Rick Audas

The impact of managerial change on team performance in professional sports

Abstract Over a quarter-century of match-level data are used to examine the effect of managerial change on team performance in English (association) football, using ordered probit regression. On average, teams that changed their manager within-season are found to under-perform over the following 3 months. Managerial change also increases the variance of the non-systematic component of performance in the short term. The high incidence of within-season managerial change in English football may be a consequence of team owners gambling that an increased variance may help produce an improvement in performance sufficient to stave off the threat of relegation.

Luck, Effort, and Reward in an Organizational Hierarchy

Using the personnel records of a large British financial sector employer we investigate how workers respond to remuneration differences and “luck” in the promotion system. The results confirm that workers respond to larger remuneration spreads by working harder. Increased certainty in the promotion process also has this effect. There appears to be no difference between men’s and women’s reactions to promotion incentives. Gender differences in the raw data therefore appear not due to incentives. We need to look elsewhere for an explanation.

Closing the policy-practice gap in the management of child contacts of tuberculosis cases in developing countries

Philip Campbell Hill and colleagues propose using a health needs assessment framework, research tools, and a strategy for clinical evaluation to help better manage child contacts of adult TB cases.

Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches

This paper develops a new simulation-based measure of playoff uncertainty and investigates its contribution to modelling match attendance compared to other variants of playoff uncertainty in the existing literature. A model of match attendance that incorporates match uncertainty, playoff uncertainty, past home-team performance and other relevant control variables is fitted to Australian National Rugby League data for seasons 2004-2008 using fixed effects estimation. The results suggest that playoff uncertainty and home-team success are more important determinants of match attendance than match uncertainty. Alternative measures of playoff uncertainty based on points behind the leader, although more ad hoc, also appear able to capture the effects of playoff uncertainty.

Youth Unemployment and Labour Market Transitions in Hungary.

Unemployment and labour market adjustment have featured prominently in the problems of transitional economies. However, the position of young people and their transitions from school to work in these new market economies has been virtually ignored. This paper examines a new large longitudinal data set relating to young people in Hungary over the period 1994–98. Using data on each individuals labour market state over 4 years we estimate a panel econometric model that explicitly allows for duration dependence and individual unobserved heterogeneity to capture the diversity of initial conditions faced by these young people in the labour market. In modelling the education and employment decisions in the transition from school to work we find strong evidence of the importance of individuals making good initial career decisions and an enduring effect of academic achievement on labour market and education outcomes.

Absenteeism, seasonality, and the business cycle

Abstract Previous theoretical literature on malfeasance provides the basis for a theoretical model of absenteeism that incorporates both labor demand and supply side influences. This paper uses this theoretical framework as the basis for an analysis of the link between absenteeism, aggregate production and unemployment, using monthly US data for 1979–93. Tests are carried out for unit roots at seasonal and nonseasonal frequencies. Cointegration tests suggest a long run relationship consistent with the theoretical model.

Hand sanitisers for reducing illness absences in primary school children in New Zealand: a cluster randomised controlled trial study protocol

BackgroundNew Zealand has relatively high rates of morbidity and mortality from infectious disease compared with other OECD countries, with infectious disease being more prevalent in children compared with others in the population. Consequences of infectious disease in children may have significant economic and social impact beyond the direct effects of the disease on the health of the child; including absence from school, transmission of infectious disease to other pupils, staff, and family members, and time off work for parents/guardians. Reduction of the transmission of infectious disease between children at schools could be an effective way of reducing the community incidence of infectious disease. Alcohol based no-rinse hand sanitisers provide an alternative hand cleaning technology, for which there is some evidence that they may be effective in achieving this. However, very few studies have investigated the effectiveness of hand sanitisers, and importantly, the potential wider economic implications of this intervention have not been established.AimsThe primary objective of this trial is to establish if the provision of hand sanitisers in primary schools in the South Island of New Zealand, in addition to an education session on hand hygiene, reduces the incidence rate of absence episodes due to illness in children. In addition, the trial will establish the cost-effectiveness and conduct a cost-benefit analysis of the intervention in this setting.Methods/DesignA cluster randomised controlled trial will be undertaken to establish the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of hand sanitisers. Sixty-eight primary schools will be recruited from three regions in the South Island of New Zealand. The schools will be randomised, within region, to receive hand sanitisers and an education session on hand hygiene, or an education session on hand hygiene alone. Fifty pupils from each school in years 1 to 6 (generally aged from 5 to 11 years) will be randomly selected for detailed follow-up about their illness absences, providing a total of 3400 pupils. In addition, absence information will be collected on all children from the school rolls. Investigators not involved in the running of the trial, outcome assessors, and the statistician will be blinded to the group allocation until the analysis is completed.Trial registrationACTRN12609000478213

How are population-based funding formulae for healthcare composed? A comparative analysis of seven models

BackgroundPopulation-based funding formulae act as an important means of promoting equitable health funding structures. To evaluate how policy makers in different jurisdictions construct health funding formulae and build an understanding of contextual influences underpinning formula construction we carried out a comparative analysis of key components of funding formulae across seven high-income and predominantly publically financed health systems: New Zealand, England, Scotland, the Netherlands, the state of New South Wales in Australia, the Canadian province of Ontario, and the city of Stockholm, Sweden.MethodsCore components from each formula were summarised and key similarities and differences evaluated from a compositional perspective. We categorised approaches to constructing funding formulae under three main themes: identifying factors which predict differential need amongst populations; adjusting for cost factors outside of needs factors; and engaging in normative correction of allocations for ‘unmet’ need.ResultsWe found significant congruence in the factors used to guide need and cost adjustments. However, there is considerable variation in interpretation and implementation of these factors.ConclusionDespite broadly similar frameworks, there are distinct differences in the composition of the formulae across the seven health systems. Ultimately, the development of funding formulae is a dynamic process, subject to availability of data reflecting health needs, the influence of wider socio-political objectives and health system determinants.

The Effect of Mid-Season Coach Turnover on Team Performance: A Commentary

INTRODUCTION Researchers have long recognized the potential value of using sports data to estimate leadership effects. The main empirical question most seek to address is whether or not changing leaders (i.e., club managers or coaches) results in a change in club performance. As with many of the early papers in this field, Gamson and Scotch [1] focus on year-on-year changes, asking the question: Does a change in managers between seasons result in an improved performance in the following season?