Robert A. Johnston

From Land marks to Landscapes: A Review of Current Practices in the Transfer of Development Rights

Abstract This article reviews the concept and history of transfer of development rights (TDR). TDR is increasingly seen as a useful method of preserving open space that reduces the exposure to takings claims. We closely examine four successful, current, rural programs and the structural and political differences among them. The article analyzes the use of dual versus single areas for sending and receiving credits, and zoning-based versus permit-based transfers. It also discusses how jurisdictions can incorporate various characteristics of these programs when developing their own.

UPlan: A Versatile Urban Growth Model for Transportation Planning

Urban models useful in transportation planning are reviewed, focusing especially on ones that are based on geographic information system (GIS) software. Then UPlan, a simple model written by the authors in the ArcView GIS, is described. Several different applications of UPlan are outlined, involving transportation planning and analysis of the growthinducing effects of new facilities, to demonstrate its use. Such models are coming into use for National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 assessments and for joint land use and transportation planning.

Politics and technical uncertainty in transportation investment analysis

Cities often opt for rail transit even when agency evaluations conclude that other alternatives are superior in performance and efficiency. The choice of light rail transit (LRT) in Sacramento, California serves as a case study. When adjustments are made for overstated assumptions and irregular manipulations of data in the Sacramento evaluation, the LRT project is somewhat inferior on all technical grounds to other proposed alternatives. This article asks why a local decision was made to pursue the light rail option. The LRT choice is examined in the broader context of government structure and decision-making, earmarked state and federal funding, and local planning. It is shown that local decision makers have broad economic and social concerns that are not incorporated into standard technical evaluations, and that they are provided with highly uncertain projections, especially for ridership. Not surprisingly, local politicians were skeptical of the technical evaluations and weighed local values and strategic funding factors heavily in their decision. While we do not advocate porkbarreling, we believe that the choice of LRT, to the extent that it reflected legitimate local concerns, was valid. We suggest improvements in transit evaluation methods and observe that the 1984 changes in UMTA evaluation procedures appear to consider uncertainty correctly and to include local political support in a meaningful way.

The effects of new high-occupancy vehicle lanes on travel and emissions

Many urban regions in the U.S. are planning to build extensive networks of new high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) freeway lanes. Past modelling efforts are reviewed and travel demand simulations by the authors are used to demonstrate that new HOV lanes may increase travel (vehicle-miles) and increase emissions when compared to transit alternatives. Recommendations are made for better travel demand modelling methods for such evaluations.

UNCERTAIN SOCIOECONOMIC PROJECTIONS USED IN TRAVEL DEMAND AND EMISSIONS MODELS: COULD PLAUSIBLE ERRORS RESULT IN AIR QUALITY NONCONFORMITY?

Abstract A sensitivity analysis of plausible errors in population, employment, fuel price, and income projections is conducted using the travel demand and emissions models of the Sacramento, CA, USA, region for their transportation plan. The results of the analyses indicate that plausible error ranges for household income and fuel prices are not a significant source of uncertainty with respect to the regions travel demand and emissions projections. However, plausible errors in population and employment projections (within approximately one standard deviation) may result in the regions transportation plan not meeting the conformity test for nitrogens of oxides (NO x ) in the year 2005 (i.e., an approximately 16% probability). This outcome is also possible in the year 2015 but less likely (within approximately two standard deviations or a 2.5% probability). Errors in socioeconomic projections are only one of many sources of error in travel demand and emissions models. These results have several policy implications. First, regions like Sacramento that meet their conformity tests by a very small margin should rethink new highway investment and consider contingency transportation plans that incorporate more aggressive emissions reduction policies. Second, regional transportation planning agencies should conduct sensitivity analyses as part of their conformity analysis to make explicit significant uncertainties in the methods and to identify the probability of their transportation plan not conforming. Third, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) should clarify the interpretation of “demonstrate” conformity of transportation plans; that is, specify the level of certainty that it considers a sufficient demonstration of conformity.

TRAVEL, EMISSIONS, AND WELFARE EFFECTS OF TRAVEL DEMAND MANAGEMENT MEASURES

Land-use intensification measures and pricing policies are compared and combined with high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane and light-rail transit expansion scenarios in the Sacramento, California, region and evaluated against travel, emissions, consumer welfare, and equity criteria. A state-of-the-practice regional travel demand model is used to simulate the travel effects of these scenarios. The Small and Rosen method of obtaining consumer welfare is applied to the mode-choice models in the travel model. The most politically feasible scenarios were found to provide at best only modest improvements in congestion and emissions. Welfare losses were obtained for the HOV lane scenario, suggesting that care must be taken in project planning to ensure that savings in travel time are large enough to offset the unobserved cost of increased travel by car. Transit investment and supportive land-use intensification provided larger reductions in congestion and emissions and increased consumer welfare for all income classes. As a group, the scenarios that included pricing policies provided the greatest reduction in travel delay and emissions, increased total consumer welfare, and imposed losses on the lowest income group. However, it may be possible to combine pricing policies with more significantly expanded transit and roadway capacity and compensatory payments to increase consumer welfare for all income classes.

EVALUATION OF ADVANCED TRANSIT ALTERNATIVES USING CONSUMER WELFARE

This study looks at improved or new public transit services that make use of information and automation technologies. Advanced transit information, demand responsive transit, and personal rapid transit are examined. In general, the literature reviewed suggests such technologies could potentially result in reduction of congestion and air polluting emissions; however, very few quantitative analyses of these benefits have been carried out.

Growth Phasing and Resistance to Infill Development in Sacramento County

Abstract Comprehensive plans in the United States often have not had much effect on subsequent land use decisions. Sacramento County, California, adopted a strict growth phasing plan in 1973. The plan was implemented successfully through 1981, but resistance to infill development is beginning to reduce its effectiveness. We analyze and interpret the factors that led to successful implementation in the past and identify causes of the current problems; the study indicates that growth phasing is easier to accomplish than infill development. We then suggest improvements in state and local legislation.

Social impact assessment of regional plans: a review of methods and issues and a recommended process

Social impact assessment (SIA) is defined and related to other policy analysis techniques. Conceptual problems in conducting SIA are reviewed. Various SIA methods are identified and evaluated for their probable effectiveness in assessing regional plans. Regional planning conditions are identified and constraints to, and demands on, SIA are examined. A strategy for SIA is proposed which uses public inputs during cyclical planning iterations for efficiently identifying and assessing the most important social impacts.

The Growth Phasing Program of Sacramento County

Abstract General plans usually have not had much effect in controlling subsequent land use decisions. Studies are needed which empirically determine the effectiveness of general plans and which attempt to identify reasons for success or failure in implementation. Sacramento County, California, adopted a growth phasing plan in 1973. The effectiveness of the plan was evaluated by examining text and map amendments, zoning conformance, subdivision permits, and land assessment changes for the 1973-1977 period. Legal and political factors leading to successful plan implementation were analyzed in terms of current propositions in planning theory.