Richard L. Merrick

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIATION IN THE TIMING OF BIRTHS OF STELLER SEA LIONS

Abstract Throughout the range of the Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus), nearly all births of full-term pups observed from 1968 to 1998 occurred between 15 May and 15 July. We found significant differences in timing of births between rookeries with the earliest mean date of birth (4 June) at Forrester Island, Alaska, and the latest (21 June) at Año Nuevo Island, California. Mean date of birth becomes progressively later both north and south of Forrester Island. Births at individual rookeries were synchronous, with 90% of pups born within a 25-day period. We hypothesize that timing of births at rookeries is determined through selection for time periods when weather conditions are generally favorable for pup survival and when adequate prey items are predictably available near rookeries for lactating females. Temporal differences also were found in mean date of birth at 4 rookeries, with a maximum difference between earliest and latest mean date of birth of 10.2 days at Año Nuevo Island. The most likely explanation for temporal variability at individual rookeries is variable nutritional status of reproductive females.

Testing Decision Rules for Categorizing Species’ Extinction Risk to Help Develop Quantitative Listing Criteria for the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Lack of guidance for interpreting the definitions of endangered and threatened in the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has resulted in case-by-case decision making leaving the process vulnerable to being considered arbitrary or capricious. Adopting quantitative decision rules would remedy this but requires the agency to specify the relative urgency concerning extinction events over time, cutoff risk values corresponding to different levels of protection, and the importance given to different types of listing errors. We tested the performance of 3 sets of decision rules that use alternative functions for weighting the relative urgency of future extinction events: a threshold rule set, which uses a decision rule of x% probability of extinction over y years; a concave rule set, where the relative importance of future extinction events declines exponentially over time; and a shoulder rule set that uses a sigmoid shape function, where relative importance declines slowly at first and then more rapidly. We obtained decision cutoffs by interviewing several biologists and then emulated the listing process with simulations that covered a range of extinction risks typical of ESA listing decisions. We evaluated performance of the decision rules under different data quantities and qualities on the basis of the relative importance of misclassification errors. Although there was little difference between the performance of alternative decision rules for correct listings, the distribution of misclassifications differed depending on the function used. Misclassifications for the threshold and concave listing criteria resulted in more overprotection errors, particularly as uncertainty increased, whereas errors for the shoulder listing criteria were more symmetrical. We developed and tested the framework for quantitative decision rules for listing species under the U.S. ESA. If policy values can be agreed on, use of this framework would improve the implementation of the ESA by increasing transparency and consistency.

Mechanisms for science to shape US living marine resource conservation policy

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries are responsible for the stewardship of the US living marine resources and their habitat and for providing productive and sustainable fisheries, safe sources of seafood, the recovery and conservation of protected resources, and healthy ecosystems to the nation. Their approach to conservation requires, by legislative mandates, that management be informed by science. It has evolved into a four-step approach to providing this advice: (i) the national framework for conservation science, (ii) region specific implementation, (iii) development of unbiased, scientific advice as required by the framework, and (iv) scientists acting, as appropriate, as advocates and science communicators. This approach has been a conservation success where, e.g. 92% of known managed fish stocks are no longer being overfished and 84% of known stocks are at healthy levels, with the latter including 43 stocks rebuilt from depleted levels. In a changing marine climate, it is all the more important that marine conservation decisions be driven by science.