Richard P. Turco

Smoke and Dust Particles of Meteoric Origin in the Mesosphere and Stratosphere

Abstract A height profile of ablated mass from meteors is calculated, assuming an incoming mass of 10−16 g cm−2 s−1 (44 metric tons per day) and the velocity distribution of Southworth and Sekanina, which has a mean of 14.5 km s−1. The profile peaks at 84 km. The fluxes of micrometeorites and residual meteoroids are also calculated. The coagulation of the evaporated silicates into “smoke” particles is then followed by means of a model adapted from a previous study of the stratospheric sulfate layer. Numerous sensitivity tests are made. Features of the results are a sharp cutoff of the particle distribution above 90 km, and a surface area close to 10−9 cm2 cm−3 all the way from 30 to 85 km. Some confirmation is obtained from balloon studies of condensation nuclei, although the various measurements differ greatly. The optical scattering and extinction am shown to be undetectable. Several potential applications are suggested: nucleation of sulfate particles and noctilucent clouds, scavenging of metallic ions...

Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multple Nuclear Explosions

The potential global atmospheric and climatic consequences of nuclear war are investigated using models previously developed to study the effects of volcanic eruptions. Although the results are necessarily imprecise due to wide range of possible scenaros and uncertainty in physical parameters, the most probable first-order effects are serious. Significant hemispherical attenuation of the solar radiation flux and subfreezing land temperatures may be caused by fine dust raised in high-yield nuclear surface bursts and by smoke from city and forest fires ignited by airbursts of all yields. For many simulated exchanges of several thousand megatons, in which dust and smoke are generated and encircle the earth within 1 to 2 weeks, average light levels can be reduced to a few percent of ambient and land temperatures can reach -15 � to -25 �C. The yield threshold for major optical and climatic consequences may be very low: only about 100 megatons detonated over major urban centers can create average hemispheric smoke optical depths greater than 2 for weeks and, even in summer, subfreezing land temperatures for months. In a 5000-megaton war, at northern mid-latitude sites remote from targets, radioactive fallout on time scales of days to weeks can lead to chronic mean doses of up to 50 rads from external whole-body gamma-ray exposure, with a likely equal or greater internal dose from biologically active radionuclides. Large horizontal and vertical temperature gradients caused by absorption of sunlight in smoke and dust clouds may greatly accelerate transport of particles and radioactivity from the Northern Hemisphere to the Southern Hemisphere. When combined with the prompt destruction from nuclear blast, fires, and fallout and the later enhancement of solar ultraviolet radiation due to ozone depletion, long-term exposure to cold, dark, and radioactivity could pose a serious threat to human survivors and to other species.

Environmental perturbations caused by the impacts of asteroids and comets

We review the major impact-associated mechanisms proposed to cause extinctions at the Cretaceous-Tertiary geological boundary. We then discuss how the proposed extinction mechanisms may relate to the environmental consequences of asteroid and comet impacts in general. Our chief goal is to provide relatively simple prescriptions for evaluating the importance of impacting objects over a range of energies and compositions, but we also stress that there are many uncertainties. We conclude that impacts with energies less than about 10 Mt are a negligible hazard. For impacts with energies above 10 Mt and below about 104 Mt (i.e., impact frequencies less than one in 6 × 104 years, corresponding to comets and asteroids with diameters smaller than about 400 m and 650 m, respectively), blast damage, earthquakes, and fires should be important on a scale of 104 or 105 km², which corresponds to the area damaged in many natural disasters of recent history. However, tsunami excited by marine impacts could be more damaging, flooding a kilometer of coastal plain over entire ocean basins. In the energy range of 104–105 Mt (intervals up to 3 × 105 years, corresponding to comets and asteroids with diameters up to 850 m and 1.4 km, respectively) water vapor injections and ozone loss become significant on the global scale. In our nominal model, such an impact does not inject enough submicrometer dust into the stratosphere to produce major adverse effects, but if a higher fraction of pulverized rock than we think likely reaches the stratosphere, stratospheric dust (causing global cooling) would also be important in this energy range. Thus 105 Mt is a lower limit where damage might occur beyond the experience of human history. The energy range from 105 to 106 Mt (intervals up to 2 × 106 years, corresponding to comets and asteroids up to 1.8 and 3 km diameter) is transitional between regional and global effects. Stratospheric dust, sulfates released from within impacting asteroids, and soot from extensive wild-fires sparked by thermal radiation from the impact can produce climatologically significant global optical depths of the order of 10. Moreover, the ejecta plumes of these impacts may produce enough NO from shock-heated air to destroy the ozone shield. Between 106 and 107 Mt (intervals up to 1.5 × 107 years, corresponding to comets and asteroids up to 4 and 6.5 km diameter), dust and sulfate levels would be high enough to reduce light levels below those necessary for photosynthesis. Ballistic ejecta reentering the atmosphere as shooting stars would set fires over regions exceeding 107 km², and the resulting smoke would reduce light levels even further. At energies above 107 Mt, blast and earthquake damage reach the regional scale (106 km²). Tsunami cresting to 100 m and flooding 20 km inland could sweep the coastal zones of one of the worlds ocean basins. Fires would be set globally. Light levels may drop so low from the smoke, dust, and sulfate as to make vision impossible. At energies approaching 109 Mt (>108 years) the ocean surface waters may be acidified globally by sulfur from the interiors of comets and asteroids. The Cretaceous-Tertiary impact in particular struck evaporate substrates that very likely generated a dense, widespread sulfate aerosol layer with consequent climatic effects. The combination of all of these physical effects would surely represent a devastating stress on the global biosphere.

From molecular clusters to nanoparticles: Role of ambient ionization in tropospheric aerosol formation

We investigate the role of background ionization, associated mainly with galactic cosmic radiation, in the generation and evolution of ultrafine particles in the marine boundary layer. We follow the entire course of aerosol evolution, from the initial buildup of molecular clusters (charged and uncharged) through their growth into stable nanoparticles. The model used for this purpose is based on a unified collisional (kinetic) mechanism that treats the interactions between vapors, neutral and charged clusters, and particles at all sizes. We show that air ions are likely to play a central role in the formation of new ultrafine particles. The nucleation of aerosols under atmospheric conditions involves a series of competing processes, including molecular aggregation, evaporation, and scavenging by preexisting particles. In this highly sensitive nonlinear system, electrically charged embryos have a competitive advantage over similar neutral embryos. The charged clusters experience enhanced growth and stability as a consequence of electrostatic interactions. Simulations of a major nucleation event observed during the Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM) Tropics-A can explain most of the observed features in the ultrafine particle behavior. The key parameters controlling this behavior are the concentrations of precursor vapors and the surface area of preexisting particles, as well as the background ionization rate. We find that systematic variations in ionization levels due to the modulation of galactic cosmic radiation by the solar cycle are sufficient to cause a notable variation in aerosol production. This effect is greatest when the ambient nucleation rate is limited principally by the availability of ions. Hence we conclude that the greatest influence of such ionization is likely to occur in and above the marine boundary layer. While a systematic change in the ultrafine particle production rate is likely to affect the population of cloud condensation nuclei and hence cloud optical properties, the magnitude of the effect cannot be directly inferred from the present analysis, and requires additional analysis based on specific aerosol-cloud interactions.

Ultrafine aerosol formation via ion-mediated nucleation

The role of background ionization in the generation and evolution of ultrafine atmospheric particles is developed through modeling and data analysis. It is found that charged molecular clusters condensing around natural air ions can grow significantly faster than corresponding neutral clusters, and thus preferentially achieve stable, observable sizes. Detailed microphysical simulations of this process seem to explain recent measurements of ultrafine particle behavior, as well as the diurnal variation seen in tropospheric mobility spectra. The proposed ion-mediated nucleation mechanism leads to the production of new particles under conditions that are unfavorable for binary homogeneous nucleation, and provides a consistent explanation for a variety of tropospheric observations.

A One-Dimensional Model Describing Aerosol Formation and Evolution in the Stratosphere: I. Physical Processes and Mathematical Analogs

Abstract We have developed a time-dependent one-dimensional model of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer. In constructing the model, we have incorporated a wide range of basic physical and chemical processes in order to avoid predetermining or biasing the model predictions. The simulation, which extends from the surface to an altitude of 58 km, includes the troposphere as a source of gases and condensation nuclei and as a sink for aerosol droplets; however, tropospheric aerosol physics and chemistry are not fully analyzed in the present model. The size distribution of aerosol particles is resolved into 25 discrete size categories covering a range of particle radii from 0.01–2.56 µm with particle volume doubling between categories. In the model, sulfur gases reaching the stratosphere are oxidized by a series of photochemical reactions into sulfuric acid vapor. At certain heights this results in a supersaturated H2SO4–H2O gas mixture with the consequent deposition of aqueous sulfuric acid solution on th...

A multidimensional model for aerosols: description of computational analogs

Abstract The numerical algorithms which we use to simulate the advection, diffusion, sedimentation, coagulation and condensational growth of atmospheric aerosols are described. The model can be used in one, two, or three spatial dimensions. We develop the continuity equation in a generalized horizontal and vertical coordinate system which allows the model to be quickly adapted to a wide variety of dynamical models of global or regional scale. Algorithms are developed to treat the various physical processes and the results of simulations are presented which show the strengths and weaknesses of these algorithms. Although our emphasis is on the modeling of aerosols, the work is also applicable to simulations of the transport of gases.

Noctilucent clouds: Simulation studies of their genesis, properties and global influences

Abstract The formation, evolution and properties of noctilucent clouds are studied using a timedependent one-dimensional model of ice particles at mesospheric altitudes. The model treats ice crystals, meteoric dust, water vapor and air ionization as fully interactive cloud elements. For ice particles, the microphysical processes of nucleation, condensation, coagulation and sedimentation are included; the crystal habits of ice are also accounted for. Meteoric dust is analyzed in the manner of Hunten et al. (1980). The simulated particle sizes range from 10 A to 2.6μm. The chemistry of water vapor and the charge balance of the mesosphere are also analyzed in detail. Based on model calculations, including numerous sensitivity tests, several conclusions are reached. Extremely cold mesopause temperatures ( 2 O. Ample cloud condensation nuclei are always present in the mesosphere; at very low temperatures, either meteoric dust or hydrated ions can act as cloud nuclei. To be effective, meteoric dust particles must be larger than 10–15 A in radius. When dust is present, water vapor supersaturations may be held to such low values that ion nucleation is not possible. Ion nucleation can occur, however, in the absence of dust or at extremely low temperatures ( −3 ) of large ice particles (>0.05 μm radius) and cloud optical depths (at 550 nm) ∼10 −4 , ion nucleation generally leads to a large number (∼10 3 cm −3 ) of smaller particles and optical depths ∼10 −5 ). However, because calculated nucleation rates in noctilucent clouds are highly uncertain, the predominant nucleus for the clouds (i.e., dust or ions) cannot be unambiguously established. Noctilucent clouds require several hours-up to a day-to materialize. Once formed, they may persist for several days, depending on local meteorological conditions. However, the clouds can disappear suddenly if the air warms by 10–20 K. The environmental conditions which exist at the high-latitude summer mesopause, together with the microphysics of small ice crystals, dictate that particle sizes will be ≲ 0.1 μm radius. The ice crystals are probably cubic in structure. It is demonstrated that particles of this size and shape can explain the manifestations of noctilucent clouds. Denser clouds are favored by higher water vapor concentrations, more rapid vertical diffusion and persistent upward convection (which can occur at the summer pole). Noctilucent clouds may also condense in the cold “troughs” of gravity wave trains. Such clouds are bright when the particles remain in the troughs for several hours or more; otherwise they are weak or subvisible. Model simulations are compared with a wide variety of noctilucent cloud data. It is shown that the present physical model is consistent with most of the measurements, as well as many previous theoretical results. Ambient noctilucent clouds are found to have a negligible influence on the climate of Earth. Anthropogenic perturbations of the clouds that are forecast for the next few decades are also shown to have insignificant climatological implications.

SMVGEAR : a sparse-matrix, vectorized Gear code for atmospheric models

Abstract We present a Gear-type code that efficiently solves ordinary differential equations in large grid-domains. To obtain the final code, we modified an original program of C.W. Gear, built and added a sparse-matrix package, and vectorized all loops about the grid-cell dimension. Furthermore, to obtain at least 90% vectorization potential while preventing equations in some regions of the grid from slowing the solution over the entire grid-domain, we divided the domain into blocks of grid-cells and vectorized around these blocks. The sparse-matrix solution reduced the average number of LU-decomposition calculations, compared to a full-matrix solution, by factors of between 20 (for a matrix of order 40) and 120 (for a matrix of order 90). It also reduced both back-substitution calculations and total array space by factors of between 5 and 12 for the above matrix sizes. Vectorization on a CRAY-90 computer increased the speed by another factor of about 120 over the code running in scalar form. We tested the speed and accuracy of the program for several chemical applications on a single processor of the CRAY-90 computer. The code averaged between 1 and 2 min of computer time per day of simulation to solve a smog-chemistry set of 92 specied and 222 reactions over a 10,000-cell grid, with continuously changing photorates. It also took 3–4 min per day to solve a stratospheric-chemistry set of 39 species and 108 reactions over a 100,000-cell grid. In addition, we tested the speed of the code while it solved aqueous chemistry in 43 aerosol size bins, along with other physical processes and transport, over a large grid. Finally, we compared the speed and other statistics from SMVGEAR to those of an existing sparse matrix Gear code, LSODES, and to a new method that we call the Multistep Implicit-Explicit (MIE) method.

An overview of geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulphate aerosols

We provide an overview of geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosols. The state of understanding about this topic as of early 2008 is reviewed, summarizing the past 30 years of work in the area, highlighting some very recent studies using climate models, and discussing methods used to deliver sulphur species to the stratosphere. The studies reviewed here suggest that sulphate aerosols can counteract the globally averaged temperature increase associated with increasing greenhouse gases, and reduce changes to some other components of the Earth system. There are likely to be remaining regional climate changes after geoengineering, with some regions experiencing significant changes in temperature or precipitation. The aerosols also serve as surfaces for heterogeneous chemistry resulting in increased ozone depletion. The delivery of sulphur species to the stratosphere in a way that will produce particles of the right size is shown to be a complex and potentially very difficult task. Two simple delivery scenarios are explored, but similar exercises will be needed for other suggested delivery mechanisms. While the introduction of the geoengineering source of sulphate aerosol will perturb the sulphur cycle of the stratosphere signicantly, it is a small perturbation to the total (stratosphere and troposphere) sulphur cycle. The geoengineering source would thus be a small contributor to the total global source of ‘acid rain’ that could be compensated for through improved pollution control of anthropogenic tropospheric sources. Some areas of research remain unexplored. Although ozone may be depleted, with a consequent increase to solar ultraviolet-B (UVB) energy reaching the surface and a potential impact on health and biological populations, the aerosols will also scatter and attenuate this part of the energy spectrum, and this may compensate the UVB enhancement associated with ozone depletion. The aerosol will also change the ratio of diffuse to direct energy reaching the surface, and this may influence ecosystems. The impact of geoengineering on these components of the Earth system has not yet been studied. Representations for the formation, evolution and removal of aerosol and distribution of particle size are still very crude, and more work will be needed to gain confidence in our understanding of the deliberate production of this class of aerosols and their role in the climate system.