Richard S. Eckaus

The North-South Differential In Italian Economic Development

Though the economy of Italy has been transformed in the one hundred years since its uninfication, the various regions have experienced quite different degrees of development. Southern Italy, including Sicily and Sardinia, all of which comprises 40 per cent of the land area and, today, about 37 per cent of the population, has lagged far behind the North.

Rethinking the Kyoto emissions targets

The overall targets for greenhouse gas emissions of the Kyoto Protocol are not based on a specific objective for the future world climate. Moreover, the allocations of emissions restrictions among countries do not have a principled logic and impose arbitrary differences in costs. Calculations arepresented of the costs of alternative guidelines for emissions restrictions, each of which has a plausible ethical basis: equal per capita reductions, equal country shares in reductions, equalized welfare costs, and emulation of the United Nations budget allocations. All of these would result in far lower total costs of reaching the Kyoto targets. The alternatives would also eliminate the wholly capricious accommodations given to the Former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. The lower cost alternativeswould permit the Annex B countries to make unequivocal commitments for cost reimbursement to the non-Annex B countries to induce them to participate in emissions reductions. Everyone would gain from that.

China's exports, subsidies to state-owned enterprises and the WTO

Although China agreed to abandon their use by 2001, subsidies to loss-making state owned enterprises continued through 2002. OLS and fixed effects regressions based on Chinese provincial data suggest strongly that the subsidies and annual increments in long term bank loans have stimulated the exports of state owned enterprise in those provinces that have done most of the exporting. Exports of foreign invested enterprises, reflecting provincial exporting conditions, were also important. The subsidies may have compensated for high production costs, weaknesses in domestic markets and/or the desire of local governments to maintain employment in state owned enterprises.

Some consequences of fiscal reliance on extrabudgetary revenues in China

Abstract The central and especially the local governments in China have become increasingly dependent on extrabudgetary revenues (EBRs), which, by 1996, were more than half as large as tax revenues. These many thousand fees and levies are mainly ad hoc and disparate exactions that generate microeconomic inefficiencies and counter economic growth and can become sources of corruption. Regressions on a panel of provincial data indicate that the EBRs fall most heavily on the primary producing sectors, which are mainly agricultural. The regressions also suggest that dependence on these fees has also turned health and education public goods into fee-for-service sectors.

A social accounting matrix for Egypt, 1976

A 1976 Social Accounting Matrix for Egypt is presented and the methods of estimation used are described briefly. Some of the implications of the accounting are discussed. The information on the distribution of taxes and subsidies indicates that the latter are the major source of progressiveness in the fiscal system. In relation to their incomes, rural households are also shown to pay less in taxes and receive less in subsidies than urban households.

Energy-economy interactions in Mexico: A multiperiod general equilibrium model

Abstract A multisector, multiperiod linear programming model is constructed to analyze the interactions of energy and economic policy issues in Mexico. Using piece-wise linear approximations, the model embodies non-linear substitution possibilities between alternative technologies within sectors, between foreign borrowing in successive time periods, between the rate of oil extraction and reserve depletion and in consumption and trade patterns. Complete intertemporal efficiency is achieved as compared to the temporally myopic feature of conventional computable general equilibrium models. Alternative solutions suggest that production restraint to help stabilize oil prices may have had significant costs to Mexico and that imposition of a debt ceiling could create infeasible conditions, without significant changes in behavioural relations.

Economic assessment of CO2 capture and disposal

Abstract A multi-sector multi-region general equilibrium model of economic growth and emissions is used to explore the conditions that will determine the market penetration of CO2 capture and disposal technology.

An Inquiry into the Determinants of the Exports of China and India

Regression analysis is used to tease out the relative significance of influences on the supply and demand for the exports of China and India. On the supply side, the value-added tax in China has discouraged export supply. The elimination of the rebate on those taxes will discourage exports. Higher wages discourage exports, but the share of exports by foreign invested enterprise is a positive influence, as is a higher share of value added in output and greater experience in exporting. On the demand side, exports depend in part on aggregate income levels in importing countries. Relative wages have been more important than exchange rates in determining the demands for Chinese and Indian exports. This evidence does not support the pressures for a devaluation of the RMB. There is also evidence of the positive significance of the accustomization of purchasers to buying Chinese exports.

The Acceleration Principle Reconsidered

I. Introduction, 209. — II. Theoretical development of the acceleration principle, 211. — III. Critical appraisal of the acceleration principle, 216. — IV. Other forms of the acceleration principle, 221.

Observations on the conditionality of international financial institutions

Abstract Conditionality, the terms imposed by international financial institutions on borrowing countries, has been regarded by critics as being too inflexible and focussing too narrowly on demand forces and monetary policy instruments. The major intent of the paper, however, is to shift the discussion of conditionality to its functions in relation to private international lending. Conditionality provides information to lenders and certification of borrowers which, by decreasing uncertainty, may increase the quantities and reduce the costs of private lending. Yet restrictions on total and/or foreign credit may also reduce competition. These are examples of neglected issues of conditionality which deserve more attention.