Richard Streeter

Cultural adaptation, compounding vulnerabilities and conjunctures in Norse Greenland

Norse Greenland has been seen as a classic case of maladaptation by an inflexible temperate zone society extending into the arctic and collapse driven by climate change. This paper, however, recognizes the successful arctic adaptation achieved in Norse Greenland and argues that, although climate change had impacts, the end of Norse settlement can only be truly understood as a complex socioenvironmental system that includes local and interregional interactions operating at different geographic and temporal scales and recognizes the cultural limits to adaptation of traditional ecological knowledge. This paper is not focused on a single discovery and its implications, an approach that can encourage monocausal and environmentally deterministic emphasis to explanation, but it is the product of sustained international interdisciplinary investigations in Greenland and the rest of the North Atlantic. It is based on data acquisitions, reinterpretation of established knowledge, and a somewhat different philosophical approach to the question of collapse. We argue that the Norse Greenlanders created a flexible and successful subsistence system that responded effectively to major environmental challenges but probably fell victim to a combination of conjunctures of large-scale historic processes and vulnerabilities created by their successful prior response to climate change. Their failure was an inability to anticipate an unknowable future, an inability to broaden their traditional ecological knowledge base, and a case of being too specialized, too small, and too isolated to be able to capitalize on and compete in the new protoworld system extending into the North Atlantic in the early 15th century.

Climate challenges, vulnerabilities, and food security

Significance Climate-induced disasters are impacting human well-being in ever-increasing ways. Disaster research and management recognize and emphasize the need to reduce vulnerabilities, although extant policy is not in line with this realization. This paper assesses the extent to which vulnerability to food shortage, as a result of social, demographic, and resource conditions at times of climatic challenge, correlates with subsequent declines in social and food security. Extreme climate challenges are identified in the prehispanic US Southwest and historic Norse occupations of the North Atlantic Islands. Cases with such different environmental, climatic, demographic, and cultural and social traditions allow us to demonstrate a consistent relationship between vulnerability and consequent social and food security conditions, applicable in multiple contexts. This paper identifies rare climate challenges in the long-term history of seven areas, three in the subpolar North Atlantic Islands and four in the arid-to-semiarid deserts of the US Southwest. For each case, the vulnerability to food shortage before the climate challenge is quantified based on eight variables encompassing both environmental and social domains. These data are used to evaluate the relationship between the “weight” of vulnerability before a climate challenge and the nature of social change and food security following a challenge. The outcome of this work is directly applicable to debates about disaster management policy.

Plague and landscape resilience in premodern Iceland

In debates on societal collapse, Iceland occupies a position of precarious survival, defined by not becoming extinct, like Norse Greenland, but having endured, sometimes by the narrowest of margins. Classic decline narratives for late medieval to early modern Iceland stress compounding adversities, where climate, trade, political domination, unsustainable practices, and environmental degradation conspire with epidemics and volcanism to depress the Icelanders and turn the once-proud Vikings and Saga writers into one of Europes poorest nations. A mainstay of this narrative is the impact of incidental setbacks such as plague and volcanism, which are seen to have compounded and exacerbated underlying structural problems. This research shows that this view is not correct. We present a study of landscape change that uses 15 precisely dated tephra layers spanning the whole 1,200-y period of human settlement in Iceland. These tephras have provided 2,625 horizons of known age within 200 stratigraphic sections to form a high-resolution spatial and temporal record of change. This finding shows short-term (50 y) declines in geomorphological activity after two major plagues in A.D. 15th century, variations that probably mirrored variations in the population. In the longer term, the geomorphological impact of climate changes from the 14th century on is delayed, and landscapes (as well as Icelandic society) exhibit resilience over decade to century timescales. This finding is not a simple consequence of depopulation but a reflection of how Icelandic society responded with a scaling back of their economy, conservation of core functionality, and entrenchment of the established order.

The onset of the palaeoanthropocene in Iceland: Changes in complex natural systems:

Pre-industrial human impacts on the past environment are apparent in different proxy records at different times in different places. Recognizing environmentally transformative human impacts in palaeoenvironmental archives, as opposed to natural variability, is a key challenge in understanding the nature of the transition to the Earth’s current ‘Anthropocene’ condition. Here, we consider the palaeoenvironmental record for Iceland over the past 2.5 ka, both before and after the late ninth century human settlement (landnám). The Scandinavian colonization of the island was essentially abrupt, involving thousands of people over a short period. The colonization triggered extensive changes in Icelandic ecosystems and landscapes. A volcanic ash known as the Landnám tephra was deposited over most of Iceland immediately before the settlement began. The Landnám tephra layer thus provides a uniquely precise litho-chrono-stratigraphic marker of colonization. We utilize this marker horizon as an independent definition of the effective onset of the local palaeoanthropocene (which is conceptually related to, but distinct from, the global Anthropocene). This allows us to evaluate proxy records for human impact on the Icelandic environment and to assess how and when they show transformative impact. Based on this analysis, we consider the implications for understanding and defining the Anthropocene in those areas of the Earth where such a clear independent marker of the onset of significant human impacts is lacking.

Anticipating land surface change

The interplay of human actions and natural processes over varied spatial and temporal scales can result in abrupt transitions between contrasting land surface states. Understanding these transitions is a key goal of sustainability science because they can represent abrupt losses of natural capital. This paper recognizes flickering between alternate land surface states in advance of threshold change and critical slowing down in advance of both threshold changes and noncritical transformation. The early warning signals we observe are rises in autocorrelation, variance, and skewness within millimeter-resolution thickness measurements of tephra layers deposited in A.D. 2010 and A.D. 2011. These signals reflect changing patterns of surface vegetation, which are known to provide early warning signals of critical transformations. They were observed toward migrating soil erosion fronts, cryoturbation limits, and expanding deflation zones, thus providing potential early warning signals of land surface change. The record of the spatial patterning of vegetation contained in contemporary tephra layers shows how proximity to land surface change could be assessed in the widespread regions affected by shallow layers of volcanic fallout (those that can be subsumed within the existing vegetation cover). This insight shows how we could use tephra layers in the stratigraphic record to identify “near misses,” close encounters with thresholds that did not lead to tipping points, and thus provide additional tools for archaeology, sustainability science, and contemporary land management.

Reconstructing late-Holocene environmental change in Iceland using high-resolution tephrochronology

High resolution records of sediment accumulation are necessary to evaluate subtle temporal and spatial variations in sediment flux, especially in the context of decadal-scale human–environment interactions. Digital photography using consumer-grade cameras may be used to gather thousands of stratigraphic measurements to ± 1 mm (potentially equivalent to ± 2 years of accumulation) and provide data amenable to statistical manipulation. This new approach is illustrated with an evaluation of 15th century landscape change in Iceland. High resolution measurements show that apparent ‘spikes’ in accumulation after episodes of plague are an artefact of lower resolution measurements (± 2.5 mm) over decadal periods. Regional records show little change in sediment accumulation rates after the plagues but key local records made possible using this new methodology reveal that the period ad 1389–1416 (encompassing the plague outbreak of ad 1402) had some of the lowest sediment accumulation rates since settlement of the island. This new approach to landscape assessment indicates that in this pastoralist community the aftermath of human mortality rates of 50–60% saw no development of feral sheep populations or a switch to less labour-intensive wool production. The implication is that cattle production was maintained and the relative easing of landscape impacts could explain the lag between 14th century climatic deterioration and 18th century increases in landscape change.

Vegetation structure influences the retention of airfall tephra in a sub-Arctic landscape:

Vegetation cover mediates a number of important geomorphological processes. However, the effect of different vegetation types on the retention of fine aeolian sediment is poorly understood. We investigated this phenomenon, using the retention of fine, pyroclastic material (tephra) from the 2011 eruption of the Grímsvötn volcano, Iceland, as a case study. We set out to quantify structural variation in different vegetation types and to relate structural metrics to the thickness of recently deposited volcanic ash layers in the sedimentary section. We utilised a combination of vegetation and soil surveys, along with photogrammetric analysis of vegetation structure. We found that indices of plant community composition were a poor proxy for vegetation structure and were largely unrelated to tephra thickness. However, structural metrics, derived from photogrammetric analysis, were clearly related to variations in tephra layer thickness at a landscape scale and tephra layers under shrub patches were significantly thicker than those outside the shrub canopy. We therefore concluded that: a) vegetation cover was a critical factor in the retention of fine aeolian sediment for deposit depths up to few centimetres; b) structural variation in vegetation cover played a major role in determining the configuration of tephra deposits in the sedimentary section. These findings have implications for the analysis of ancient volcanic eruptions and archaeological/palaeoenvironmental reconstructions based on the interpretation of tephra deposits. Furthermore, they present the possibility that the detailed form of tephra layers may be used as a proxy for palaeo vegetation structure.

Impact of small-scale vegetation structure on tephra layer preservation

The factors that influence tephra layer taphonomy are poorly understood, but vegetation cover is likely to play a role in the preservation of terrestrial tephra deposits. The impact of vegetation on tephra layer preservation is important because: 1) the morphology of tephra layers could record key characteristics of past land surfaces and 2) vegetation-driven variability in tephra thickness could affect attempts to infer eruption and dispersion parameters. We investigated small- (metre-) scale interactions between vegetation and a thin (<10 cm), recent tephra layer. We conducted surveys of vegetation structure and tephra thickness at two locations which received a similar tephra deposit, but had contrasting vegetation cover (moss vs shrub). The tephra layer was thicker and less variable under shrub cover. Vegetation structure and layer thickness were correlated on the moss site but not under shrub cover, where the canopy reduced the influence of understory vegetation on layer morphology. Our results show that vegetation structure can influence tephra layer thickness on both small and medium (site) scales. These findings suggest that some tephra layers may carry a signal of past vegetation cover. They also have implications for the sampling effort required to reliably estimate the parameters of initial deposits.

Disequilibrium, Adaptation, and the Norse Settlement of Greenland

There is increasing evidence to suggest that arctic cultures and ecosystems have followed non-linear responses to climate change. Norse Scandinavian farmers introduced agriculture to sub-arctic Greenland in the late tenth century, creating synanthropic landscapes and utilising seasonally abundant marine and terrestrial resources. Using a niche-construction framework and data from recent survey work, studies of diet, and regional-scale climate proxies we examine the potential mismatch between this imported agricultural niche and the constraints of the environment from the tenth to the fifteenth centuries. We argue that landscape modification conformed the Norse to a Scandinavian style of agriculture throughout settlement, structuring and limiting the efficacy of seasonal hunting strategies. Recent climate data provide evidence of sustained cooling from the mid thirteenth century and climate variation from the early fifteenth century. Archaeological evidence suggests that the Norse made incremental adjustments to the changing sub-arctic environment, but were limited by cultural adaptations made in past environments.

The application of resilience concepts in palaeoecology

The concept of resilience has become increasingly important in ecological and socio-ecological literature. With its focus on the temporal behaviour of ecosystems, palaeoecology has an important role to play in developing a scientific understanding of ecological resilience. We provide a critical review of the ways in which resilience is being addressed by palaeoecologists. We review ~180 papers, identifying the definitions or conceptualisations of ‘resilience’ that they use, and analysing the ways in which palaeoecology is contributing to our understanding of ecological resilience. We identify three key areas for further development. First, the term ‘resilience’ is frequently defined too broadly to be meaningful without further qualification. In particular, palaeoecologists need to distinguish between ‘press’ vs ‘pulse’ disturbances, and ‘ecological’ vs ‘engineering’ resilience. Palaeoecologists are well placed to critically assess the extent to which these dichotomies apply in real (rather than theoretical) ecosystems, where climate and other environmental parameters are constantly changing. Second, defining a formal ‘response model’ – a statement of the anticipated relationships between proxies, disturbances and resilience properties – can help to clarify arguments, especially inferred causal links, since the difficulty of proving causation is a fundamental limitation of palaeoecology for understanding ecosystem drivers and responses. Third, there is a need for critical analysis of the role of scale in ecosystem resilience. Different palaeoenvironmental proxies are differently able to address the various temporal and spatial scales of ecological change, and these limitations, as well as methodological constraints on inherently noisy proxy data, need to be explored and addressed.