain and persistent (i.e., highly correlated over time), the distant future should be discounted at lower rates than suggested by the current rate. We then use two centuries of data on U.S. interest rates to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models (which are indistinguishable based on historical data), we compute the certainty-equivalent rate—that is, the single discount rate that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of discount in the future. Using the random walk model, which we consider more compelling, we find that the certainty-equivalent rate falls from 3% now to 2% after 100 years, to 1% after 200 years, and down to 0.5% after 300 years. The mean-reverting model leads to a certainty-equivalent rate that remains above 3% for the next 200 years, then falls to 2% after 300 years and to 1% after 400 years. If we use these rates to value consequences at horizons of 400 years, the discounted value increases by a factor of 7,000 based on the random walk model and by a factor of 30 based on the mean-reverting model — both relative to conventional discounting. These results are relevant for a wide range of policy questions involving the distant future. Applying the random walk model to the consequences of climate change, for example, we find that inclusion of discount rate uncertainty doubles the expected present value of mitigation benefits. Other applications and alternative beliefs about the random walk–mean-reverting distinction are easily explored with our table of discount factors over time.

Energy, the Environment, and Technological Change

Within the field of environmental economics, the role of technological change has received much attention. The long-term nature of many environmental problems, such as climate change, makes understanding the evolution of technology an important part of projecting future impacts. Moreover, in many cases environmental problems cannot be addressed, or can only be addressed at great cost, using existing technologies. Providing incentives to develop new environmentally-friendly technologies then becomes a focus of environmental policy. This chapter reviews the literature on technological change and the environment. Our goals are to introduce technological change economists to how the lessons of the economics of technological change have been applied in the field of environmental economics, and suggest ways in which scholars of technological change could contribute to the field of environmental economics.

Policy-Induced Technology Adoption: Evidence from the U.S. Lead Phasedown

The theory of environmental regulation suggests that economic instruments, such as taxes and tradable permits, create more effective technology adoption incentives than conventional regulatory standards. We explore this issue for an important industry undergoing technological responses to a dramatic decrease in allowed pollution levels—the petroleum industry’s phasedown of lead in gasoline. Using a panel of refineries from 1971 to 1995, we provide some of the first direct evidence that alternative policies affect the pattern of adoption in expected ways. Importantly, we find that the tradable permit system used during the lead phasedown provided incentives for more efficient technology adoption decisions. Where environmentally appropriate, this suggests that flexible market-based regulation can achieve environmental goals while providing better incentives for technology diffusion.

Cost Heterogeneity and the Potential Savings from Market-Based Policies

Policy makers and analysts are often faced with situations where it is unclear whether market-based instruments hold real promise of reducing costs, relative to conventional uniform standards. We develop analytic expressions that can be employed with modest amounts of information to estimate the potential cost savings associated with market-based policies, with an application to the environmental policy realm. These simple formulae can identify instruments that merit more detailed investigation. We illustrate the use of these results with an application to nitrogen oxides control by electric utilities in the United States.

Balancing Cost and Emissions Certainty: An Allowance Reserve for Cap-and-Trade

On efficiency grounds, the economics community has to date tended to emphasize price-based policies to address climate change—such as taxes or a “safety-valve” price ceiling for cap-and-trade—while environmental advocates have sought a more clear quantitative limit on emissions. This article presents a simple modification to the idea of a safety valve: a quantitative limit that we call the allowance reserve. Importantly, this idea may bridge the gap between competing interests and potentially improve efficiency relative to tax or other price-based policies. The last point highlights the deficiencies in several previous studies of price and quantity controls for climate change that do not adequately capture the dynamic opportunities within a cap-and-trade system for allowance banking, borrowing, and intertemporal arbitrage in response to unfolding information.

Determining Benefits and Costs for Future Generations

The United States and others should consider adopting a different approach to estimating costs and benefits in light of uncertainty. In economic project analysis, the rate at which future benefits and costs are discounted relative to current values often determines whether a project passes the benefit-cost test. This is especially true of projects with long time horizons, such as those to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Whether the benefits of climate policies, which can last for centuries, outweigh the costs, many of which are borne today, is especially sensitive to the rate at which future benefits are discounted. This is also true of other policies, e.g., affecting nuclear waste disposal or the construction of long-lived infrastructure.

Uncertain discount rates in climate policy analysis

Abstract Consequences in the distant future—such as those from climate change—have little value today when discounted using conventional rates. This result contradicts our “gut feeling” about such problems and often leads to ad hoc application of lower rates for valuations over longer horizons—a step facilitated by confusion and disagreement over the correct rate even over short horizons. We review the theory and intuition behind the choice of discount rates now and, importantly, the impact of likely variation in rates in the future. Correlated changes in future rates imply that the distant future should be discounted at much lower rates than suggested by the current rate, thereby raising the value of future consequences—regardless of opinions concerning the current rate. Using historic data to quantity the likely changes and correlation in changes in future rates, we find that future valuations rise by a factor of many thousands at horizons of 300 years or more, almost doubling the expected present value of climate mitigation benefits relative to constant 4% discounting. Ironically, uncertainty about future rates reduces the ratio of valuations based on alternate choices of the current rate.

Evaluating the New Zealand Individual Transferable Quota Market For Fisheries Management

The New Zealand ITQ system is a dynamic institution that has had many refinements since its inception more than 15 years ago. Nonetheless, the basic tenets of the system - setting a total allowable catch and leaving the market to determine the most profitable allocation of fishing effort - have remained intact. This paper assesses the New Zealand system to identify areas of success and/or possible improvement or expansion within it. The reasons for doing so are to highlight beneficial features and to identify features of the New Zealand ITQ system that are relevant to other potential tradable permit markets. Beneficial features include simple standardized rules for quota definition and trading across species and areas; very few restrictions on quota trading and holding; relative stability in the rules over time; and low levels of government involvement in the trading process. We find evidence that supports the assertion that fishers behave in a reasonably rational fashion and that the markets are relatively efficient. We do not find major changes in participation in these fisheries as a result of the system. We find evidence that suggests that the ITQ system is improving the profitability of fisheries in New Zealand. In general the evidence thus far suggests that the market is operating in a reasonably efficient manner and is providing significant economic gains. These factors suggest that New Zealand would want to have non-economic justifications for any significant changes to the system.