Richard Gunu

Ovarian cancer screening and mortality in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a randomised controlled trial

Summary Background Ovarian cancer has a poor prognosis, with just 40% of patients surviving 5 years. We designed this trial to establish the effect of early detection by screening on ovarian cancer mortality. Methods In this randomised controlled trial, we recruited postmenopausal women aged 50–74 years from 13 centres in National Health Service Trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Exclusion criteria were previous bilateral oophorectomy or ovarian malignancy, increased risk of familial ovarian cancer, and active non-ovarian malignancy. The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants in blocks of 32 using computer-generated random numbers to annual multimodal screening (MMS) with serum CA125 interpreted with use of the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm, annual transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS), or no screening, in a 1:1:2 ratio. The primary outcome was death due to ovarian cancer by Dec 31, 2014, comparing MMS and USS separately with no screening, ascertained by an outcomes committee masked to randomisation group. All analyses were by modified intention to screen, excluding the small number of women we discovered after randomisation to have a bilateral oophorectomy, have ovarian cancer, or had exited the registry before recruitment. Investigators and participants were aware of screening type. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032. Findings Between June 1, 2001, and Oct 21, 2005, we randomly allocated 202 638 women: 50 640 (25·0%) to MMS, 50 639 (25·0%) to USS, and 101 359 (50·0%) to no screening. 202 546 (>99·9%) women were eligible for analysis: 50 624 (>99·9%) women in the MMS group, 50 623 (>99·9%) in the USS group, and 101 299 (>99·9%) in the no screening group. Screening ended on Dec 31, 2011, and included 345 570 MMS and 327 775 USS annual screening episodes. At a median follow-up of 11·1 years (IQR 10·0–12·0), we diagnosed ovarian cancer in 1282 (0·6%) women: 338 (0·7%) in the MMS group, 314 (0·6%) in the USS group, and 630 (0·6%) in the no screening group. Of these women, 148 (0·29%) women in the MMS group, 154 (0·30%) in the USS group, and 347 (0·34%) in the no screening group had died of ovarian cancer. The primary analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model gave a mortality reduction over years 0–14 of 15% (95% CI −3 to 30; p=0·10) with MMS and 11% (−7 to 27; p=0·21) with USS. The Royston-Parmar flexible parametric model showed that in the MMS group, this mortality effect was made up of 8% (−20 to 31) in years 0–7 and 23% (1–46) in years 7–14, and in the USS group, of 2% (−27 to 26) in years 0–7 and 21% (−2 to 42) in years 7–14. A prespecified analysis of death from ovarian cancer of MMS versus no screening with exclusion of prevalent cases showed significantly different death rates (p=0·021), with an overall average mortality reduction of 20% (−2 to 40) and a reduction of 8% (−27 to 43) in years 0–7 and 28% (−3 to 49) in years 7–14 in favour of MMS. Interpretation Although the mortality reduction was not significant in the primary analysis, we noted a significant mortality reduction with MMS when prevalent cases were excluded. We noted encouraging evidence of a mortality reduction in years 7–14, but further follow-up is needed before firm conclusions can be reached on the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of ovarian cancer screening. Funding Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, Department of Health, The Eve Appeal.

Risk Algorithm Using Serial Biomarker Measurements Doubles the Number of Screen-Detected Cancers Compared With a Single-Threshold Rule in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening

Purpose Cancer screening strategies have commonly adopted single-biomarker thresholds to identify abnormality. We investigated the impact of serial biomarker change interpreted through a risk algorithm on cancer detection rates. Patients and Methods In the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, 46,237 women, age 50 years or older underwent incidence screening by using the multimodal strategy (MMS) in which annual serum cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) was interpreted with the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA). Women were triaged by the ROCA: normal risk, returned to annual screening; intermediate risk, repeat CA-125; and elevated risk, repeat CA-125 and transvaginal ultrasound. Women with persistently increased risk were clinically evaluated. All participants were followed through national cancer and/or death registries. Performance characteristics of a single-threshold rule and the ROCA were compared by using receiver operating characteristic curves. Results After 296,911 women-years of annual incidence screening, 640 women underwent surgery. Of those, 133 had primary invasive epithelial ovarian or tubal cancers (iEOCs). In all, 22 interval iEOCs occurred within 1 year of screening, of which one was detected by ROCA but was managed conservatively after clinical assessment. The sensitivity and specificity of MMS for detection of iEOCs were 85.8% (95% CI, 79.3% to 90.9%) and 99.8% (95% CI, 99.8% to 99.8%), respectively, with 4.8 surgeries per iEOC. ROCA alone detected 87.1% (135 of 155) of the iEOCs. Using fixed CA-125 cutoffs at the last annual screen of more than 35, more than 30, and more than 22 U/mL would have identified 41.3% (64 of 155), 48.4% (75 of 155), and 66.5% (103 of 155), respectively. The area under the curve for ROCA (0.915) was significantly (P = .0027) higher than that for a single-threshold rule (0.869). Conclusion Screening by using ROCA doubled the number of screen-detected iEOCs compared with a fixed cutoff. In the context of cancer screening, reliance on predefined single-threshold rules may result in biomarkers of value being discarded.

Serum CA19-9 Is Significantly Upregulated up to 2 Years before Diagnosis with Pancreatic Cancer: Implications for Early Disease Detection

Purpose: Biomarkers for the early detection of pancreatic cancer are urgently needed. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate whether increased levels of serum CA19-9, CA125, CEACAM1, and REG3A are present before clinical presentation of pancreatic cancer and to assess the performance of combined markers for early detection and prognosis. Experimental Design: This nested case–control study within the UKCTOCS included 118 single and 143 serial serum samples from 154 postmenopausal women who were subsequently diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and 304 matched noncancer controls. Samples were split randomly into independent training and test sets. CA19-9, CA125, CEACAM1, and REG3A were measured using ELISA and/or CLIA. Performance of markers to detect cancers at different times before diagnosis and for prognosis was evaluated. Results: At 95% specificity, CA19-9 (>37 U/mL) had a sensitivity of 68% up to 1 year, and 53% up to 2 years before diagnosis. Combining CA19-9 and CA125 improved sensitivity as CA125 was elevated (>30 U/mL) in approximately 20% of CA19-9–negative cases. CEACAM1 and REG3A were late markers adding little in combined models. Average lead times of 20 to 23 months were estimated for test-positive cases. Prediagnostic levels of CA19-9 and CA125 were associated with poor overall survival (HR, 2.69 and 3.15, respectively). Conclusions: CA19-9 and CA125 have encouraging sensitivity for detecting preclinical pancreatic cancer, and both markers can be used as prognostic tools. This work challenges the prevailing view that CA19-9 is upregulated late in the course of pancreatic cancer development. Clin Cancer Res; 21(3); 622–31. ©2014 AACR.

Evidence of stage shift in women diagnosed with ovarian cancer during phase II of the United Kingdom familial ovarian cancer screening study

Purpose To establish the performance of screening with serum cancer antigen 125 (CA-125), interpreted using the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), and transvaginal sonography (TVS) for women at high risk of ovarian cancer (OC) or fallopian tube cancer (FTC). Patients and Methods Women whose estimated lifetime risk of OC/FTC was ≥ 10% were recruited at 42 centers in the United Kingdom and underwent ROCA screening every 4 months. TVS occurred annually if ROCA results were normal or within 2 months of an abnormal ROCA result. Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) was encouraged throughout the study. Participants were observed via cancer registries, questionnaires, and notification by centers. Performance was calculated after censoring 365 days after prior screen, with modeling of occult cancers detected at RRSO. Results Between June 14, 2007, and May 15, 2012, 4,348 women underwent 13,728 women-years of screening. The median follow-up time was 4.8 years. Nineteen patients were diagnosed with invasive OC/FTC within 1 year of prior screening (13 diagnoses were screen-detected and six were occult at RRSO). No symptomatic interval cancers occurred. Ten (52.6%) of the total 19 diagnoses were stage I to II OC/FTC (CI, 28.9% to 75.6%). Of the 13 screen-detected cancers, five (38.5%) were stage I to II (CI, 13.9% to 68.4%). Of the six occult cancers, five (83.3%) were stage I to II (CI, 35.9% to 99.6%). Modeled sensitivity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for OC/FTC detection within 1 year were 94.7% (CI, 74.0% to 99.9%), 10.8% (6.5% to 16.5%), and 100% (CI, 100% to 100%), respectively. Seven (36.8%) of the 19 cancers diagnosed < 1 year after prior screen were stage IIIb to IV (CI, 16.3% to 61.6%) compared with 17 (94.4%) of 18 cancers diagnosed > 1 year after screening ended (CI, 72.7% to 99.9%; P < .001). Eighteen (94.8%) of 19 cancers diagnosed < 1 year after prior screen had zero residual disease (with lower surgical complexity, P = .16) (CI, 74.0% to 99.9%) compared with 13 (72.2%) of 18 cancers subsequently diagnosed (CI, 46.5% to 90.3%; P = .09). Conclusion ROCA-based screening is an option for women at high risk of OC/FTC who defer or decline RRSO, given its high sensitivity and significant stage shift. However, it remains unknown whether this strategy would improve survival in screened high-risk women.

Association of serum sex steroid receptor bioactivity and sex steroid hormones with breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women

Postmenopausal women with elevated serum sex steroids have an increased risk of breast cancer. Most of this risk is believed to be exerted through binding of the sex steroids to their receptors. For the first time, we investigate the association of estrogen receptor (ER) and androgen receptor (AR) serum bioactivity (SB) in addition to hormone levels in samples from women with breast cancer collected before diagnosis. Two hundred postmenopausal women participating in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening who developed ER-positive breast cancer 0.6–5 years after sample donation were identified and matched to 400 controls. ER and AR bioassays were used to measure ERα, ERβ, and AR SB. Androgen and estrogen levels were measured with immunoassays. Subjects were classified according to quintiles of the respective marker among controls and the associations between SB and hormones with breast cancer risk were determined by logistic regression analysis. ERα and ERβ SB were significantly higher before diagnosis compared with controls, while estrogens showed no difference. Women had a twofold increased breast cancer risk if ERα SB (odds ratio (OR), 2.114; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.050–4.425; P=0.040) was in the top quintile >2 years before diagnosis or estrone (OR, 2.205; 95% CI, 1.104–4.586; P=0.029) was in the top quintile <2 years before diagnosis. AR showed no significant association with breast cancer while androstenedione (OR, 3.187; 95% CI, 1.738–6.044; P=0.0003) and testosterone (OR, 2.145; 95% CI, 1.256–3.712; P=0.006) were significantly higher compared with controls and showed a strong association with an almost threefold increased breast cancer risk independent of time to diagnosis. This study provides further evidence on the association of androgens and estrogens with breast cancer. In addition, it reports that high ER but not AR SB is associated with increased breast risk >2 years before diagnosis.

Evaluation of serum CEA, CYFRA21-1 and CA125 for the early detection of colorectal cancer using longitudinal preclinical samples

Background:Blood-borne biomarkers for early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) could markedly increase screening uptake. The aim of this study was to evaluate serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), CYFRA21-1 and CA125 for the early detection of CRC in an asymptomatic cohort.Methods:This nested case–control study within UKCTOCS used 381 serial serum samples from 40 women subsequently diagnosed with CRC, 20 women subsequently diagnosed with benign disease and 40 matched non-cancer controls with three to four samples per subject taken annually up to 4 years before diagnosis. CEA, CYFRA21-1 and CA125 were measured using validated assays and performance of markers evaluated for different pre-diagnosis time groups.Results:CEA levels increased towards diagnosis in a third of all cases (half of late-stage cases), whereas longitudinal profiles were static in both benign and non-cancer controls. At a threshold of >5 ng ml−1 the sensitivities for detecting CRC up to 1 and 4 years before clinical presentation were 25% and 13%, respectively, at 95% specificity. At a threshold of >2.5 ng ml−1, sensitivities were 57.5% and 38.4%, respectively, with specificities of 81% and 83.5%. CYFRA21-1 and CA125 had no utility as screening markers and did not enhance CEA performance when used in combination. CEA gave average lead times of 17–24 months for test-positive cases.Conclusions:CEA is elevated in a significant proportion of individuals with preclinical CRC, but would not be useful alone as a screening tool. This work sets a baseline from which to develop panels of biomarkers which combine CEA for improved early detection of CRC.

Ethnicity or environment: effects of migration on ovarian reserve among Bangladeshi women in the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVE To assess whether the quality of early childhood environments among different groups of Bangladeshi women, including migrants to the United Kingdom (UK), contributes to variation in ovarian reserve and the rate of reproductive aging in later life. DESIGN Cross-sectional study. SETTING Not applicable. PATIENT(S) A total of 179 healthy women volunteers aged 35-59 years were divided into four groups: [1] 36 Bangladeshis living in Sylhet, Bangladesh; [2] 53 Bangladeshis who migrated to the UK as adults; [3] 40 Bangladeshis who migrated to the UK as children aged 0-16 years; and [4] a reference group of 50 women of European origin living in London. INTERVENTION(S) None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S) Levels of serum antimüllerian hormone, inhibin B, FSH, and E2, and anthropometrics derived from biomarkers; reproductive, demographic, and health variables from structured questionnaires. RESULT(S) Bangladeshi migrants who moved to the UK as children and European women had a highly significantly larger, age-related ovarian reserve compared with migrant Bangladeshis who had moved to the UK as adults or Bangladeshi women still living in Bangladesh. There were no other significant covariates in the model aside from age and menopausal status. CONCLUSION(S) The study points to the importance of childhood development in considering variation in ovarian reserve across different ethnic groups. Clinical studies and research in assisted reproductive technology have emphasized the role of genes or race in determining inter-population variation in ovarian reserve. Early life developmental factors should be given due consideration when evaluating inter-group differences in response to assisted reproductive technology.

Sex hormone measurements using mass spectrometry and sensitive extraction radioimmunoassay and risk of estrogen receptor negative and positive breast cancer: Case control study in UK Collaborative Cancer Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).

INTRODUCTION Associations of endogenous sex hormone levels and all as well as estrogen-receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers are well described. However, studies investigating their association with ER-negative tumours are limited and none use accurate assays such as mass spectrometry. METHODS Within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), a nested case-control study was undertaken of postmenopausal-women who developed ER-negative (n=92) or ER-positive (n=205) breast cancer after sample donation and 297 (1:1) age-matched controls. Androgens (testosterone and androstenedione) were measured using mass spectrometry and estradiol by extraction radioimmunoassay (RIA). Bioavailable estradiol and testosterone were calculated using the total hormone level and the sex hormone-binding globulin concentration. Subjects were classified according to the quartile range among controls. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds-ratio (OR) and 95% confidence-intervals (CI) of the associations between two factors and breast cancer risk. A separate analysis was done by stratifying the women based on whether they provided their samples less than or more than 2years before diagnosis. RESULTS Estradiol and free estradiol were significantly higher prior to diagnosis of ER-negative breast cancer compared with controls while androgens and SHBG did not show any difference. Estradiol, free estradiol, free testosterone and SHBG were significantly higher before ER-positive breast cancer diagnosis compared with controls. Women had a twofold increased ER-negative breast cancer risk if estradiol and free estradiol were in the top quartile but not androgens (testosterone and androstenedione) or SHBG. These associations remained significant only when samples closer (median 1.1y before) to diagnosis were analyzed rather than farther from diagnosis (median 2.9y before). Women had a 2.34 (95% CI: 1.21-4.61, p=0.001), 2.21 (95% CI: 1.14-4.38, p=0.001), 2 (95% CI: 1.05-3.89, p=0.005) fold increased ER-positive breast cancer risk if estradiol, free estradiol and free testosterone respectively were in the top quartile. These associations remained significant regardless of whether the samples were collected less than or more than 2years prior to diagnosis. CONCLUSION In postmenopausal women increased estrogens but not androgens are associated with ER-negative breast cancer. Previously reported associations of estradiol and free testosterone with ER-positive breast cancer are confirmed. The use of mass spectrometry and sensitive RIA add validity to these findings.