Rilka Dragneva

Constraining external governance: interdependence with Russia and the CIS as limits to the EU's rule transfer in the Ukraine

The question of how effective the EUs external governance is cannot be answered without looking at the broader geographical and historical framework in which the Union extends its influence. We argue that interdependence between Ukraine and Russia in several key aspects shapes the context within which the EU and Russia compete to export their policies. Based on an analysis comparing the institutional rules underpinning the EUs external governance and the CIS rules as well as several sectoral analyses, we show that the effectiveness of external governance varies with patterns of interdependence. We identify sectoral differences in the extent of Ukraines interdependence with Russia: it is low and receding in trade; medium in foreign policy and high in energy.

Russia, the Eurasian Customs Union and the EU: Cooperation, Stagnation or Rivalry?

Until recently regional integration in the post-Soviet space had been largely declarative. However, the latest initiative, the Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) appears more viable because of: first, a better institutional framework; second, a commitment to implementation followed by actual action (despite a range of transitional problems); and, third, the introduction of a system of rules harmonised with international norms and the WTO regime. This initiative has serious implications for EU-Russia relations in general and the EU’s strategy in the post-Soviet space, i.e. the ‘shared neighbourhood’, in particular. With the ECU, Russia offers a forward-looking, advanced form of economic integration and as such an alternative to EU-centered initiatives in the post-Soviet space. Ukraine has turned into a normative battleground where Russia endeavours to dissuade Ukraine from pursuing the landmark Association Agreement with the EU, containing the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) and is striving to get Ukraine to join the ECU instead. This emerging normative rivalry requires revisiting the EU’s approach to its ‘external governance’ approach in the Eastern neighbourhood in terms of short- and long-term opportunities and challenges.

Eurasian Economic Integration

In this well-researched and detailed book, the editors provide an extensive and critical analysis of post-Soviet regional integration. After almost two decades of unfulfilled integration promises, a new – improved and functioning – regime emerged in the post-Soviet space: the Eurasian Customs Union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan (ECU).

Shaping Convergence with the EU in Foreign Policy and State Aid in Post-Orange Ukraine: Weak External Incentives, Powerful Veto Players

This essay analyses convergence with EU rules in Ukraine in two policy areas—foreign and security policy and state aid regulation. Comparing the two, we find different levels of convergence, somewhat higher in foreign policy (but slowing down after 2010) than in state aid law regulation. We explain this by analysing the presence and actions of oligarchs as veto players that have had an extensive influence on policy in the Ukrainian political system in recent years. In policy areas where convergence with EU rules negatively affects the interests of oligarchs and their political allies, we see only limited convergence with EU legislation and policies.

Bulgaria's road to the European Union: Progress, problems and perspectives

Abstract In this article we evaluate Bulgarias progress in preparing for accession to the European Union and the countrys achievements and problems related to it. Following from the examination of the most salient aspects of the relationship between Bulgaria and the EU, we argue that perceptions of the country in the West have not caught up with the recent considerable achievements in the areas of law reform, economic transformation and democratization. In doing that, we highlight the establishment of democratic and constitutional stability, the lack of ethnic conflict, and the adoption of a comprehensive legal framework for administrative reform and enhanced border control, as well as the countrys role as a factor for regional stability in the Balkans. We further argue that, in addition to the domestic progress in the fulfillment of the Copenhagen criteria, other factors, such as geopolitics, perception and advocacy, influence Bulgarias place in the current order of accession. Finally, we discuss the interaction between domestic politics and European integration as a two level game and argue that the link between the countrys transformation and its accession to the EU helps to speed up the pace of reforms but can lead to a backlash if accession is delayed indefinitely.

Commitment, asymmetry and flexibility: making sense of Eurasian economic integration: Law, Policy and Politics

In this well-researched and detailed book, the editors provide an extensive and critical analysis of post-Soviet regional integration. After almost two decades of unfulfilled integration promises, a new – improved and functioning – regime emerged in the post-Soviet space: the Eurasian Customs Union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan (ECU).

Russia's Role in Fostering the CIS Trade Regime

The CIS trade regime can be characterised as a mix of, partly overlapping, weak, bilateral, subregional, and multilateral agreements. This is a result of the design of the CIS, which was explicitly constructed to allow its member states to participate in only those parts that they deemed in their best interest and not to participate in other parts. The dissolution of the Soviet Union forced the successor states to create a trade regime. Initially, they turned to one another not to disrupt trade any more than needed. However, Russia carried most of the financial burden of the initial arrangements and started to push for bilateral agreements. The others followed this example, but were careful not to commit too much sovereignty in these agreements. At a later stage, sub-regional agreements substituted for the CIS framework as well. The CIS states remained ambivalent, however, to submit too much sovereignty, whereas Russia formally stayed out of the multilateral free trade agreements altogether. The countries did work together multilaterally and committed themselves to these agreements where it concerned specific issues. In this paper, we look for causes of the myriad of agreements in the actual economic developments. We will therefore present and discuss the major trade agreements with economic arguments. We will also briefly discuss the developments in the volume and direction of trade. Although we expect the gradual improvement of the agreements and the ‘rationalisation’ of the complex arrangement, we do not foresee a consolidated ‘hard’ multilateral framework in the short or even medium term.

EU Law Export to the Eastern Neighbourhood

This chapter examines the export of law in the EU’s external policy and the impact that the Lisbon Treaty may have on the existing formula for law export. It focuses on the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), which has centred on the intensive and extensive expansion of EU rules outside its borders. In this chapter we broaden the analysis of the EU’s external policy looking at the ENP against the global context for exporting law. We argue that, outside the accession context, the role of the EU in its neighbourhood is not dissimilar from that of other global actors—states or international organisations, which have promoted rules and norms to third countries for the purpose of development. We discuss the ENP law export formula against some key features of international experience, especially the factors behind effective legal transplantation. No doubt, the EU has sought to incorporate many of the lessons of exporting legal reform in the 1990s. Nevertheless, the question remains as to whether in its policy towards the neighbours the EU has moved from a paradigm based on compliance with EU law to one where ‘demand for law’ and political economy of legal reforms are sufficiently factored in. We argue that the Lisbon Treaty will not obliterate the essential contradictions and tensions underlying the EU’s policy towards its neighbours. However, it may still help to foster demand-driven, pragmatic law export formula more closely tailored to partners’ capacities and needs, in line with international experience of legal transplants.

Patterns of Integration and Regime Compatibility: Ukraine Between the CIS and the EU

Ukraine’s history and geopolitical position seem to define its destiny of a state that needs to maintain a difficult balancing act between Russia and the West. Yet, after the Orange revolution in 2004, the possibility of European Union membership for Ukraine has emerged. While in the past Ukraine’s European choice has been more of a declared, symbolic wish of the Ukrainian authorities counterweighted by the hard reality of the country’s close proximity and ties with Moscow, the new impetus for democratic reforms provided by the election of President Viktor Yushchenko could potentially change the precarious balance of Ukraine’s foreign relations and economic orientation. Since his election in December 2004, President Yushchenko has made numerous moves towards a rapid start of negotiations with the EU. Leaving aside how realistic such a scenario is given the EU’s new cautious stance on enlargement, we anticipate that any progress towards starting enlargement negotiations would put Ukraine into a different regime, that of adopting the rules of a closely-knit multilevel system of governance, such as the EU. This change to a different type of governance has serious potential to create incompatibilities with existing regimes with Russia at the centre, in which Ukraine participates. Indeed, perceptions of incompatibility between a pro-Russian and pro-Western orientation of Ukraine in general, and its membership (or other form of enhanced cooperation) in the EU as well as in the Commonwealth of Independent States (hereinafter, ‘the CIS’), in particular, have already been revealed by policy makers both in the East and in the West.

Between Dependence and Integration: Ukraine’s Relations With Russia

Abstract Ukraine’s policy towards Russia since independence in 1991 has been characterised by a predicament: how to preserve its statehood in the context of its heavy economic dependence on Russia, which was intent on Ukraine’s participation in Russian-led integration projects. In this essay we argue that only by understanding the complexities and seeming contradictions in Ukraine’s positioning vis-à-vis Russia can a full understanding of Ukraine’s commitment to Russia’s integration projects be attained. This essay systematically examines Ukraine’s responses to Russia’s initiatives and illuminates the strategy of the Ukrainian elites to extract economic benefits while minimising commitments.