Risto Herrala

Household loan loss risk in Finland – estimations and simulations with micro data

This discussion paper presents a microsimulation model of household distress. We use logit analysis to estimate the extent to which a households risk of being financially distressed depends on net income after tax and loan servicing costs. The impact of assumed macroeconomic shocks on this net income concept is calculated at the household level. The microsimulation model is used to simulate both the number of distressed households and their aggregate debt in various macroeconomic scenarios. The simulations indicate that household credit risks to banks are relatively well contained. JEL classification numbers: D14, G21, E47, R29 Key words: financial stability, indebtedness, micro simulations, households

The Influence of Bank Ownership on Credit Supply: Evidence from the Recent Financial Crisis

This study examines how bank ownership influenced the credit supply during the recent financial crisis in Russia, where the banking sector consists of a mix of state-controlled banks, foreign-owned banks, and domestic private banks. To estimate credit supply changes, we apply an original approach based on stochastic frontier analysis. We use quarterly data for Russian banks covering the period from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2009. Our findings suggest that bank ownership affected credit supply during the financial crisis and that the crisis led to an overall decrease in the credit supply. Relative to domestic private banks foreign-owned banks reduced their credit supply more and state-controlled banks less. This supports the hypothesis that foreign banks have a “lack of loyalty” to domestic actors during a crisis, as well as the view that an objective function of state-controlled banks leads them to support the economy during economic downturns.

Credit Crunch? An Empirical Test of Cyclical Credit Policy

In this paper we test the hypothesis that credit policies are pro-cyclical. Our approach is based on a stochastic frontier analysis of borrower data, as in Chen and Wang (2008). We extend the applicability of the approach, and propose a novel test specification which is informative of many types of pro-cyclicality. The analysis of representative samples of household borrowers during a huge cycle and its aftermath yields evidence of time-varying credit policy. We find that the focus of credit policy changed from collateral to current income during the cycle. Instead of a credit crunch, ie, an overall tightening of credit during the economic and financial contraction, we find a tightening of credit limits with respect to a minority of borrowers and an easing for the majority. In the course of the post-crisis period, credit policy became more lenient. Both the level of credit limits and the ‘tailoring’ of limits to group-specific characteristics of households increased. A reduction in the idiosyncratic variance of limits suggest that banks have become more consistent in their credit policies.

Has the Chinese Growth Model Changed? A View from the Credit Market

A cornerstone of the Chinese growth model has been the opening up of its economy to private competition. Some observers claim that China has changed course since joining the WTO by increasingly promoting state capitalism , the large State Owned Enterprises, thereby compromising a growth model that has served it well. Due to the opaqueness of the Chinese system, even such a major shift in policy has been difficult to verify. We are able to look inside the covert policy process by studying the credit supply to Chinese listed companies, the drivers of the growth miracle, of the past decade. The econometric analysis corroborates the policy shift: we find a significant improvement in credit supply conditions of government firms relative to other firms during the latter part of the decade. The estimations also provide evidence of other major trends in credit supply that reflect the Chinese government s policy objectives.

Credit Constraints, Political Instability, and Capital Accumulation

We investigate the complex interactions between credit constraints, political instability, and capital accumulation using a novel approach based on Kiyotaki and Moore’s (1997) theoretical framework. Drawing on a unique firm-level data set from Middle-East and North Africa (MENA), empirical findings point to a large and significant effect of credit conditions on capital accumulation and suggest that continued political unrest worsens credit constraints. The results support the view that financial development measured by a relaxing of financial constraints is key to macroeconomic development.

Credit Constraints and Durable Consumption

I find quantitative evidence of a significant effect for credit constraints on durable consumption during a post-deregulation consumer spending spree. The effect varied markedly across age and educational groups. Young households with low levels of education displayed high sensitivity to credit conditions. In contrast, older highly educated households were relatively immune to credit market developments.

Credit Conditions and Firm Investment: Evidence from the MENA Region

The Arab Spring is a clear indicator of the urgency of achieving inclusive growth and ensuring job creation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where private sector development is still hindered by limited access to credit. Following Kiyotaki and Moores (1997) seminal model, we apply a novel methodological approach to a unique data set of MENA firms to estimate credit limits and their impacts on capital accumulation. Notably, we find higher credit limits in countries where the Arab Spring erupted than in other MENA countries and that their marginal effect on capital accumulation has been statistically and economically significant.

The Rigidity Bias

We study the basic economic problem of choice between long-term and short-term commitments under a general characterization of uncertainty (aggregate uncertainty). When contingencies are contractible, a perfect market of Arrow-Debreau contingent claims implements the social optimum. When contingencies are not contractible, long-term commitments receive too much weight in individual portfolios. The economy as a whole is too rigid during periods of high aggregate shocks. The model links a rigidity bias with the operation of the price mechanism and the monetary system.