Rizaldi Boer

Spatial coherence and seasonal predictability of monsoon onset over Indonesia.

Abstract The seasonal potential predictability of monsoon onset during the August–December season over Indonesia is studied through analysis of the spatial coherence of daily station rainfall and gridded pentad precipitation data from 1979 to 2005. The onset date, defined using a local agronomic definition, exhibits a seasonal northwest-to-southeast progression from northern and central Sumatra (late August) to Timor (mid-December). South of the equator, interannual variability of the onset date is shown to consist of a spatially coherent large-scale component, together with local-scale noise. The high spatial coherence of onset is similar to that of the September–December seasonal total, while postonset amounts averaged over 15–90 days and September–December amount residuals from large-scale onset show much less spatial coherence, especially across the main islands of monsoonal Indonesia. The cumulative rainfall anomalies exhibit also their largest amplitudes before or near the onset date. This implies t...

Carbon mitigation potential and costs of forestry options in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines and Tanzania

This paper summarizes studies of carbon (C) mitigation potential and costs of about 40 forestry options in seven developing countries. Each study uses the same methodological approach – Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP) – to estimate the above parameters between 2000 and 2030. The approach requires the projection of baseline and mitigation land-use scenarios. Coupled with data on a per ha basis on C sequestration or avoidance, and costs and benefits, it allows the estimation of monetary benefit per Mg C, and the total costs and carbon potential. The results show that about half (3.0 Pg C) the cumulative mitigation potential of 6.2 Petagram (Pg) C between 2000 and 2030 in the seven countries (about 200× 106 Mg C yr-1) could be achieved at a negative cost and the remainder at costs ranging up to

Economic Assessment of Mitigation Options for Enhancing and Maintaining Carbon Sink Capacity in Indonesia

100 Mg C-1. About 5 Pg C could be achieved, at a cost less than

Hydrologic Balance of Citarum Watershed under Current and Future Climate

20 per Mg C. Negative cost potential indicates that non-carbon revenue is sufficient to offset direct costs of these options. The achievable potential is likely to be smaller, however, due to market, institutional, and sociocultural barriers that can delay or prevent the implementation of the analyzed options.

Forest and Land Fires Hazard Level Modeling: Case study of Kapuas, Central Kalimantan

Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) projects may becomeeligible under Article 12 of the United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocols Clean DevelopmentMechanism (CDM). Some of the issues, which need to be addressed,include identifying the types of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation activitiesin LULUCF, which could be undertaken as CDM projects. Other issuesinvolve evaluating the mitigation potential and cost effectiveness of theactivities, as well as their likely socio-economic impacts and their influenceon the national carbon (C) stock. Three broad categories of mitigationactivities in LULUCF analyzed in this study include managing Cstorage, C conservation and carbon substitution. The C intensityof the activities was estimated to range from 37 to 218 Mg C per ha. The highest is in reforested land with slow growing species and the lowestin short-rotation plantations. At a real discount rate of 10%, investmentcosts required to implement the mitigation activities ranged from US

Prediksi Awal Musim Hujan di Jawa Menggunakan Data Luaran Regional Climate Model Version 3.1 (RegCM3)

0.07 to 0.88 per Mg C, with life cycle costs ranging from US

An Assessment of Indonesia’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

0.07to 3.87 per Mg C, and benefits ranging from US

Low-Carbon City Scenarios for DKI Jakarta Towards 2030

–0.81 to 6.57 perMg C. Mitigation options with negative benefits are forest protection,reforestation, reduced impact logging and enhanced natural regeneration,while those with positive benefits are short rotation timber plantation, andbio-energy. Reforestation gave negative benefit since no revenue fromwood as trees are left in the forest for conservation, while Reduced ImpactLogging (RIL) and Enhanced Natural Regeneration (ENR)gave negative benefits because additional cost required to implement theoptions could not be compensated by the increase in round-hardwoodyield. Other factor is that the local price of round-hardwood is very low,i.e. US

Potential of Reducing GHG Emission from REDD+ Activities in Indonesia

160 per m3, while FOB price is between 250–400 US

Towards Anticipatory Management of Peat Fires to Enhance Local Resilience and Reduce Natural Capital Depletion

per m3. Total area available for implementing mitigationoptions (planting trees) in 1997 was 31 million hectares (× 106ha) (about 40% are critical lands, 35% grasslands and 25%unproductive lands).Total area being considered for implementing the options under baseline,government-plans and mitigation scenarios in the period 2000–2030 is12.6, 16.3 and 23.6 × 106 ha respectively. Furthermore, total area of production forest being considered for implementing reduced impactlogging and enrichment planting under the tree scenarios is 9, 26 and 16 × 106 ha respectively, and that for forest protection is 2.1, 3.7, 3.1× 106 ha respectively. The cumulative investment for implementingall mitigation activities in the three scenarios was estimated at 595, 892and 1026 million US