Richard K. Tompkins

Prediction of pneumonia in outpatients with acute cough--a statistical approach.

Cough is the fifth most common reason for physician visits, but data on acute cough have rarely been collected in a standardized manner and have not been analyzed in a multivariate fashion. We report data on 1819 patients presenting with cough, all of whom received a standardized history and physical, and a chest X-ray. Only 48 (2.6%) were found to have an acute radiographic infiltrate (pneumonia). The prevalence of common signs and symptoms is shown for the patients with and without pneumonia. Thirty-two of these findings were significant predictors of pneumonia (p less than 0.05, one-tailed). These 32 did not include some of the expected predictors of pneumonia and did include some predictors not previously described in the literature. A diagnostic rule is developed which identifies pneumonia patients with 91% sensitivity and 40% specificity, or 74% sensitivity and 70% specificity. The study results suggest that many pneumonias could be predicted based only on the patients histories. Physician visits to determine physical findings and chest X-rays might be avoided by telephone triage, with substantial cost savings.

An Efficient Strategy for Managing Acute Respiratory Illness in Adults

A safe, effective, and efficient clinical algorithm (management rule) for the care of adults with acute respiratory illness by nonphysician providers is presented. The algorithm was created from a data base collected on more than 5000 patients and prospectively evaluated on an additional 2637. It eliminates unhelpful diagnostic tests and minimizes physician involvement in patient care without compromising clinical standards, illness outcome, or patient satisfaction. Total direct medical care costs when the algorithm was used were approximately 40% of those costs generated by physicians managing similar patients, primarily because the algorithm directed an 80% reduction in a diagnostic test costs. The results suggest that significant savings can result when algorithms are used in the care of ambulatory patients with common illnesses.

The effect of chest radiographs on the management and clinical course of patients with acute cough.

The authors studied 2018 consecutive patients with a cough of less than 1 months duration, presenting for medical care with this problem for the first time. Chest films were taken of all of the last 1819 of these patients. After physicians had specified diagnoses and patient management plans for the last 1531 of these 1819 patients, 98 per cent of the 1531 were randomized either to a group whose chest films were then used in their care, or to a group whose chest films were not available to the physician. The results show that chest radiographs ordered by physicians resulted in potentially beneficial change in the care of only 3 per cent of patients. Only use of chest radiographs not ordered by physicians led to the appropriate addition of antibiotics to the care of patients with infiltrates, and probably to improved illness outcome. Criteria for efficient, effective use of chest radiographs in the management of patients with acute cough are needed.

Acute headaches; presenting symptoms and diagnostic rules to identify patients with tension and migraine headache

Abstract Headache is the ninth most common cause of physician visits, but data on acute headaches have not been collected in a standardized manner and have not been analyzed in a multivariate fashion. We report on 726 patients presenting with acute headaches, which were diagnosed as tension (38%), migraine (25%), no diagnosis (30%), and other (6%). The prevalence of 32 signs and symptoms is shown for each group. Four of these findings were significant predictors of tension headache, and 19 were significant predictors of migraine headache (p

The Effectiveness and Cost of Acute Respiratory Illness Medical Care Provided by Physicians and Algorithm-assisted Physicians' Assistants

The medical management of patients with acute respiratory illnesses was analyzed at two different clinics during a 14− to 21-month period. Patients received care from either physicians or physician-supervised physicians assistants (PA). The PAs used respiratory illness clinical algorithms to guide their choice of diagnostic tests and treatment. Illness outcome, patient satisfaction, and medical care cost data were obtained for all patients approximately two weeks after the index illness.Despite significant differences in patient population characteristics, illness outcomes were similar, regardless of the providers educational background. Medical care costs, however, were highest for the physicians patients. For all patients, diagnostic tests contributed about one-third of the total direct costs, mainly because of chest x-ray and throat culture use. Sixty to eighty per cent of medication costs were due to nonprescription drugs used principally for symptom relief.The data demonstrate that the medical care delivered by these physicians assistants was as effective and less costly than the care provided by physicians. Reducing chest x-ray and throat culture use would have a significant economic impact, without adversely affecting medical care effectiveness.

Phased trial of a proven algorithm at a new primary care clinic.

A previous study showed that a clinical algorithm for respiratory illnesses, consisting of a checklist, a set of instructions (logic), and computer audit/feedback, could reduce costs significantly while maintaining a high quality of care. The results of this study show that the algorithm system, developed and validated at one primary care clinic, can be successfully imported to another primary care clinic. In the present study, the algorithm system significantly improved the completeness of the medical records, reduced the use of medical tests by 20 per cent-75 per cent, and reduced non-provider costs by 36 per cent per patient visit. This study also shows that all three components of the algorithm system appear to be necessary to achieve these improvements and maintain a high quality of medical care. These results suggest that a wider use of the algorithm system for minor acute medical problems is both feasible and useful in providing high-quality cost-effective care that is auditable.

The Seattle evaluation of computerized drug profiles: effects on prescribing practices and resource use.

Since 1979, all outpatient pharmacy transactions at the US Public Health Service Hospital in Seattle have been captured in a computer system which generates a profile of each patients active and previously used drugs. We conducted a controlled trial in which patients were allocated to profile or no-profile groups while the computer continued to collect data on everyone. In all, 41,572 clinic visits made by 6,186 patients were studied. The incidence of preventable drug-drug interactions and redundancies was very low and was unaffected by profiles. For unclear reasons, prescription of two interacting drugs on the same visit was significantly more common for patients with profiles. The duration of drug-drug interaction episodes was significantly shorter for profile group patients, perhaps due to earlier detection of the error on subsequent visits. Profiles had no effect on prescribing volume or coordination of drug refill and visit schedules, but profile group patients made about 5 per cent fewer clinic visits than those in the no-profile group. In this setting, it appears that the prescribing of interacting or redundant drugs is more often due to inadequate provider knowledge than to inaccessible patient-specific drug data. Prevention of such errors would thus require a more active educational or monitoring program.