Richard N. Kocsis

Expertise in Psychological Profiling A Comparative Assessment

There has been little empirical study of the abilities contributing to proficient performance in psychological profiling. The authors sought to address this issue by comparing the accuracy of psychological profiles for a closed murder case generated by groups differing primarily in characteristics posited to underlie the profiling process. In addition to a sample of professional profilers, the study recruited groups of police officers, psychologists, university students, and self-declared psychics. Another group of participants compiled a generic profile of murderers without knowledge of the specific case given to other groups. Despite the small size of the sample of profilers, there were indications that this group had a set of profiling skills superior to the individual skills represented by the other expertise groups. In addition, the performance of psychologists was better in some respects than that of police and psychics, suggesting that an educated insight into human behavior might be relatively pertinent to psychological profiling. On the other hand, it would seem that psychics relied on nothing more than the social stereotype of a murderer in their production of the offenders profile.

Psychological Profiling of Sexual Murders: An Empirical Model

Psychological profiling represents the investigative technique of analyzing crime behaviors for the identification of probable offender characteristics. Profiling has progressively been incorporated into police procedures despite a surprising lack of empirical research to support its validity. Indeed, in the study of sexual murder for the purpose of profiling, very few quantitative, academically reviewed studies exist. This article reports on the results of a 4- year study into Australian sexual murders for the development of psychological profiling. The study involved 85 cases of sexual murder sampled from all Australian police jurisdictions. The statistical procedure of multidimensional scaling was employed. This analysis produced a five-cluster model of sexual murder behavior. First, a central cluster of behaviors was identified that represents common behaviors to all patterns of sexual murder. Next, four distinct out- lying patterns—predator, fury, perversion, and rape—were identified that each demonstrated distinct offence styles. Further analysis of these patterns also identified distinct offender characteristics that allow for the use of empirically robust offender profiles in future sexual murder investigations.

Validity, utility and ethics of profiling for serial violent and sexual offenders

Despite its apparent popularity, criminal personality profiling has been poorly evaluated as either an investigative aid or a conceptual tool. This article documents some aspects of the development of offender profiling. Importantly, it identifies and differentiates the different styles of profiling and their distinct conceptual orientations. The literature is also reviewed to extract what conclusions can be drawn with respect to the validity, utility and ethics of offender profiles in criminal investigations and what this may mean for psychiatry, psychology and the law in general.

Psychological Profiling of Offender Characteristics from Crime Behaviors in Serial Rape Offences

Criminal psychological profiling has progressively been incorporated into police procedures despite a dearth of empirical research. Indeed, in the study of serial violent crimes for the purpose of psychological profiling, very few original, quantitative, academically reviewed studies actually exist. This article reports on the analysis of 62 incidents of serial sexual assault. The statistical procedure of multidimensional scaling was employed in the analysis of this data, which in turn produced a five-cluster model of serial rapist behavior. First, a central cluster of behaviors were identified that represent common behaviors to all patterns of serial rape. Second, four distinct outlying patterns were identified as demonstrating distinct offence styles, these being assigned the following descriptive labels brutality, intercourse, chaotic, and ritual. Furthermore, analysis of these patterns also identified distinct offender characteristics that allow for the use of empirically robust offender profiles in future serial rape investigations.

Criminal Psychological Profiling: Validities and Abilities

Criminal psychological profiling has attained unprecedented recognition despite little empirical evidence to support its validity and the absence of any thorough exposition of the skills involved with the technique. This article reports on the empirically derived conclusions of studies that sought to examine the accuracy and skill of various groups performing a profiling task. The conclusions provide some support for the contention that professional profilers can produce a more accurate prediction of an unknown offender in comparison to other studied groups. The results also give an indication of the type of skills required for proficient profiling.

Investigative Experience and Accuracy in Psychological Profiling of a Violent Crime

Although psychological profiling has achieved wide acceptance in law enforcement investigations, there has been little empirical research into the skills required for profiling. One attribute that is frequently cited as quintessential for effective profiling is experience in police investigations. In a study similar in design to Kocsis, Irwin, Hayes, and Nunn, this study examined the importance in profiling of investigative experience by testing groups of homicide detectives, senior police detectives, trainee detectives, police recruits, and undergraduate chemistry students. The chemistry students tended to produce the most accurate profiles of the perpetrator of a closed homicide case. Of all the groups, the chemistry students most consistently outperformed a control group given no information about the case when constructing a profile of the offender. There was also some evidence of an inverse relationship between investigative experience and profile accuracy.

PSYCHOLOGICAL PROFILING OF SERIAL ARSON OFFENSES An Assessment of Skills and Accuracy

Although criminal psychological profiling is frequently cited as being applicable to arson offenses, little empirical research exists to substantiate this claim. This study sought to build on previous studies conducted by Kocsis, Irwin, Hayes, and Nunn (2000) by examining the accuracy of professional profilers with others in constructing a profile of a serial arsonist in response to case information presented. The professional profilers produced the most accurate profiles, followed by a group of university science students. Senior detectives and fire investigators tended to perform the worst and never better than a control group that had no specific information about the crime and could do little more than guess. The results offer some insight into the requisite skills for effective profiling. The key factor appears to be a capacity for objective and logical analysis—a characteristic shared by science students and professional profilers.

Believing is Seeing? Investigating the Perceived Accuracy of Criminal Psychological Profiles

This study investigated whether perceptions of criminal psychological profiles are influenced by the identity of the profile’s author. Police officers were given a profile they were told was written by either a professional profiler or by an unspecified author. When judged in relation to the actual perpetrator of the crime, police officers tended to perceive greater accuracy in a profile when it was labeled as authored by a professional profiler independent of the actual content of the profile. But officers’ judgments of the usefulness of the profile were not affected by knowledge of who wrote the profile. Explanations for this result focus on the ambiguous nature of criminal profiles and how this ambiguity enhances the likelihood that beliefs about the validity of profiling can color perceptions of the content of the profile.

An Empirical Assessment of Content in Criminal Psychological Profiles

Although criminal psychological profiling has been in use by law enforcement agencies for almost three decades, there is a paucity of empirical research examining the technique. A fundamental issue that has received little attention is the empirical evaluation of information contained in profiles composed by professional profilers. In this study, a group of profilers, police officers, psychologists, college students, and self-declared psychics were given information from a solved murder investigation, after which the participants composed a written profile predicting the probable offender. Professional profilers tended to write more lengthy profiles that contained more information about the nonphysical attributes of the offender and more information about the crime scene or the offender’s behavior before, during, and after the crime. These results are discussed in terms of their implication for our broader understanding of the technique of profiling and future directions for research into profiling.

Criminal Psychological Profiling of Serial Arson Crimes

The practice of criminal psychological profiling is frequently cited as being applicable to serial arson crimes. Despite this claim, there does not appear to be any empirical research that examines serial arson offence behaviors in the context of profiling. This study seeks to develop an empirical model of serial arsonist behaviors that can be systematically associated with probable offender characteristics. Analysis has produced a model of offence behaviors that identify four discrete behavior patterns, all of which share a constellation of common nondiscriminatory behaviors. The inherent behavioral themes of each of these patterns are explored with discussion of their broader implications for our understanding of serial arson and directions for future research.