Richard P. Urbanek

Social Learning of Migratory Performance

Follow the Leader How birds migrate between wintering and breeding grounds, often over thousands of kilometers through difficult conditions, remains mysterious. The recovery of North American Whooping Cranes by release of captive-reared birds trained to migrate by following aircraft provided an opportunity for Mueller et al. (p. 999; see the cover) to analyze 8 years of data for individual birds. The presence of older birds within a group of migrating cranes significantly decreased the deviations the flock took from a straight line migration path. The lack of evidence for a genetic component indicates that social learning dominates any innate capacity in developing migratory behavior. Whooping cranes learn their annual migration routes from their neighbors. Successful bird migration can depend on individual learning, social learning, and innate navigation programs. Using 8 years of data on migrating whooping cranes, we were able to partition genetic and socially learned aspects of migration. Specifically, we analyzed data from a reintroduced population wherein all birds were captive bred and artificially trained by ultralight aircraft on their first lifetime migration. For subsequent migrations, in which birds fly individually or in groups but without ultralight escort, we found evidence of long-term social learning, but no effect of genetic relatedness on migratory performance. Social learning from older birds reduced deviations from a straight-line path, with 7 years of experience yielding a 38% improvement in migratory accuracy.

Winter release and management of reintroduced migratory Whooping Cranes Grus americana

From 2001 to 2005, 71 costume-reared juvenile Whooping Cranes Grus americana were led by ultralight aircraft from Wisconsin to a winter release site on the west-central Gulf Coast of Florida. A strategy was developed and implemented to maximize first winter survival while preventing exposure to non-costumed humans and tame Sandhill Cranes, maximize social bonding between males and females, promote safe roosting and wild behaviour, and minimize harassment by Whooping Cranes from earlier releases. Methods were improved each year; these modifications included enlargement of an open-topped release pen, creation of an artificial roosting substrate, addition of a top-netted pen, and holding birds at a distant pen site until older birds had cleared the release area. These techniques resulted in high survival and successful adaptation to the wild after migration from the winter release site.

Bayesian analysis of multi-state data with individual covariates for estimating genetic effects on demography

Inbreeding depression is frequently a concern of managers interested in restoring endangered species. Decisions to reduce the potential for inbreeding depression by balancing genotypic contributions to reintroduced populations may exact a cost on long-term demographic performance of the population if those decisions result in reduced numbers of animals released and/or restriction of particularly successful genotypes (i.e., heritable traits of particular family lines). As part of an effort to restore a migratory flock of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) to eastern North America using the offspring of captive breeders, we obtained a unique dataset which includes post-release mark–recapture data, as well as the pedigree of each released individual. We developed a Bayesian formulation of a multi-state model to analyze radio-telemetry, band-resight, and dead recovery data on reintroduced individuals, in order to track survival and breeding state transitions. We used studbook-based individual covariates to examine the comparative evidence for and degree of effects of inbreeding, genotype, and genotype quality on post-release survival of reintroduced individuals. We demonstrate implementation of the Bayesian multi-state model, which allows for the integration of imperfect detection, multiple data types, random effects, and individual- and time-dependent covariates. Our results provide only weak evidence for an effect of the quality of an individual’s genotype in captivity on post-release survival as well as for an effect of inbreeding on post-release survival. We plan to integrate our results into a decision-analytic modeling framework that can explicitly examine tradeoffs between the effects of inbreeding and the effects of genotype and demographic stochasticity on population establishment.

A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the biting-insect hypothesis and other hypotheses for nesting failure in this reintroduced population; resulting inferences will support ongoing efforts to manage this population via an adaptive management approach. Wider application of our approach offers promise for modeling the effects of other temporally varying, but imperfectly observed covariates on nest survival, including the possibility of modeling temporally varying covariates collected from incubating adults.

Winter Distribution Dynamics and Implications to a Reintroduced Population of Migratory Whooping Cranes

Abstract From 2001 to 2012, the Whooping Crane Eastern Partnership released 196 costume-reared juvenile whooping cranes Grus americana in the eastern United States in an effort to reintroduce a migratory population of this endangered species. Techniques included leading juveniles from Wisconsin to wintering areas by ultralight aircraft or direct release of juveniles in Wisconsin prior to their first autumn migration. With few exceptions, ultralight-led cranes released on the Florida Gulf Coast wintered in inland freshwater habitats in subsequent winters. Wintering of the population occurred in four general regions: Florida–southern Georgia, coastal Carolina, the Mid-South (primarily Tennessee and northern Alabama), and the North (Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky). Releases of ultralight-led juveniles resulted in the majority of the population returning to winter in Florida during the early years of the reintroduction. Later direct autumn releases and shortstopping by ultralight-led birds increased numbers ...