Robert A. Cheke

Models for integrated pest control and their biological implications

Successful integrated pest management (IPM) control programmes depend on many factors which include host-parasitoid ratios, starting densities, timings of parasitoid releases, dosages and timings of insecticide applications and levels of host-feeding and parasitism. Mathematical models can help us to clarify and predict the effects of such factors on the stability of host-parasitoid systems, which we illustrate here by extending the classical continuous and discrete host-parasitoid models to include an IPM control programme. The results indicate that one of three control methods can maintain the host level below the economic threshold (ET) in relation to different ET levels, initial densities of host and parasitoid populations and host-parasitoid ratios. The effects of host intrinsic growth rate and parasitoid searching efficiency on host mean outbreak period can be calculated numerically from the models presented. The instantaneous pest killing rate of an insecticide application is also estimated from the models. The results imply that the modelling methods described can help in the design of appropriate control strategies and assist management decision-making. The results also indicate that a high initial density of parasitoids (such as in inundative releases) and high parasitoid inter-generational survival rates will lead to more frequent host outbreaks and, therefore, greater economic damage. The biological implications of this counter intuitive result are discussed.

Evolution, epidemiology, and population genetics of black flies (Diptera: Simuliidae)

More than 2000 species of black flies feed on vertebrate blood; 1.5% of all species are vectors of pathogens that cause human diseases. Of nine simuliid-borne animal diseases, only two, mansonellosis and onchocerciasis, afflict humans. Onchocerciasis is a debilitating disease infecting an estimated 40 million people in Africa, Latin America, and Yemen, whereas mansonellosis is a mild disease in the Neotropics. Cytogenetic studies of natural populations of more than 500 species of black flies have revealed that the classic morphospecies of taxonomists is typically a complex of two or more reproductively isolated entities, or sibling (cryptic) species. Most vectors of human pathogens are sibling species, each ecologically unique in traits such as breeding habitats, dispersal capabilities, and degree of vector competence. We review the evolution of black flies, the cytogenetics that have revealed about 260 cytologically distinct entities, the molecular studies that continue to expose additional hidden biodiversity, and a case study of the epidemiology of the Simulium damnosum complex, the largest species complex of blood-feeding arthropods on Earth and the premier group of black flies responsible for human onchocerciasis.

Optimum timing for integrated pest management: modelling rates of pesticide application and natural enemy releases.

Many factors including pest natural enemy ratios, starting densities, timings of natural enemy releases, dosages and timings of insecticide applications and instantaneous killing rates of pesticides on both pests and natural enemies can affect the success of IPM control programmes. To address how such factors influence successful pest control, hybrid impulsive pest-natural enemy models with different frequencies of pesticide sprays and natural enemy releases were proposed and analyzed. With releasing both more or less frequent than the sprays, a stability threshold condition for a pest eradication periodic solution is provided. Moreover, the effects of times of spraying pesticides (or releasing natural enemies) and control tactics on the threshold condition were investigated with regard to the extent of depression or resurgence resulting from pulses of pesticide applications. Multiple attractors from which the pest population oscillates with different amplitudes can coexist for a wide range of parameters and the switch-like transitions among these attractors showed that varying dosages and frequencies of insecticide applications and the numbers of natural enemies released are crucial. To see how the pesticide applications could be reduced, we developed a model involving periodic releases of natural enemies with chemical control applied only when the densities of the pest reached the given Economic Threshold. The results indicate that the pest outbreak period or frequency largely depends on the initial densities and the control tactics.

Multiple attractors of host-parasitoid models with integrated pest management strategies: eradication, persistence and outbreak

Host-parasitoid models including integrated pest management (IPM) interventions with impulsive effects at both fixed and unfixed times were analyzed with regard to host-eradication, host-parasitoid persistence and host-outbreak solutions. The host-eradication periodic solution with fixed moments is globally stable if the hosts intrinsic growth rate is less than the summation of the mean host-killing rate and the mean parasitization rate during the impulsive period. Solutions for all three categories can coexist, with switch-like transitions among their attractors showing that varying dosages and frequencies of insecticide applications and the numbers of parasitoids released are crucial. Periodic solutions also exist for models with unfixed moments for which the maximum amplitude of the host is less than the economic threshold. The dosages and frequencies of IPM interventions for these solutions are much reduced in comparison with the pest-eradication periodic solution. Our results, which are robust to inclusion of stochastic effects and with a wide range of parameter values, confirm that IPM is more effective than any single control tactic.

Sliding Bifurcations of Filippov Two Stage Pest Control Models with Economic Thresholds

In order to control pests, a specific management strategy called the threshold policy is proposed, which can be described by Filippov systems (or piecewise smooth systems). The aim of this work is to investigate a variety of bifurcation phenomena of the equilibria and sliding cycles of Filippov two stage structured population models with density dependent per capita birth rates and transition rates from the juvenile class into the adult class. It is shown that interadult competition alone can give rise to multiple sliding segments and multiple pseudoequilibria, whilst interadult and interjuvenile competition together can result in rich sliding bifurcations. As the threshold value varies, local sliding bifurcations including boundary node (saddle), tangency, and pseudo--saddle-node bifurcations occur sequentially, and global sliding bifurcations including buckling bifurcations of the sliding cycles, sliding crossing bifurcations, and pseudohomoclinic bifurcations can be present. Threshold policy control ha...

Characterisation of nuclear ribosomal DNA sequences from Onchocerca volvulus and Mansonella ozzardi (Nematoda: Filarioidea) and development of a PCR-based method for their detection in skin biopsies☆

The internal transcribed spacer region (ITS1, 5.8S gene and ITS2) of the two filarial nematodes Onchocerca volvulus and Mansonella ozzardi was sequenced, and two species-specific primers designed in the ITS2 to develop a PCR-based method for their specific detection and differentiation. When used with a universal reverse primer, the two species-specific primers gave amplification products of different size, which were readily separated in an agarose gel. The PCR was tested on skin biopsies from 51 people from three localities in Brazil where M. ozzardi is present, and results have been compared with those of parasitological examination of blood. The species-specific PCR gave a higher percentage of detection of infection by M. ozzardi than the parasitological examination of blood. No infection with O. volvulus was detected by PCR. This PCR-based assay may assist in determining the nature of infection in areas where both filarial species exist in sympatry.

Molecular systematics of five Onchocerca species (Nematoda: Filarioidea) including the human parasite, O. volvulus, suggest sympatric speciation

The genus Onchocerca (Nematoda: Filarioidea) consists of parasites of ungulate mammals with the exception of O. volvulus, which is a human parasite. The relationship between O. volvulus, O. ochengi and O. gibsoni remains unresolved. Based on morphology of the microfilariae and infective larvae, vector transmission and geographical distribution, O. ochengi and O. volvulus have been placed as sister species. Nevertheless, the cuticle morphology and chromosomal data (O. volvulus and O. gibsoni have n=4 while O. ochengi is n=5) suggest that O. gibsoni could be more closely related to O. volvulus than O. ochengi. Sequences from the 12S rRNA, 16S rRNA and ND5 mitochondrial genes have been used to reconstruct the phylogeny of five Onchocerca species including O. volvulus. Analyses with maximum likelihood and maximum parsimony showed that O. ochengi is the sister species of O. volvulus, in accordance with the classification based on morphology and geographical location. The separate specific status of the species O. gutturosa and O. lienalis was supported, although their phylogenetic relationship was not well resolved. The analyses indicated that the basal species was O. gibsoni, a South-East Asian and Australasian species, but this result was not statistically significant. The possible involvement of sympatric speciation in the evolution of this group of parasites is discussed.

Complex dynamics of desert locust plagues

Abstract. 1. Spectral analysis of 66 years of locust swarm abundance data failed to reveal any significant cycles although the dominant cycle detected in a de‐trended series, adjusted to take account of a significant partial autocorrelation for a lag of 1 year, had a periodicity of 16 years.

The fecundity of Simulium damnosum s.l. in northern Togo and infections with Onchocerca spp.

The numbers of maturing oocytes in gravid Simulium damnosum s.l. were related to the sizes of the flies and when this was taken into account the numbers fell into two groups. It was concluded that the group with the highest oocyte counts were nulliparous and that the remainder were parous flies. No evidence was found to suggest that flies in their third or subsequent gonotrophic cycles matured fewer oocytes than those in their second cycles. However, the results did suggest reduced fecundity of those flies infected with Onchocerca spp. The frequency distributions of the Onchocerca spp. infections for each of three different stages can be fitted to negative binomial distributions with similar values (0·04–0·07) for the parameter k.

Threshold conditions for integrated pest management models with pesticides that have residual effects

Impulsive differential equations (hybrid dynamical systems) can provide a natural description of pulse-like actions such as when a pesticide kills a pest instantly. However, pesticides may have long-term residual effects, with some remaining active against pests for several weeks, months or years. Therefore, a more realistic method for modelling chemical control in such cases is to use continuous or piecewise-continuous periodic functions which affect growth rates. How to evaluate the effects of the duration of the pesticide residual effectiveness on successful pest control is key to the implementation of integrated pest management (IPM) in practice. To address these questions in detail, we have modelled IPM including residual effects of pesticides in terms of fixed pulse-type actions. The stability threshold conditions for pest eradication are given. Moreover, effects of the killing efficiency rate and the decay rate of the pesticide on the pest and on its natural enemies, the duration of residual effectiveness, the number of pesticide applications and the number of natural enemy releases on the threshold conditions are investigated with regard to the extent of depression or resurgence resulting from pulses of pesticide applications and predator releases. Latin Hypercube Sampling/Partial Rank Correlation uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques are employed to investigate the key control parameters which are most significantly related to threshold values. The findings combined with Volterra’s principle confirm that when the pesticide has a strong effect on the natural enemies, repeated use of the same pesticide can result in target pest resurgence. The results also indicate that there exists an optimal number of pesticide applications which can suppress the pest most effectively, and this may help in the design of an optimal control strategy.