Rob Slotow

Density-Dependent Natal Dispersal Patterns in a Leopard Population Recovering from Over-Harvest

Natal dispersal enables population connectivity, gene flow and metapopulation dynamics. In polygynous mammals, dispersal is typically male-biased. Classically, the ‘mate competition’, ‘resource competition’ and ‘resident fitness’ hypotheses predict density-dependent dispersal patterns, while the ‘inbreeding avoidance’ hypothesis posits density-independent dispersal. In a leopard (Panthera pardus) population recovering from over-harvest, we investigated the effect of sex, population density and prey biomass, on age of natal dispersal, distance dispersed, probability of emigration and dispersal success. Over an 11-year period, we tracked 35 subadult leopards using VHF and GPS telemetry. Subadult leopards initiated dispersal at 13.6 ± 0.4 months. Age at commencement of dispersal was positively density-dependent. Although males (11.0 ± 2.5 km) generally dispersed further than females (2.7 ± 0.4 km), some males exhibited opportunistic philopatry when the population was below capacity. All 13 females were philopatric, while 12 of 22 males emigrated. Male dispersal distance and emigration probability followed a quadratic relationship with population density, whereas female dispersal distance was inversely density-dependent. Eight of 12 known-fate females and 5 of 12 known-fate male leopards were successful in settling. Dispersal success did not vary with population density, prey biomass, and for males, neither between dispersal strategies (philopatry vs. emigration). Females formed matrilineal kin clusters, supporting the resident fitness hypothesis. Conversely, mate competition appeared the main driver for male leopard dispersal. We demonstrate that dispersal patterns changed over time, i.e. as the leopard population density increased. We conclude that conservation interventions that facilitated local demographic recovery in the study area also restored dispersal patterns disrupted by unsustainable harvesting, and that this indirectly improved connectivity among leopard populations over a larger landscape.

Green environment and incident depression in South Africa: a geospatial analysis and mental health implications in a resource-limited setting

Summary Background Unprecedented levels of habitat transformation and rapid urbanisation are changing the way individuals interrelate with the natural environment in developing countries with high economic disparities. Although the potential benefit of green environments for mental health has been recognised, population-level evidence to this effect is scarce. We investigated the effect of green living environment in potentially countering incident depression in a nationally representative survey in South Africa. Methods We used panel data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (SA-NIDS). Our study used SA-NIDS data from three waves: wave 1 (2008), wave 2 (2010), and wave 3 (2012). Households were sampled on the basis of a stratified two-stage cluster design. In the first stage, 400 primary sampling units were selected for inclusion. In the second stage, two clusters of 12 dwelling units each were drawn from within each primary sampling unit (or 24 dwelling units per unit). Household and individual adult questionnaires were administered to participants. The main outcome, incident depression (ie, incident cohort of 11 156 study participants without significant depression symptoms at their first entry into SA-NIDS), was assessed in the adult survey via a ten item version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale; a total score of ten or higher was used as a cutoff to indicate significant depressive symptoms. Each participant was assigned a value for green living space via a satellite-derived normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) based on the GPS coordinates of their household location. Findings Overall, we found uneven benefit of NDVI on incident depression among our study participants. Although the green living environment showed limited benefit across the study population as a whole, our final analysis based on logistic regression models showed that higher NDVI was a predictor of lower incident depression among middle-income compared with low-income participants (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·98, 0·97–0·99, p<0·0001), although when this analysis was broken down by race, its positive effect was particularly evident amongst African individuals. Living in rural areas was linked to lower odds of incident depression (aOR 0·71, 0·55–0·92, p=0·011) compared with study participants residing in urban informal areas that often lack formal planning. Interpretation Our results imply the importance of green environments for mental wellbeing in sub-Saharan African settings experiencing rapid urbanisation, economic and epidemiological transition, reaffirming the need to incorporate environmental services and benefits for sustainable socioeconomic development. Funding South African Medical Research Council, National Institutes of Health, and Academy of Finland.

Social media reveal that charismatic species are not the main attractor of ecotourists to sub-Saharan protected areas

Charismatic megafauna are arguably considered the primary attractor of ecotourists to sub-Saharan African protected areas. However, the lack of visitation data across the whole continent has thus far prevented the investigation of whether charismatic species are indeed a key attractor of ecotourists to protected areas. Social media data can now be used for this purpose. We mined data from Instagram, and used generalized linear models with site- and country-level deviations to explore which socio-economic, geographical and biological factors explain social media use in sub-Saharan African protected areas. We found that charismatic species richness did not explain social media usage. On the other hand, protected areas that were more accessible, had sparser vegetation, where human population density was higher, and that were located in wealthier countries, had higher social media use. Interestingly, protected areas with lower richness in non-charismatic species had more users. Overall, our results suggest that more factors than simply charismatic species might explain attractiveness of protected areas, and call for more in-depth content analysis of the posts. With African countries projected to develop further in the near-future, more social media data will become available, and could be used to inform protected area management and marketing.

Cats, connectivity and conservation: incorporating data sets and integrating scales for wildlife management

Understanding resource selection and quantifying habitat connectivity are fundamental to conservation planning for both land-use and species management plans. However, datasets available to management authorities for resource selection and connectivity analyses are often highly limited and fragmentary. As a result, measuring connectivity is challenging, and often poorly integrated within conservation planning and wildlife management. To exacerbate the challenge, scale-dependent resource use makes inference across scales problematic, resource use is often modelled in areas where the species is not present, and connectivity is typically measured using a source-to-sink approach, erroneously assuming animals possess predefined destinations. Here, we used a large carnivore, the leopard Panthera pardus, to characterise resource use and landscape connectivity across a vast, biodiverse region of southern Africa. Using a range of datasets to counter data deficiencies inherent in carnivore management, we overcame methodological limitations by employing occupancy modelling and resource selection functions across three orders of selection, and estimated landscape-scale habitat connectivity – independent of a priori source and sink locations – using circuit theory. We evaluated whether occupancy modelling on its own was capable of accurately informing habitat connectivity, and identified conservation priorities necessary for applied management. We detected markedly different scale-dependent relationships across all selection orders. Our multi-data, multi-scale approach accurately predicted resource use across multiple scales and demonstrates how management authorities can more suitably utilise fragmentary datasets. We further developed an unbiased landscape-scale depiction of habitat connectivity, and identified key linkages in need of targeted management. We did not find support for the use of occupancy modelling as a proxy for landscape-scale habitat connectivity and further caution its use within a management context. Synthesis and applications. Maintaining habitat connectivity remains a fundamental component of wildlife management and conservation, yet data to inform these biological and ecological processes are often scarce. We present a robust approach that incorporates multi-scale fragmentary datasets (e.g. mortality data, permit data, sightings data), routinely collected by management authorities, to inform wildlife management and land-use planning. We recommend that management authorities employ a multi-data, multi-scale connectivity approach—as we present here—to identify management units at risk of low connectivity.

The influence of socioeconomic factors on the densities of high-value cross-border species, the African elephant

Unprecedented poaching levels triggered by demand for ivory in Far East Asia are threatening the persistence of African elephant Loxodonta africana. Southern African countries make an important contribution to elephant conservation and could soon become the last stronghold of elephant conservation in Africa. While the ecological factors affecting elephant distribution and densities have extensively been accounted for, there is a need to understand which socioeconomic factors affect elephant numbers in order to prevent conflict over limited space and resources with humans. We used elephant count data from aerial surveys for seven years in a generalized linear model, which accounted for temporal correlation, to investigate the effect of six socioeconomic and ecological variables on the number of elephant at the country level in the Greater Mapungubwe Transfrontier Conservation Area (GMTFCA). Important factors in predicting elephant numbers were the proportion of total land surface under cultivation, human population density and the number of tourists visiting the country. Specifically, elephant numbers were higher where the proportion of total land surface under cultivation was the lowest; where population density was the lowest and where tourist numbers had increased over the years. Our results confirm that human disturbance is affecting elephant numbers, but highlight that the benefits provided by ecotourism could help enhance elephant conservation. While future studies should include larger areas and more detailed data at the site level, we stress that the development of coordinated legislation and policies to improve land-use planning are needed to reduce the impact of increasing human populations and agriculture on elephant.

Change in Mesoherbivore Browsing Is Mediated by Elephant and Hillslope Position.

Elephant are considered major drivers of ecosystems, but their effects within small-scale landscape features and on other herbivores still remain unclear. Elephant impact on vegetation has been widely studied in areas where elephant have been present for many years. We therefore examined the combined effect of short-term elephant presence (< 4 years) and hillslope position on tree species assemblages, resource availability, browsing intensity and soil properties. Short-term elephant presence did not affect woody species assemblages, but did affect height distribution, with greater sapling densities in elephant access areas. Overall tree and stem densities were also not affected by elephant. By contrast, slope position affected woody species assemblages, but not height distributions and densities. Variation in species assemblages was statistically best explained by levels of total cations, Zinc, sand and clay. Although elephant and mesoherbivore browsing intensities were unaffected by slope position, we found lower mesoherbivore browsing intensity on crests with high elephant browsing intensity. Thus, elephant appear to indirectly facilitate the survival of saplings, via the displacement of mesoherbivores, providing a window of opportunity for saplings to grow into taller trees. In the short-term, effects of elephant can be minor and in the opposite direction of expectation. In addition, such behavioural displacement promotes recruitment of saplings into larger height classes. The interaction between slope position and elephant effect found here is in contrast with other studies, and illustrates the importance of examining ecosystem complexity as a function of variation in species presence and topography. The absence of a direct effect of elephant on vegetation, but the presence of an effect on mesoherbivore browsing, is relevant for conservation areas especially where both herbivore groups are actively managed.

Restoration planning for climate change mitigation and adaptation in the city of Durban, South Africa

ABSTRACT Effective planning of a large-scale restoration project is challenging, because of the range of factors that need to be considered (e.g. restoration of multiple habitats with varying degradation levels, multiple restoration goals and limited conservation resources). Ecological restoration planning studies typically focus on biodiversity and ecosystem services, rather than employment and other co-benefits. Robust Offsetting (RobOff), a restoration planning tool, was used in a forest restoration project in Durban, South Africa, to plan forest restoration considering a mosaic of habitats with varying levels of degradation, diverse restoration actions, a limited budget and multiple (biodiversity, carbon stock and employment) goals. To achieve this, the restoration action currently being implemented (= current action) was compared to three restoration alternatives. The three restoration alternatives included (1) natural regeneration action; (2) carbon action; and (3) biodiversity action. The results supported biodiversity action as most beneficial in terms of maximizing biodiversity, carbon storage and job creation. Results showed that investing in biodiversity action is preferable to the status quo. RobOff ensured optimal allocation of limited resources to actions and habitats that have a potential to achieve higher biodiversity, carbon storage and job creation.