Richard H. Moss

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth’s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

Hell and High Water: Practice-Relevant Adaptation Science

Adaptation requires science that analyzes decisions, identifies vulnerabilities, improves foresight, and develops options. Informing the extensive preparations needed to manage climate risks, avoid damages, and realize emerging opportunities is a grand challenge for climate change science. U.S. President Obama underscored the need for this research when he made climate preparedness a pillar of his climate policy. Adaptation improves preparedness and is one of two broad and increasingly important strategies (along with mitigation) for climate risk management. Adaptation is required in virtually all sectors of the economy and regions of the globe, for both built and natural systems (1).

Climate Model Intercomparisons: Preparing for the Next Phase

Since 1995, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has coordinated climate model experiments involving multiple international modeling teams. Through CMIP, climate modelers and scientists from around the world have analyzed and compared state-of-the-art climate model simulations to gain insights into the processes, mechanisms, and consequences of climate variability and climate change. This has led to a better understanding of past, present, and future climate, and CMIP model experiments have routinely been the basis for future climate change assessments made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [e.g., IPCC, 2013, and references therein].

Towards a resilience indicator framework for making climate-change adaptation decisions

Activities are already underway within the development community to improve climate-change adaptation decision making. In these and related efforts, a focus on building resilience is an important objective, one that resonates with development objectives. Compiling and applying indicators will help development practitioners consider resilience in projects, plans, and decision making. Exactly how to do this is a challenging, but important task. Drawing on diverse methods in the literature, this paper identifies factors important to understanding the evolution of resilience over time and space, and suggests a framework for developing indicators that analysts might select as useful for particular places or sectors. The paper lays the groundwork for an assessment framework that can make future development and adaptation choices more resilient. The framework is intended as a starting point for wider discussions of factors that contribute to building resilience and thus provide the basis to develop a toolkit of metrics and approaches. These discussions will need to bridge research on climate-change adaptation and resilience with practice.

Avoiding ‘dangerous’ interference in the climate system: The roles of values, science and policy

Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) held a workshop in Fortaleza, Brazil (October 1994), to help provide the scientific underpinnings for the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): “… stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interferences with the climate system …”. Scientists can assist in helping to identify exposureeffect relationships between changes in climate variables and the structure or function of ecosystems or socioeconomic sectors, and how these relationships might vary by ecosystem and location. But determination of ‘dangerous’ is not solely a scientific process: it involves judgments about what attributes of ecosystems and human activities are most highly valued and what level of change can be considered critical. In the future, further interaction is needed between the policy and scientific communities to help policymakers develop a better understanding of the complexities of the climate system and to assure that the scientific community provides information that is useful to evaluating alternative responses to climate change.

Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment: Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies.

Aspirations and common tensions: larger lessons from the third US national climate assessment

The Third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was produced by experts in response to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990. Based on lessons learned from previous domestic and international assessments, the NCA3 was designed to speak to a broad public and inform the concerns of policy- and decision-makers at different scales. The NCA3 was also intended to be the first step in an ongoing assessment process that would build the nation’s capacity to respond to climate change. This concluding paper draws larger lessons from the insights gained throughout the assessment process that are of significance to future US and international assessment designers. We bring attention to process and products delivered, communication and engagement efforts, and how they contributed to the sustained assessment. Based on areas where expectations were exceeded or not fully met, we address four common tensions that all assessment designers must confront and manage: between (1) core assessment ingredients (knowledge base, institutional set-up, principled process, and the people involved), (2) national scope and subnational adaptive management information needs, (3) scope, complexity, and manageability, and (4) deliberate evaluation and ongoing learning approaches. Managing these tensions, amidst the social and political contexts in which assessments are conducted, is critical to ensure that assessments are feasible and productive, while its outcomes are perceived as credible, salient, and legitimate.

Definition, Capabilities, and Components of a Terrestrial Carbon Monitoring System

Research efforts for effectively and consistently monitoring terrestrial carbon are increasing in number. As such, there is a need to define carbon monitoring and how it relates to carbon cycle science and carbon management. There is also a need to identify capabilities of a carbon monitoring system and the system components needed to develop the capabilities. Capabilities that enable the effective application of a carbon monitoring system for monitoring and management purposes may include: reconciling carbon stocks and fluxes, developing consistency across spatial and temporal scales, tracking horizontal movement of carbon, attribution of emissions to originating sources, cross-sectoral accounting, uncertainty quantification, redundancy and policy relevance. Focused research is needed to integrate these capabilities for sustained estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes. Additionally, if monitoring is intended to inform management decisions, management priorities should be considered prior to development of a monitoring system.

Editorial introduction to the special issue on Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation

Projections of future climate change, associated impacts and possible responses to cope with their effects are riddled with uncertainties, creating real and perceived barriers at all levels of policyand decision-making. There is uncertainty about observed climate changes and their past effects on natural and human systems. There is uncertainty about the current state of the environment and its resilience to changes. There is even larger uncertainty about future changes in the climate system and their potential consequences on the environment and human societies. In many contexts, uncertainty is interpreted as a deficit of knowledge. However, in the absence of perfect knowledge, decisions are made every day, everywhere. Planning for climate change adaptation is a relatively new challenge, but decision-makers across sectors and scales are facing growing demand for adaptation-related decisions (such as strategies, measures and investments) that need to be made now or in the future. These are expected to protect human and natural systems against potential vulnerabilities or increase their resilience, while still allowing for sustainable development. This means taking into account an immense and Climatic Change (2015) 132:369–372 DOI 10.1007/s10584-015-1444-9

Enhancing Participation in the U.S. Global Change Research Program

The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a collection of 13 Federal entities charged by law to assist the United States and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change. As the understanding of global change has evolved over the past decades and as demand for scientific information on global change has increased, the USGCRP has increasingly focused on research that can inform decisions to cope with current climate variability and change, to reduce the magnitude of future changes, and to prepare for changes projected over coming decades. Overall, the current breadth and depth of research in these agencies is insufficient to meet the countrys needs, particularly to support decision makers. This report provides a rationale for evaluating current program membership and capabilities and identifying potential new agencies and departments in the hopes that these changes will enable the program to more effectively inform the public and prepare for the future. It also offers actionable recommendations for adjustments to the methods and procedures that will allow the program to better meet its stated goals.