Richard J. Cebula

Interstate Migration and the Tiebout Hypothesis: An Analysis According to Race, Sex and Age

Abstract This article examines the impact on interstate net migration of differential state and local property tax and transfer policies in the United States by race, age and sex for 1965–70. The results offer considerable support to the Tiebout hypothesis that the consumer-voter moves to that area which best satisfies his preferences for public goods.

An Empirical Note on the Tiebout-Tullock Hypothesis

I. Introduction, 705. — II. The model, 707. — III. Empirical results, 708. — IV. Conclusion, 710.

An Empirical Note on the Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on Ex Ante Real Long-Term Interest Rates, 1973-1995

This study investigates the impact of the U.S. federal budget deficit on ex ante real long-term interest rates in the U.S. using quarterly data for the period from 1973 through 1995. The study adopts a loanable funds model. Two stage least squares estimates reveal that the federal budget deficit acted to elevate the ex ante real long term interest rate on ten year U.S. Treasury notes, Moodys Aaa-rated corporate bonds, and Moodys Baa-rated corporate bonds.

Differentials and Indeterminacy in Wage Rate Analysis: An Empirical Note.

Examination of the relationship between net population migration and wage levels in the United States. Number of migrants; Rates of net migration; Possibility for error in the study. (Abstract copyright EBSCO.)

Federal budget deficits, interest rates, and international capital flows: A further note

Abstract This note empirically examines the impact of federal budget deficits on the nominal long term rate of interest in the United States. The analysis adopts a loanable funds model that includes net international capital inflows. The analysis allows for endogeneity of the capital flows variable and also allows for the Federal Reserve policy shift of October,1979–October, 1982. The instrumental variables estimate finds that federal deficits do raise the long term nominal rate of interest, despite the effects of capital flows, which dampen the interest rate impact of the federal deficit.

Impact of budget deficits on ex post real long-term interest rates

The study investigates the impact of budget deficits on ex post real long-term interest rates over the 1973–1995 period, thereby addressing an interest rate measure and time period, i.e. beyond the mid-to late-1980s, that have received only limited attention in the literature. The instrumented variables (IV) estimate provides strong evidence that budget deficits do raise the long-term real ex post rate of interest.

The impact of living costs on geographic mobility

Abstract During recent years, a small number of studies have generated indices of geographically comparable living costs for states. The first of these was by W. McMahon and C. Melton [6], who generated an index for 1977. G. Fournier and D. Rasmussen [3] then generated an index for 1980. The most recent, and by far the most sophisticated analysis and index construction, is by W. McMahon [5]. The purpose of this paper is to use the W.McMahon [5] data to investigate the impact of geographic living-cost differentials upon geographic mobility in the United States. In this study, we focus primarily (although not exclusively) upon the elderly. The reason for this focus is simple. First, the migration decision calculus for the elderly is likely to be somewhat simpler than it is for younger segments of the population. This largely reflects the fact that the labor force participation rate among the elderly is markedly lower than for younger age groups; as a result of this fact, labor market considerations per se are likely on average to not be of major significance in the elderly migration decision. Consequently, by essentially being able to ignore the labor market, we are able to more clearly focus in on the impact that living cost differentials per se presumably play in the elderly migration decision. Furthermore, the effective omission of an elaborate set of labor market variables diminishes the probability of potential econometric problems (such as multicollinearity). Next, since the elderly are a growing segment of the population, it becomes increasingly important for us to be able to understand and better forecast their migration (relocation) patterns.

A Note on Federal Budget Deficits and the Term Structure of Real Interest Rates in the United States

Using quarterly data and dealing with the ex post real rates on three month U.S. Treasury bills and 20 year U.S. Treasury bonds, this empirical note has estimated an IS-LM based regression by 2SLS. The results indicate that the budget deficit raises the slope of the yield curve. Furthermore, to the extent that private sector capital formation is sensitive to longer term real interest rates in the United States, federal budget deficits lead to crowding out of private investment and hence to slower economic growth over the longer run.

Income Tax Evasion Revisited: The Impact of Interest Rate Yields on Tax-Free Municipal Bonds

This study empirically investigates a hypothesis that the degree of aggregate federal personal income tax evasion may be influenced by the interest rate yield on high-grade municipal bonds. After allowing for the impacts of a variety of factors that typically have been inferred to influence income tax evasion, it is found that the higher the tax-free interest rate yield on high-grade municipal bonds relative to the taxable yield on 10-year Treasury notes, the lower the aggregate degree of federal personal income tax evasion.

Net interstate population growth rates and the Tiebout-Tullock hypothesis: New empirical evidence, 1990–2000

This study empirically investigates the Tiebout-Tullock hypothesis as it might have applied to the pattern of net interstate population growth rates over the period 1990–2000. For the study period, it appears that the net state population growth rate has been an increasing function of the ratio of the total state plus local government outlays on public education in a state to that states total state plus local government tax burden. Additional variables in the study, including the previous-period median single-family housing-price inflation rate, a measure of previous-period growth in real personal income per capita and certain quality-of-life variables, also prove to be significant determinants of the net population growth rate in a state. In this context, it appears that, for the study period, the Tiebout-Tullock hypothesis played a significant role in determining state net population growth rates.