Richard Pomfret

Evaluating the Research Output of Australian Universities' Economics Departments

This paper presents measures of the research output of Australian economics departments. Our study covers the 640 academic staff at rank Lecturer and above in the 27 Australian universities with economics departments containing eight or more staff in April 2002. We construct publication measures based on journal articles, which can be compared with weighted publication measures, and citation measures, which can be compared with the publication measures. Our aim is to identify the robustness of rankings to the choice of method, as well as to highlight differences in focus of departments’ research output. A striking feature of our measures is that the majority of economists in Australian university departments have done no research that has been published in a fairly long list of refereed journals over the last dozen years. They may publish in other outlets, but in any event their work is rarely cited. Thus, average research output is low because many academic economists in Australia do not view research as part of their job or, at least, suffer no penalty from failing to produce substantive evidence of research activity.

Kazakhstan's Economy since Independence: Does the Oil Boom Offer a Second Chance for Sustainable Development?

KAZAKHSTAN HAS HUGE OIL AND NATURAL GAS RESERVES, rich unmined veins of copper, chrome and aluminium, and substantial gold deposits, as well as enough developed farm and pasture land to feed itself. Yet these resources were poorly utilised during the first decade after the country became independent in late 1991. The inheritance of a weak state with a precarious ethnic balance between Kazakhs and Russians created substantial economic uncertainty. Mass migration during the first half of the 1990s contributed to economic decline, and disappointing inflows of foreign capital held up development of the oil and mineral sectors. In the initial years following independence Kazakhstans leadership was preoccupied with nation building in the context of real prospects of secession or internal conflict. Economic policy in 1992-94 was driven in large measure by President Nazarbaevs attempts to maintain close economic ties with Russia. Kazakhstan was the last Soviet republic to formally declare its independence in 1991 and its leader was the most assiduous in trying to construct a viable successor organisation to the USSR. Kazakhstan followed Russias radical reforms, notably the price liberalisation of January 1992 and early privatisation measures, but macroeconomic stability was not pursued, and even if it had been desired was hamstrung by retention of the ruble until November 1993 (Pomfret, 1995). In 1994 pluralism briefly flourished, before the process of political repression began to take shape and Kazakhstan became noticeably less democratic than Russia. Despite statements to the contrary, economic reform was put largely on hold for the remainder of the decade.1 In the mid-1990s Kazakhstans privatisation process took a similar turn to Russias as a voucher scheme was displaced by asset sales. Between September 1995 and the end of 1996 many of the most valuable state enterprises were sold. During this period the governments attention also began to focus more narrowly on oil sector development, and became associated with wealth accumulation by the elite. Externally, Kazakhstan became seen less as one of the reformist CIS countries and more as an example of a corrupt Soviet successor state. The economy was hit by several negative exogenous shocks in the late 1990s, notably low oil prices and the August 1998 Russian crisis. Following a large currency devaluation in 1999 and an

Transition and Democracy in Mongolia

The overall picture of the Mongolian economic performance during the 1990s has been described as rapid and successful. It is noted that despite the adverse initial conditions in the 1990s Mongolia has been successful in embracing democracy and bringing about a rapid economic reform. This article determines the authenticity of this judgement by examining closely the case of Mongolia. Divided into five sections the first section provides a brief review of the economy on the eve of the raid reforms introduced after the July 1990 presidential election. The second section describes the reform program introduced in the first half of the 1990s and reinvigorated after the 1996 elections. Section 3 argues that the lack of strong political backlash against economic transition in the country is partially due to two economic stabilizers which smoothed the adjustment process. These include the traditional pastoral lifestyle and the flourishing informal sector. Section 4 analyzes the role of democracy in Mongolia emphasizing the broad consensus on underlying fundamentals including the desirability of a market-based economy and incorporating attitudes towards the pastoral and the informal sectors. Finally the fifth section draws some conclusions from the discussions.

Agrarian reform in Uzbekistan: why has the Chinese model failed to deliver?

The paper analyses the nature and effects of agrarian reform in Uzbekistan. Since becoming independent in late 1991, Uzbekistan has followed a gradual reform path, often invoking the Chinese model. Agrarian reform has resembled Chinas post-1978 household responsibility system, but has failed to deliver the rapid agricultural growth which followed the Chinese reforms.

The Uzbek Model of Economic Development, 1991-91

Uzbekistan has been difficult to classify among the thirty-plus economies in transition during the 1990s and has posed a puzzle, because it is a slow reformer but relatively good performer. This paper argues that there is no simple Uzbek model. Uzbekistan?s economic reform process has been inconsistent gradualism through three different phases during the 1990s. Economic performance was due to favourable external conditions during the first half of the 1990s and to reasonably good policy-making, although policy errors in late 1996 led to negative effects. Uzbekistan illustrates the importance of policy, but sheds little light on a debate framed in terms of rapid reform versus gradualism.

Technology spillovers from foreign direct investment in Vietnam: horizontal or vertical spillovers?

This paper uses firm-level data to examine how technology spillovers through foreign direct investment (FDI) affect the productivity of domestic firms in Vietnam. We advance the understanding as to when, where and under what conditions FDI generates technology spillovers to domestic firms. We find that domestic firms gain technology spillovers through vertical linkages with foreign firms, but the effect of the horizontal presence of foreign firms on the productivity of domestic firms is negative. This suggests that potential technology transfer between foreign firms and their local competitors is more than offset by the competition induced by the entry of foreign firms. The existence and strength of horizontal and vertical spillovers depend on industry and firm characteristics and on the types of FDI.

Constructing a market economy : diverse paths from central planning in Asia and Europe

Introduction: what is transition? the historical background and goals of transtion the changing field of transition economics. The Soviet blueprint: the Soviet experience the spread of Stalinist economies the classical Soviet-type economy variants on the Soviet model the theory of planned economies the end of Soviet-type central planning. Elements of transition: price reform and trade policy macroeconomic policy enterprise reform financial reform labour markets social policies priorities and pitfalls. Performance: inflation output income distribution and poverty determinants of performance. Creating a market economy: the quality of institutions institutional success and failure the role of foreign aid, multilateral institutions and external advisers dynamics and uncertainty. Conclusions.

Turkmenistan: From Communism to Nationalism by Gradual Economic Reform

Turkmenistans economic performance during the first decade after independence is interesting because it is an extreme case, regularly ranking last among all the former centrally planned economies by transition indicators measuring speed of reform or degree of economic liberalization. This paper analyses the evolution of the economic system and Turkmenistans economic development since 1991. The countrys abundant resource endowment provided favourable initial conditions for pursuing an agenda that gave a low priority to economic reform, while emphasizing the countrys neutrality and minimizing internal political change. Nevertheless, in 1997 the unreformed economy suffered a deep decline and, although it has enjoyed some recovery since 1999, the overall performance of GDP since independence is one of the worst among all transition economies. Although the government had achieved its external and internal political goals, the economic strategy appeared to be unsustainable.

The theory of preferential trading arrangements

ZusammenfassungDie Theorie der PrÄferenzabkommen. - Hier wird ein überblick über die Theorie der geographisch diskriminierenden Handelspolitik gegeben. Der rote Faden ist, da\ es im Laufe der sechziger Jahre auf diesem Gebiet der Au\enhandelstheorie zu einem Stillstand kam, weil die grundlegende These, PrÄferenzzollsenkungen müssen einseitigen nicht-diskrimierenden Zollsenkungen unterlegen sein, mit dem rapiden Anstieg der PrÄferenzhandelsabkommen unvereinbar zu sein schien. Es werden Versuche zu einer Auflösung dieses Stillstands erörtert, wobei das Schwergewicht auf die Notwendigkeit gelegt wird, in die Analyse wieder internationale Verteilungswirkungen einzubeziehen.RésuméLa théorie des accords commerciaux préférentiels. - L’auteur présente un aperÇu sur la théorie des politiques commerciales géographiquement discriminatoires. Le sujet unifiant est que pendant les années soixante cette approche théorique s’arrÊtait parce que la proposition centrale (c.-à.-d. réductions tarifaires préférentielles doivent Être inférieures aux réductions unilatérales non-discriminatoires) semblait Être inconsistante avec la prolifération des accords commerciaux préférentiels. L’auteur discute des approches pour résoudre cette difficulté en soulignant la nécessité de réintroduire des effets de distribution internationale dans l’analyse.ResumenLa teoría del comercio preferencial. - Se présenta la teoría del comercio discriminatorio segÚn regiones geográficas. La necesidad de tratar este tema deriva del hecho de que durante la década del sesenta perdió fuerza la propositión central de esta teoría (reducciones arancelarias preferenciales son inferiores a reducciones arancelarias unilaterales y no discriminatorias) al ser inconsistente con la proliferatión de acuerdos sobre comercio preferencial observada. Se presentan varios intentas de resolver esta dificultad, poniendo énfasis en la necesidad de reintroducir efectos distributives internacionales en el análisis.

ASEAN's New Frontiers: Integrating the Newest Members into the ASEAN Economic Community

Since Vietnam, Lao Peoples Democratic Republic (PDR), Myanmar, and Cambodia joined the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the 1990s, concerns have been raised over a Development Divide. The real division is between ASEAN members participating in the integrated East Asian economy and those that do not. The older ASEAN members have become more efficient traders, and Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam must reform faster if they are to catch up. Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar are not meeting the challenge, but Vietnam may be leaving the laggards, and the Philippines is lagging the leaders. The challenge is how to avoid a two‐tier ASEAN with fast‐growing modern economies coexisting besides inward‐looking poor countries.