Richard McCleary

The spring peak in suicides: a cross-national analysis

This study evaluates the relative influence of social vs bioclimatic factors on cross-national variation in the magnitude of spring suicide peaks. Time series and cross-sectional data for 28 countries are analyzed using bivariate plots and simple correlation. Suicide seasonality (both overall and specifically as manifest by the presence of a sizeable spring peak) is positively correlated with seasonality in other kinds of social activity (measured in this study by the proportion of national work forces engaged in agriculture). However, only populations in the temperature zone exhibit suicide seasonality, suggesting some contextual influence from geographical latitude.

Initiation and propagation stages of β-amyloid are associated with distinctive apolipoprotein E, age, and gender profiles

Several recent studies have defined a relationship between apo-lipoprotein E (apoE) genotype and the risk of various neurodegenerative disorders. However, few studies have examined the influence of apoE on quantitative measures of beta-amyloid (Abeta) accumulation in a large population of autopsy cases. Using a multi-level analysis model, the interrelationships among apoE genotype, gender, age, and Abeta accumulation were investigated. In the population of these cases, there was a strong relationship between the presence of an epsilon4 allele and extent of Abeta in the frontal and entorhinal cortex. That is, when evaluating the presence or absence of significant Abeta (>1% Abeta load), subjects with one and two epsilon4 alleles were 1.9 and 3.5 times more likely to have significant Abeta accumulation than those with no epsilon4 alleles. These risks increased by a multiplicative factor of 1.014 for each year of age (at the time of death). In the subset of cases with significant Abeta (>1% Abeta load), the degree of Abeta load was best predicted by the presence of an epsilon2 allele and gender; females with no epsilon2 alleles had the highest Abeta loads (mean=12.3%), while males with one epsilon2 allele had the lowest amount of Abeta accumulation (mean=8.6%). Our results suggest that the presence of an epsilon4 allele predicts an earlier onset of Abeta deposition that is independent of gender. In contrast, once Abeta deposition has been initiated, the presence of an epsilon2 allele is associated with slower rates of accumulation, with males benefiting from the protective effect more than females.

Full-information models for multiple psychometric tests : Annualized rates of change in normal aging and dementia

Summary:The rates of change for five widely used psychometric tests were analyzed to compare how much more variance reduction can be achieved using full-information methods relative to the single-equation methods previously used in dementia research. Nondemented controls and subjects with Alzheimer disease (AD), probable/possible vascular dementia (VD), or mixed dementia (MD) were evaluated. A cohort design was followed, with follow-up of three demented groups and one normal control group; data were analyzed in a multiple-equation regression model estimated with full-information methods. The study was conducted at Alzheimers Disease Research Center sites at the University of California, Irvine, and at the University of Southern California. In all, 226 patients and controls who had completed initial assessment and at least one annual reassessment were included in the study. Dependent variables were annualized rates of change in the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), the Short-Blessed Dementia Rating Scale (DRS), the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimers Disease drawings test (CD), the WAIS-R Block Design test (WRB), and the Boston Naming Test (BNT). Independent variables were dementia severity, diagnosis (AD, VD, MD, or control), sex, age, marital status, education, and age at onset. Full-information methods reduced the variance in the change scores by ≥25% compared with previous studies. The models prediction of a tests rate of change was almost entirely due to dementia stage and diagnosis. The effects of other explanatory variables (sex, marital status, age, and education) were weak and statistically insignificant. When the effects of other independent variables were controlled, AD and MD patients were found to decline at significantly faster rates than VD patients. Full-information methods, relative to single-equation methods, substantially reduce the variance of rates of change for multiple psychometric tests. They do so by simultaneously considering the correlated error terms in the regressions for each dependent psychometric change score variable. The robustness of these results to minor variations in follow-up time suggests that annualization is a reasonably valid procedure for making change scores comparable. This studys results suggest that change scores in psychometric tests provide information that can be used to aid differential diagnosis. However, the large variances of change scores preclude many other uses. Finally, since standardization of psychometric change scores translates all tests to the same scale (0-100%), standardized change scores are easier to interpret. The analysis of standardized change scores deserves further investigation

Winter Is the Infanticide Season Seasonal Risk for Child Homicide

This study investigates the circannual pattern of U.S. child homicide rates. Analyses of 23,067 child homicide records extracted from 1976 to 1998 FBI Supplemental Homicide Reports reveal a winter peak for infants and toddlers (age less than 2 years) and a summer peak for primary and middle school children (ages 5 to 14). Logistic regressions find distinct risk factors for the two peaks that support the prevailing developmental risk theory. The risk factors suggest guidelines for a more rational allocation of prevention resources both across the year and among different developmental subpopulations.

The Epidemiology of Child Homicide in California, 1981 through 1990:

An analysis of 30,929 California homicides (including 1,498 homicides younger than age 15) revealed important differences in child and adult risk factors. Adult victims and offenders were predominantly male, and Black or Hispanic; child victims and offenders were closer in race and sex composition to the general population. Adults were most likely to be killed by a stranger or acquaintance, children by a relative. Adult homicides peaked overnight and on weekends, child homicides at midday and midweek. Most adult homicides occurred in public, precipitated by a felony or a dispute; most child homicides occurred at home, precipitated by child abuse or homicide-suicide.

Ishihara test performance and dementia

Ishihara trail-tracing (TT) and number-naming (NN) tests were administered to a clinical sample of 378 demented patients. Error counts on TT and NN tests were best fit by a negative binomial (overdispersed Poisson) distribution. TT, NN, and combined (TT + NN) error counts were regressed on patient characteristics (sex, age, and education), severity of cognitive impairment (Mini-Mental State Exam: MMSE), dementia stage (Clinical Dementia Rating: CDR), etiology, onset age, and symptom duration in a negative binomial generalized linear model. Patient characteristics, onset age, and symptom duration had no significant effects on any error count. The effects of MMSE, CDR, and etiology, on the other hand, were highly significant and appear to help discriminate vascular dementia from Alzheimers disease. MMSE (which taps cognitive skills) correlated with both TT and NN errors. CDR (which taps both cognitive and functional skills) correlated only with TT errors and dementia etiology correlated only with NN errors. These distinct correlational patterns reflect differences between the TT and NN tasks (i.e., trail-tracing vs. number-naming) related to specific brain loci and associated functions. This aspect of the phenomenon suggests that Ishihara tests have useful clinical applications in dementia.

Do peep shows “cause” crime? A response to Linz, Paul, and Yao

Government regulation of adult entertainment businesses, including peep shows, must be aimed at mitigating adverse secondary effects such as crime. To determine whether San Diego’s regulations meet this Constitutional threshold, Linz, Paul, and Yao (2006) compared police calls-for-service (CFSs) in peep show and control areas. Finding no significant difference, they concluded that San Diego has no legitimate rationale for regulating any aspect of peep shows. We disagree not only with the Linz et al. finding, but also with the logical adequacy of their conclusion. Their finding is a methodological artifact, in our opinion, and their conclusion is a fallacy. Before explaining our opinion, however, we disclose two facts. First, although Linz et al. acknowledged that their article was based on an earlier paper, they did not acknowledge a still earlier report (Linz & Paul, 2002) commissioned by the plaintiffs in a lawsuit (Mercury Books v. City of San Diego, U.S. District Court, Southern District of California, 00-CV2461). This omission does not necessarily invalidate the Linz et al. finding, but the article’s ancestry may be a material fact in judging its “suitability, credibility, and validity for publication” in a peer-reviewed journal (Horton, 2004, p. 821).

Female Patrons of Porn

Although the proportion of women who patronize sexually oriented book-video-novelty stores appears to be growing, little is known about the phenomenon generally or about male–female differences. In the only studies of “female patrons of porn,” both Hefley (2007) and Berkowitz (2006) report that half of the customers that they observed entering two stores were women. Compared to men, women were less likely to enter alone. To further investigate this phenomenon, we observed customers entering 33 stores for 162 hours over a two-year period. Whereas the observations of Hefley (2007) and Berkowitz (2006) were limited to a few of the busiest hours, our observations span all seven weekdays and all hours. Seventeen percent of the patrons who entered the stores were women. This proportion varied over time and across the 33 stores. Women prefer to shop on weekend evenings in stores that provide visible security.

Length of stay for 25,791 California patients found incompetent to stand trial

Referrals and admissions to state psychiatric hospitals of criminal defendants found Incompetent to Stand Trial (IST) are on the rise in the state of California and other parts of the country. Studies of treatment outcomes of this population have primarily focused on factors that determine competency and/or restorability. However, as IST patients place an increasing resource burden on state psychiatric hospital systems, other outcomes such as length of stay (LOS) are becoming increasingly important for practitioners and policy makers to understand. This study employs the largest sample of IST patients in the literature; it includes all IST patients admitted to Californias state psychiatric hospitals between 2003 and 2016. This study analyzes demographics, clinical diagnoses, and hospital placement as predictors of LOS. Results suggest that demographics, with the exception of age, are poor predictors of LOS. However, diagnoses, especially of severe mental disorders (e.g., schizophrenia) were strongly related to LOS. Hospital placement was the strongest predictor of LOS. Explanations of these results and implications for forensic practitioners are discussed.

Characteristics of Forensic Patients in California With Dementia/alzheimer's Disease

ABSTRACT Criminal defendants found incompetent to stand trial (IST) are sent to state hospitals for treatment to be restored to competency. IST patients diagnosed with dementia and related disorders present a particular challenge to clinicians, because they must be restored successfully within a statutorily mandated time frame (e.g., 3 years in California for defendants charged with a felony offense). This study examined a comprehensive data set that included all forensic patients served by Californias Department of State Hospitals from September 2003 to February 2016. The findings revealed that, although most IST patients with a dementia diagnosis were restored to competency within the statutory time frames, they spent, on average, over twice as long confined than IST patients without a dementia diagnosis and were less likely than the latter group to be successfully restored. One implication of these findings is that forensic clinicians ought to assess whether IST patients diagnosed with dementia are likely to be restored or not as early as possible in the evaluation and triage process and report to the court any IST patients with a dementia diagnosis who are unlikely to be restored successfully. This would both prevent such patients from gratuitous confinement as well as free up treatment resources for other patients.