Richard N. Watkins

Replacement Estrogens and Endometrial Cancer

We examined the incidence of endometrial cancer in a large prepaid group practice in the Seattle area. From July, 1975, to July, 1977, there was a sharp downward trend in the incidence of endometrial cancer that paralleled a substantial reduction in prescriptions for replacement estrogens. Incidence rates were estimated for estrogen users and nonusers among women 50 to 64 years of age with intact uteri; current long-term users had an annual risk for endometrial cancer between 1 and 3 per cent, whereas nonusers had a risk less than 1/10th as great. These incidence rates remained fairly constant over time among users and nonusers; the drop in overall incidence soon after estrogen use declined suggests that the increased risk associated with estrogens falls quickly after discontinuation. The reduction in incidence of endometrial cancer in this group practice was part of a general decline in the United States after 1975.

Utilization of Surgical Manpower in A Prepaid Group Practice

The median operative workload of seven general surgeons comprising the general surgical staff of a prepaid group practice of 158,000 enrollees was 9.9 hernia equivalents (HE) a week. The value was over three times that of a previously studied population of 19 general surgeons in fee-for-service community practice, and approximated a consensus standard of a full surgical workload. The median complexity of operations was 1.00 HE, similar to the community practice, and evidence suggested the most complex operation were handled by6 the surgeons with the most training. 23.6% of operations were performed on an ambulatory basis. The results suggest that the prepaid group practice under study possesses administrative mechanisms to efficiently utilize both general surgeons and the resources devoted to general surgery.

Time utilization of a population of general surgeons in a prepaid group practice.

Seven general surgeons in a prepaid group practice previously shown to have a mean operative work load of 9.2 hernia equivalents (HE) per week were found to have a standardized mean daytime working week of 56.2 hours, exclusive of evening activities of which 50.7 hours were devoted to professional activities. The surgeons also devoted a mean of 6.7 evening hours per week to professional activities for a mean net professional week of 57.4 hours. Comparisons with a population of previously studied community surgeons revealed that the prepaid group surgeons were able to produce a surgical output more than double that of the community surgeons while devoting only one and a half as much time to professional activities. Economies in the utilization of surgical manpower in the prepaid group appear to stem from: 1) restriction of practice setting to a single geographic location, 2) restriction of patients to surgical patients, 3) reduced surgeon waiting time in the office, and 4) the utilization of paraprofessional personnel for selected operative assisting. These economies were achieved while the prepaid group surgeons were observed to average more time per patient visit both on rounds and in the office than the community surgeons.

A comparison of surgical assisting in a prepaid group practice and a community hospital.

Previous studies of the work loads and time utilization of general surgeons in two different practice settings suggested that paraprofessional surgical assistants (SAs) could reduce surgeon assisting time and perhaps increase productivity. In order to further assess the potential advantage of using SAs as surgical assistants, the present study examines assisting patterns in a prepaid group practice where SAs are used and in a community hospital where only physicians are available to assist. In the prepaid group practice, 87 per cent of general surgical procedures were performed with an assistant; in the community hospital, 67 per cent of general surgical procedures were performed with an assistant. General practitioners also were found to assist in the community hospital; family practice residents, medical students and “others” also assisted in prepaid group. In both settings, the propensity to use an assistant was positively correlated with operative complexity. On operations of greatest complexity, surgeons were most likely to act as first assistants. The use of SAs was not usually associated with operative sessions longer than when surgeons assisted, except on operations of high complexity. In the prepaid group, SAs also frequently assisted on orthopedic surgery, neurosurgery and obstetricsgynecology, only occasionally on otolaryngology and plastic surgery, and never on ophthalmology. It appears that in organizations such as a prepaid group practice, where mechanisms for sharing resources exist and incentives are provided to minimize the total cost of surgery, the utilization of SAs might be associated with cost savings. At present, organizational and financial barriers exist to the introduction of paraprofessionals as surgical assistants. It is difficult to advocate the modification of these barriers to facilitate the training and large-scale introduction of this new group of paraprofessionals in the current surgical market where there may already be an excess supply of surgeons.

Oral Contraceptives and Breast Cancer

The incidence of breast cancer among users and non-users of oral contraceptives (OCs) was determined at Group Health Cooperative of Puget Sound, Seattle, Washington, a health care organization which maintains computer files of diagnoses and outpatient drug use. In women 45 years of age or younger, the incidence was nearly identical in users and non-users. In premenopausal women over 45 years of age, there was a positive association between current OC use and breast cancer, the risk ratio estimates and 90% confidence intervals being 4.0 (1.8-9.0) in women 46-50 years of age and 15.5 (5.2-46) in women 51-55 years of age.