Richard Loulou

Reinforcing the EU Dialogue with Developing Countries on Climate Change Mitigation

The FP6 TOCSIN project has evaluated climate change mitigation options in China and India and the conditions for strategic cooperation on research, development and demonstration (RDD (II) a strong increase in Annex I support regarding RD (III) a well-designed mix of instruments and targets in an effective climate deal that addresses manifold national interests and concerns.

Methodological contrasts in costing greenhouse gas abatement policies: Optimization and simulation modeling of micro-economic effects in Canada

Abstract The national process in Canada for greenhouse gas abatement selected contrasting models to estimate costs, providing a rare opportunity to assess the importance of methodological differences in cost estimates when other input assumptions are the same. MARKAL is a well-known optimization model of the energy-economy system; CIMS is a policy simulation model developed initially for Canada. The models require the same technology and financial data, but CIMS, which does not assume financial cost minimization, also requires information on technology preferences, risk perceptions, tax effects and other critical factors in the decision making of firms and households in order to simulate their likely response to policies. Given the market inertia that is incorporated in a CIMS simulation, it estimates higher costs of emission reduction than MARKAL. CIMS present value cost estimate for Canada to achieve its Kyoto target of 6% below 1990 emissions by 2010 is

Using Advanced Technology-Rich Models for Regional And Global Economic Analysis of GHG Mitigation

45 billion (CDN) while MARKALs is

Global Energy and CO 2 Emission Scenarios: Analysis with a 15-Region World MARKAL Model

15 billion. When linked to a macro-economic model, the GDP impact of CIMS is 3% while that of MARKAL is less than 1%. This difference would have been slightly larger had all target assumptions of the two models been identical.

Assessment of the Effectiveness of Global Climate Policies Using Coupled Bottom-Up and Top-Down Models

This article presents the case for a detailed regional analysis of the economic impacts of GHG control, via a set of inter-connected, long term, technology rich, integrated equilibrium models of the energy systems of the countries constituting a region of interest. The potential extension to global analysis is also examined. The article applies the proposed methodology to the region composed of Canada and the United States of America.

From non-cooperative CO2 abatement strategies to the optimal world cooperation: Results from the integrated MARKAL model

A new version of the advanced multi-region World MARKAL model has been developed and calibrated to the A1B scenario of IPCC over a 50-year time horizon. The analysis of the base and CO2constrained cases confirms and refines several conclusions observed by other models. Amongst them: a) the level of non-emitting electricity generation in the base case is a crucial assumption for defining CO2reduction opportunities; b) CO2capture and sequestration compete directly with renewable electricity generation and contribute to a major reduction in the marginal cost of CO2; c) the primary consumption of coal may increase in the long term when associated with the capture of flue gas CO2at power plants; d) in transportation, the substitution of oil by biomass is robust and much preferred to the other alternative technologies; e) the price-induced reduction of elastic demands also contributes to the emissions reduction. The resulting annualized cost of CO2policies remains under 1% of the GDP in 2050 for the stabilization of CO2concentration at 550 ppmv (A1B base case). Hydrogen production and end-uses technologies, CO2capture and sequestration, as well as non-CO2greenhouse gases would deserve more attention. Future work will focus on the modelling and comparison of the cooperative and non-cooperative international frameworks.

Is a 2 degrees Celsius warming achievable under high uncertainty? Analysis with the TIMES integrated assessment model

In order to assess climate mitigation agreements, we propose an iterative procedure linking TIAM-WORLD, a global technology-rich optimization model, and GEMINI-E3, a global general equilibrium model. The coupling methodology combines the precise representation of energy and technology choices with a coherent representation of the macro-economic impacts, especially in terms of trade effects of climate policies on energy-intensive products. In climate mitigation scenarios, drastic technology breakthroughs are required as soon as possible, especially in large emitting countries, and in all sectors of the economy. Energy-intensive industries tend to be delocalized in regions where low-carbon production is feasible and cheap, or in regions without emission cap. However, emission leakage remains small, mainly due to global lower oil demand, and energy exporting countries are extremely penalized given lower energy exports. Emission reduction at least in the power sector and in energy-intensive industries of developing countries must be considered to reach the 2°C target.