Rita De Siano

Club convergence in European regions

This study investigates the ‘club convergence’ hypothesis applying the stochastic notion of convergence to groups of European regions. In order to avoid the group selection bias problem, the innovative regression tree technique was applied to select endogenously the most important variables in achieving the best identification of groups on the base of per capita income and productive specialization. Tests on stochastic convergence in each group evidences a strong convergence among the wealthiest regions of the European Union and a trend of weak convergence among the remaining groups, confirming Baumols hypothesis of convergence.

Time series approaches to Italian regional convergence

This article investigates the evolution of the gap between Italian regions and Italy as a whole during the period of 1980 to 2007. We tested for the presence of the stochastic and β-convergence hypotheses using different time series approaches. The former was studied, first, for the entire sample period and then, with an exogenous instantaneous break in the series. The presence of β-convergence, instead, was estimated considering a known and an unknown trend break date model. Our results show that most of the regions do not converge in an ‘actual’ way, since they do not present a stochastic and β-convergence simultaneously.

Migration Flows, Structural Change and Growth Convergence: A Panel Data Analysis of the Italian Regions

The aim of this paper is to measure the impact of migration flows on growth via their effect on structural change. To this extent we build an empirical growth model in which migration flows and intersectoral wage differentials can affect the speed of labour readjustment between sectors and, ultimately, total factor productivity and growth. By employing Italian regional data stemming over more than four decades we measure the effects of interregional migration on regional growth and convergence. The results confirm that migration in general, and in particular the content of human capital of moving workers, is a relevant factor in determining the speed of technological change and growth.

Specializzazione e crescita: un’applicazione alle regioni dell’Unione Monetaria Europea

The aim of this work is the identification and the description of groups of regions belonging to eight European countries in order to evaluate the role of productive specialization in determining regional income growth. The novelty of the study is the application of a new methodology, the Classification and Regression Tree Analysis. The results show that initial specialization in manufacturing (machinery and metal products) and services (credit and transport) is crucial for local growth and suggest the existence of multiple clubs of regions, each characterized by a specific specialization model and growth trend.

Fiscal decentralization and spillover effects of local government public spending: the case of Italy

ABSTRACT Fiscal decentralization and spillover effects of local government public spending: the case of Italy. Regional Studies. This paper investigates the presence of spatial interdependencies in the regional public expenditure decision process and the impact of fiscal decentralization on its determinants. The analysis refers to the constitutional reform concluded in Italy in 2001 that redefined the legislative powers of the regions and their sectoral competence. The results highlight the opportunistic behaviour of regional governments in sectors where they can benefit from neighbours’ public expenditure spillovers. Other findings comprise the presence of congestion and mobility effects, a shift in demand to the private sector, except for education, and the mobility of individuals towards richer regions.

Population Dynamics and Regional Social Security Sustainability in Italy

Bonasia M. and De Siano R. Population dynamics and regional social security sustainability in Italy, Regional Studies. Making due allowances for differences in demographics, the labour market and internal migration dynamics, this study analyses the sustainability of the Italian pension balance at a regional level. A worsening of the elderly dependency ratio and a decline in birth and employment rates have generated a negative trend, particularly for regions in southern Italy, characterized by early retirement and an increase in migration outflows. The suggestion is that a decentralized pension policy is not a Pareto-efficient solution because it would favour the sustainability of the pension balance in northern regions over those in the South.