Richard J. Orton

Computational modelling of the receptor-tyrosine-kinase-activated MAPK pathway

The MAPK (mitogen-activated protein kinase) pathway is one of the most important and intensively studied signalling pathways. It is at the heart of a molecular-signalling network that governs the growth, proliferation, differentiation and survival of many, if not all, cell types. It is de-regulated in various diseases, ranging from cancer to immunological, inflammatory and degenerative syndromes, and thus represents an important drug target. Over recent years, the computational or mathematical modelling of biological systems has become increasingly valuable, and there is now a wide variety of mathematical models of the MAPK pathway which have led to some novel insights and predictions as to how this system functions. In the present review we give an overview of the processes involved in modelling a biological system using the popular approach of ordinary differential equations. Focusing on the MAPK pathway, we introduce the features and functions of the pathway itself before comparing the available models and describing what new biological insights they have led to.

Cell fate decisions are specified by the dynamic ERK interactome.

Extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) controls fundamental cellular functions, including cell fate decisions. In PC12, cells shifting ERK activation from transient to sustained induces neuronal differentiation. As ERK associates with both regulators and effectors, we hypothesized that the mechanisms underlying the switch could be revealed by assessing the dynamic changes in ERK-interacting proteins that specifically occur under differentiation conditions. Using quantitative proteomics, we identified 284 ERK-interacting proteins. Upon induction of differentiation, 60 proteins changed their binding to ERK, including many proteins that were not known to participate in differentiation. We functionally characterized a subset, showing that they regulate the pathway at several levels and by different mechanisms, including signal duration, ERK localization, feedback, crosstalk with the Akt pathway and differential interaction and phosphorylation of transcription factors. Integrating these data with a mathematical model confirmed that ERK dynamics and differentiation are regulated by distributed control mechanisms rather than by a single master switch.

The Mammalian MAPK/ERK Pathway Exhibits Properties of a Negative Feedback Amplifier

Analysis of ERK pathway circuitry suggests appropriate targets for inhibition, providing a guide for drug development. Biological Circuits Inform Drug Development The mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway involves a three-tiered kinase module, which amplifies the signal. Many cells also have negative feedback loops from the last kinase in the module to various points upstream in the pathway. Sturm et al. showed that, with negative feedback loops, the MAPK module results in a system like that of a negative feedback amplifier (NFA), which is an engineering design that smoothens the output to changes in input and makes a system robust to change. These NFA-like properties may explain why some cells are sensitive to inhibition of the second kinase in the cascade (they lack feedback loops), whereas other cells are resistant to inhibition at this point (their feedback loops are intact). These results also have implications for drug development, because inhibitors that target components that are outside the NFA are more effective at inhibiting the pathway. Three-tiered kinase modules, such as the Raf–MEK (mitogen-activated or extracellular signal–regulated protein kinase kinase)–ERK (extracellular signal–regulated kinase) mitogen-activated protein kinase pathway, are widespread in biology, suggesting that this structure conveys evolutionarily advantageous properties. We show that the three-tiered kinase amplifier module combined with negative feedback recapitulates the design principles of a negative feedback amplifier (NFA), which is used in electronic circuits to confer robustness, output stabilization, and linearization of nonlinear signal amplification. We used mathematical modeling and experimental validation to demonstrate that the ERK pathway has properties of an NFA that (i) converts intrinsic switch-like activation kinetics into graded linear responses, (ii) conveys robustness to changes in rates of reactions within the NFA module, and (iii) stabilizes outputs in response to drug-induced perturbations of the amplifier. These properties determine biological behavior, including activation kinetics and the response to drugs.

Consensus statement: Virus taxonomy in the age of metagenomics

The number and diversity of viral sequences that are identified in metagenomic data far exceeds that of experimentally characterized virus isolates. In a recent workshop, a panel of experts discussed the proposal that, with appropriate quality control, viruses that are known only from metagenomic data can, and should be, incorporated into the official classification scheme of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV). Although a taxonomy that is based on metagenomic sequence data alone represents a substantial departure from the traditional reliance on phenotypic properties, the development of a robust framework for sequence-based virus taxonomy is indispensable for the comprehensive characterization of the global virome. In this Consensus Statement article, we consider the rationale for why metagenomic sequence data should, and how it can, be incorporated into the ICTV taxonomy, and present proposals that have been endorsed by the Executive Committee of the ICTV.

Late Ebola virus relapse causing meningoencephalitis: a case report

Summary Background There are thousands of survivors of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in west Africa. Ebola virus can persist in survivors for months in immune-privileged sites; however, viral relapse causing life-threatening and potentially transmissible disease has not been described. We report a case of late relapse in a patient who had been treated for severe Ebola virus disease with high viral load (peak cycle threshold value 13·2). Methods A 39-year-old female nurse from Scotland, who had assisted the humanitarian effort in Sierra Leone, had received intensive supportive treatment and experimental antiviral therapies, and had been discharged with undetectable Ebola virus RNA in peripheral blood. The patient was readmitted to hospital 9 months after discharge with symptoms of acute meningitis, and was found to have Ebola virus in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). She was treated with supportive therapy and experimental antiviral drug GS-5734 (Gilead Sciences, San Francisco, Foster City, CA, USA). We monitored Ebola virus RNA in CSF and plasma, and sequenced the viral genome using an unbiased metagenomic approach. Findings On admission, reverse transcriptase PCR identified Ebola virus RNA at a higher level in CSF (cycle threshold value 23·7) than plasma (31·3); infectious virus was only recovered from CSF. The patient developed progressive meningoencephalitis with cranial neuropathies and radiculopathy. Clinical recovery was associated with addition of high-dose corticosteroids during GS-5734 treatment. CSF Ebola virus RNA slowly declined and was undetectable following 14 days of treatment with GS-5734. Sequencing of plasma and CSF viral genome revealed only two non-coding changes compared with the original infecting virus. Interpretation Our report shows that previously unanticipated, late, severe relapses of Ebola virus can occur, in this case in the CNS. This finding fundamentally redefines what is known about the natural history of Ebola virus infection. Vigilance should be maintained in the thousands of Ebola survivors for cases of relapsed infection. The potential for these cases to initiate new transmission chains is a serious public health concern. Funding Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust.

Whole Genome Sequencing Reveals Local Transmission Patterns of Mycobacterium bovis in Sympatric Cattle and Badger Populations

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) technology holds great promise as a tool for the forensic epidemiology of bacterial pathogens. It is likely to be particularly useful for studying the transmission dynamics of an observed epidemic involving a largely unsampled ‘reservoir’ host, as for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in British and Irish cattle and badgers. BTB is caused by Mycobacterium bovis, a member of the M. tuberculosis complex that also includes the aetiological agent for human TB. In this study, we identified a spatio-temporally linked group of 26 cattle and 4 badgers infected with the same Variable Number Tandem Repeat (VNTR) type of M. bovis. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between sequences identified differences that were consistent with bacterial lineages being persistent on or near farms for several years, despite multiple clear whole herd tests in the interim. Comparing WGS data to mathematical models showed good correlations between genetic divergence and spatial distance, but poor correspondence to the network of cattle movements or within-herd contacts. Badger isolates showed between zero and four SNP differences from the nearest cattle isolate, providing evidence for recent transmissions between the two hosts. This is the first direct genetic evidence of M. bovis persistence on farms over multiple outbreaks with a continued, ongoing interaction with local badgers. However, despite unprecedented resolution, directionality of transmission cannot be inferred at this stage. Despite the often notoriously long timescales between time of infection and time of sampling for TB, our results suggest that WGS data alone can provide insights into TB epidemiology even where detailed contact data are not available, and that more extensive sampling and analysis will allow for quantification of the extent and direction of transmission between cattle and badgers.

Analysis of signalling pathways using continuous time markov chains

We describe a quantitative modelling and analysis approach for signal transduction networks. We illustrate the approach with an example, the RKIP inhibited ERK pathway [CSK+03]. Our models are high level descriptions of continuous time Markov chains: proteins are modelled by synchronous processes and reactions by transitions. Concentrations are modelled by discrete, abstract quantities. The main advantage of our approach is that using a (continuous time) stochastic logic and the PRISM model checker, we can perform quantitative analysis such as what is the probability that if a concentration reaches a certain level, it will remain at that level thereafter? or how does varying a given reaction rate affect that probability? We also perform standard simulations and compare our results with a traditional ordinary differential equation model. An interesting result is that for the example pathway, only a small number of discrete data values is required to render the simulations practically indistinguishable.

A structured approach for the engineering of biochemical network models, illustrated for signalling pathways

Quantitative models of biochemical networks (signal transduction cascades, metabolic pathways, gene regulatory circuits) are a central component of modern systems biology. Building and managing these complex models is a major challenge that can benefit from the application of formal methods adopted from theoretical computing science. Here we provide a general introduction to the field of formal modelling, which emphasizes the intuitive biochemical basis of the modelling process, but is also accessible for an audience with a background in computing science and/or model engineering. We show how signal transduction cascades can be modelled in a modular fashion, using both a qualitative approach--qualitative Petri nets, and quantitative approaches--continuous Petri nets and ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We review the major elementary building blocks of a cellular signalling model, discuss which critical design decisions have to be made during model building, and present a number of novel computational tools that can help to explore alternative modular models in an easy and intuitive manner. These tools, which are based on Petri net theory, offer convenient ways of composing hierarchical ODE models, and permit a qualitative analysis of their behaviour. We illustrate the central concepts using signal transduction as our main example. The ultimate aim is to introduce a general approach that provides the foundations for a structured formal engineering of large-scale models of biochemical networks.

Computational modelling of cancerous mutations in the EGFR/ERK signalling pathway

BackgroundThe Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) activated Extracellular-signal Regulated Kinase (ERK) pathway is a critical cell signalling pathway that relays the signal for a cell to proliferate from the plasma membrane to the nucleus. Deregulation of the EGFR/ERK pathway due to alterations affecting the expression or function of a number of pathway components has long been associated with numerous forms of cancer. Under normal conditions, Epidermal Growth Factor (EGF) stimulates a rapid but transient activation of ERK as the signal is rapidly shutdown. Whereas, under cancerous mutation conditions the ERK signal cannot be shutdown and is sustained resulting in the constitutive activation of ERK and continual cell proliferation. In this study, we have used computational modelling techniques to investigate what effects various cancerous alterations have on the signalling flow through the ERK pathway.ResultsWe have generated a new model of the EGFR activated ERK pathway, which was verified by our own experimental data. We then altered our model to represent various cancerous situations such as Ras, B-Raf and EGFR mutations, as well as EGFR overexpression. Analysis of the models showed that different cancerous situations resulted in different signalling patterns through the ERK pathway, especially when compared to the normal EGF signal pattern. Our model predicts that cancerous EGFR mutation and overexpression signals almost exclusively via the Rap1 pathway, predicting that this pathway is the best target for drugs. Furthermore, our model also highlights the importance of receptor degradation in normal and cancerous EGFR signalling, and suggests that receptor degradation is a key difference between the signalling from the EGF and Nerve Growth Factor (NGF) receptors.ConclusionOur results suggest that different routes to ERK activation are being utilised in different cancerous situations which therefore has interesting implications for drug selection strategies. We also conducted a comparison of the critical differences between signalling from different growth factor receptors (namely EGFR, mutated EGFR, NGF, and Insulin) with our results suggesting the difference between the systems are large scale and can be attributed to the presence/absence of entire pathways rather than subtle difference in individual rate constants between the systems.

Risk factors for bovine Tuberculosis at the national level in Great Britain

BackgroundThe continuing expansion of high incidence areas of bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in Great Britain (GB) raises a number of questions concerning the determinants of infection at the herd level that are driving spread of the disease. Here, we develop risk factor models to quantify the importance of herd sizes, cattle imports from Ireland, history of bTB, badgers and cattle restocking in determining bTB incidence. We compare the significance of these different risk factors in high and low incidence areas (as determined by parish testing intervals).ResultsLarge herds and fattening herds are more likely to breakdown in all areas. In areas with lower perceived risk (longer testing intervals), the risk of breaking down is largely determined by the number of animals that a herd buys in from high incidence areas. In contrast, in higher perceived risk areas (shorter testing intervals), the risk of breakdown is defined by the history of disease and the probability of badger occurrence. Despite differences in the management of bTB across different countries of GB (England, Wales and Scotland), we found no significant differences in bTB risk at the national level after these other factors had been taken into account.ConclusionsThis paper demonstrates that different types of farm are at risk of breakdown and that the most important risk factors vary according to bTB incidence in an area. The results suggest that significant gains in bTB control could be made by targeting herds in low incidence areas that import the greatest number of cattle from high incidence areas.