Richard N. Zobel

Some Thoughts on the Problems of Modelling and Simulations of Large Scale Natural Events

Large scale natural events are relatively rare, have a large to massive impact locally and globally over short or long time periods. They may have enormous consequences for the survival of the human race. They can be due to natural or human causes. This paper addresses some of the major causes and considers how modelling and simulation may be used to minimize their effects and raises validation and verification issues for such models.

Some Recent Major Events and Considerations for Modelling and Simulation

Large scale natural events are relatively rare,have a large to massive impact locally and globally overshort or long time periods. They may have enormousconsequences for the survival of the human race. Theycan be due to natural or human causes. This paperaddresses some of the major causes and considers howmodelling and simulation may be used to minimize theireffects and raises validation and verification issues forsuch models.

Modelling Considerations for Dynamic Boundary Conditions in Respect to Tsunami Run-Up Simulations from 100 m Depth

Modelling of tsunami in shallow coastal waters involves fast flows which become complex as they reach the shore because of seabed and shore line boundaries, the pickup and deposit of sand, gravel, coral and rocks. This results in dynamic changes in the water/seafloor boundaries and the water/air boundaries. Typically, the seafloor may locally become deeper or shallower, giving rise to sand banks and small islands being removed and/or added. The consequences are further made more complex by reflections from shoreline solid features, deposition, and removal of materials such as sand on land. There may also be resulting complex chaotic waves and cross currents or even large vortices as seen in the Phuket video footage of the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Attempts to model such phenomena are describes in order to improve understanding of possible effects of future tsunamis.

Affordable Strategies for the Reduction of Future Tsunami Effects on Local Populations in Phuket, Krabi and Phang Nga, Southern Thailand

This paper initially reviews the sequence of events surrounding the tsunami disaster, which occurred on December 26, 2004, and how this affected Thailand. The authors then consider the concepts of minimisation of the after effects, on local people, homes, businesses, stock, supplies and services, and tourism. In these respects, consideration is first given to the built environment and its operation. Then the possibilities for protection, using both natural and man-made methods are reviewed. This is followed by suggestions for research projects, both small and large, suitable for undergraduate, masters, and doctoral students in an international collaborative environment, is presented. Finally, some conclusions are made on the feasibility of such projects