Richard S. Flickinger

One Europe, Many Electorates?: Models of Turnout in European Parliament Elections After 2004

The 2004 European Parliament (EP) elections were marked by continued decline in voter turnout and wide variation in turnout levels among the member states. The addition of 10 new members for the 2004 election results presents a unique opportunity to test established explanations of turnout in EP elections. The authors re-examine models developed from general participation studies and applied in earlier research on turnout in EP elections. The updated and revised analysis continues to point to the importance of both national and European Union—level influences in explaining EP election turnout. Thus, although the second-order model of European elections still holds considerable appeal, the increasing divergence of turnout patterns in 2004 and through time suggests that European issues may be important in some countries.

Turnout in European parliament elections: towards a European-centred model

With the 2004 European Parliament elections approaching, it is useful to consider what affects voting in these elections. This paper addresses the puzzle of declining turnout in European Parliament elections. After reviewing the influential “second order elections” explanation emphasizing domestic influences on turnout, especially Mark Franklin’s recent study stressing the importance of electoral salience factors, we develop a revised model to incorporate EU as well as domestic variables. Our model indicates that EU influences, at least on the aggregate level, may have more influence on EP elections than previously reported. Tests of our model for the first five EP elections, 1979 through 1999, find that it provides an alternative explanation of turnout similar in power to Franklin’s model. Because of changes in membership of the EU, our alternative model may be preferable for explaining future turnout variation in EU elections.

Gaps in Americans' Knowledge About the Bosnian Civil War

This study applies the knowledge gap theory to the American publics knowledge of the Bosnian civil war between September 1992—when the conflict was in its early days—through June 1995. Our goal was to determine if a knowledge gap existed in the case of the Bosnian civil war, and if so, whether it increased or decreased over time. Times Mirror Center polls clearly establish that the better educated knew more about Bosnia from September 1992 through June 1995. But people from all educational levels showed dramatic improvements in knowledge. The so-called knowledge gap declined rather than increased. Our surprising results may be due to the changing context and duration of the conflict. Attention to the Bosnia crisis increased over these 3 years, with people from all backgrounds more motivated to pay attention. In addition, the nightly network news provided frequent coverage of Bosnia. Thus, all segments of the American public learned more about the crisis.

The Things They Cared About Change and Continuity in Americans’ Attention to Different News Stories, 1989–2002

Pew Research Center polls in 1989, 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002 show that Americans pay more attention to media accounts of nonpolitical stories than those about national, international, and local politics. Although Americans’ attentiveness to political news rose between 2000 and 2002, attention to media accounts of politics remained below where it had been in 1989. For the most part, the relative rankings of attentiveness to different kinds of news stories remained the same. The authors also explore the factors that predict attention to political news.Finally,heed paid to media stories about politics appears to affect two important facets of democratic citizenship: political knowledge and participation.

American Public Opinion and the Civil War in Bosnia Attention, Knowledge, and the Media

The Bosnian civil war offers an opportunity to examine the American publics attitudes toward foreign policy problems in the post-cold war era. We use polls conducted for the Times Mirror/Pew Research Center for the People and the Press from 1992 to 1996 and indicators of media coverage of Bosnia to analyze trends in public attention to and knowledge of the conflict. As expected, events, media coverage, public attention to that coverage, and knowledge of the conflict are related. Knowledge rises over time, but the increase is greatest among the most educated. Greater knowledge also produced differing policy preferences. The more knowledgeable Americans were, the more they sympathized with the Bosnian Muslims. The relationship between knowledge and support for more aggressive U.S. options, however, was mixed. The data on Bosnia suggest that the public can become interested in foreign policy in the post-cold war era, but we cannot predict the duration of that interest.

TELEVISION “NEWS GRAZERS”: WHO THEY ARE AND WHAT THEY (DON’T) KNOW

ABSTRACT Between 1998 and 2006, a new style of television news consumption was born: “news grazing.” With remote control devices in hand, “grazers” flip through TV news channels in order to find interesting news stories. Approximately three‐fifths of the public graze, and this group tends to be younger than non‐grazers. Grazers are less likely than the rest of the public to follow “hard” news about politics and economics, and, not surprisingly, they are even less knowledgeable about public affairs than most people are.

Citizens’ knowledge and perceptions of legislatures in Canada, Britain and the United States

This study has two major parts. The first uses survey data to reveal what citizens in Britain, Canada and the United States know about their national legislatures and what factors ‐ including cognitive ability, opportunity, motivation and media exposure ‐ affect that knowledge. We find that US citizens are the least knowledgeable. The second part of the study looks at whether the level of knowledge in each country has any importance for understanding levels of public support for the national legislature. In the United States, the more knowledgeable citizens are less likely to support Congress, in sharp contrast to the tendency of knowledgeable Canadian citizens to be more supportive of their parliament. Knowledge is not a significant predictor of support in the British model. Some implications of the findings are discussed.

Americans' Knowledge of U.S. Military Deaths in Iraq, April 2004 to April 2008

Americans allegedly have an aversion to battle-related military casualties. Their estimates of military deaths may have influenced support for past U.S. military efforts. But what affects accurate estimates of military deaths in wartime? We review the accuracy of estimates for Iraq and three twentieth-century conflicts, finding that the publics estimates were more likely to be on target for Iraq. Then using five polls from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, we estimate logistic regression equations in which knowledge of military deaths is regressed on variables typically employed when scholars seek to understand the factors that affect what people know about public affairs. Gender and age always emerge as significant predictors. Education and attention to the news usually matter as well. We also show that estimates of military deaths in Iraq have palpable consequences for opinions about U.S. policies there.